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"Half the people in the world are walking around blind pretending they can see"

That gem was spoken to me by a drunk who use to hang out by the bus stop I use to take to High School each morning. For a drunk he was very profound and I often wonder if he was really a drunk or was he sent there to drop knowledge into my brain.

In retrospect he was probably just a drunk, but I always latched on to a couple of his random quotes. This particular one I always try to use when analyzing sports. The point being is that even though your eyes are open that doesn't mean that you are seeing what is going on.

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There is no perfect way to make predictions when it comes to sports (trust me I know better than most), but if you really pay attention and don't let the white noise distract you, you can see where upset will happen.

There were a couple of simple reasons why Shane Mosley pulled off a huge upset of Antonio Margarito.

1- Margarito turned in Tony Montana

Just a beautiful fight for Sugar Shane Mosley. What more can you say? I will have more to say, but right now it is 1:23am here in STL and I am fighting to get this video to you. Hopefully by tomorrow I will have the entire fight because it was a site to behold.

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Fight is over. Two things. First I was right and secondly can you believe what you saw? Video of the fight coming soon.

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There is an art to picking an upset and boxing is one of the easiest sports to spot one when it is coming. That is why I was able to pick the two biggest boxing upsets of 2008.

Antonio Margarito over Miguel Cotto
And

Manny Pacquiao over Oscar De La Hoya

Now I am about to pick the 1st major upset of 2009 (sorry Arizona fans you may or may not get a surprise next week with my Super Bowl pick) and it is so easy to see you should be taking your entire paycheck, your tax refund (don't front you do rapid refund), your baby momma tax refund check or whatever money you won on my 2-0 NFL Championship weekend picks and put it on:

SHANE MOSLEY BEATING ANTONIO MARGARITO

You are probably thinking to yourself:

"But BonaFide one Cotto beat Mosley and Magarito beat Cotto so this is an easy win for Margarito right?"

My friend that is why I am paid 25c an hour to run this site because sometimes you have to look beyond the obvious.

When predicting an upset you have to look at three key factors:

Miguel Cotto tried to be Floyd Mayweather and what we learned is that Miguel Cotto isn't Floyd Mayweather. It is one thing to run, but it is another thing to run and get hit. Cotto figured out fairly quickly that he wasn't going to be able to stand in the middle of the ring and brawl with Antonio Margarito. So a boxer known for systematically destroying his opponent's will to fight did the unthinkable. He got on his bicycle and ran. At that point, I knew he was destined to lose.

Go outside and run 100 yards forward and then run 100 yards backwards and tell me which one puts more of a strain on your body. If you are someone like Floyd Mayweather who has been boxing going backwards his entire career, it is second nature. But it was going to be extremely difficult for someone like Cotto who has been going forward the majority of his career to try to switch up. You add to that getting hit in his body, jaw, arms, shoulders or wherever else the brick-handed Margarito could find, it added up to a long night.

One thing the biased HBO broadcast never brought up was that, while COMPUBOX records clean shots to the head and body, it has no way to know how many of those shots that miss but hit other parts of the body have an effect on a boxer. Cotto may have landed more "clean shots", but I don't care who you are, if you get hit with 130 shots a round, regardless if they are clean or not, that is going to take its toll.

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Margarito took Cotto's best shot and kept coming. From the middle of the first round to the time Cotto took a knee, Margarito just kept coming and kept throwing. It would have been hard for any boxer including Floyd Mayweather to be able to stand up to that kind of pressure over 11 rounds. Margarito wasn't the better "boxer", but he was the better "fighter". He didn't win because of one great punch (even though that uppercut was sick). He won because he took Cotto's heart and soul. To me, that made it a much greater victory than if it were just a spectacular one-shot knockout.

It is ironic, to me, that Cotto was defeated in the same way he had defeated all his other opponents. He had will, desire and heart taken from him. It was pretty classless for him to leave the ring, but when you've been embarrassed and, in essence, given up to the point where you didn't want to take the pounding anymore, I shouldn't have been surprised his final run was right out of the ring.

Margarito has been saying for years he was the most feared and ducked fighter in boxing. Today, though, he doesn't have to worry about being ducked because they all will have to come to him and I guarantee they aren't looking forward to it.



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When your Bona Fide Sports Expert was a young lad growing up, he liked to impress people at family gatherings by doing a Michael Jackson "Beat It" impersonation. One time, during a Christmas gathering, in the middle of my MJ spin, I slipped, fell on my stomach and knocked the wind out of me. It felt as if I were dying. I couldn't breathe; I couldn't move; and I was basically paralyzed for seemed like hours, but, in reality, was only about thirty seconds.

So, I can imagine how a boxer feels when, after getting battered around for multiple rounds, he gets hit with the perfect body shot. Can you even imagine the unthinkable pain and agony that must feel like?

Last night, we saw two of the best welterweights on the world destroy their opponents with picture-perfect body punches. Miguel Cotto, who is known for his vicious body attack, just overwhelmed Alfonso Gomez who had no business being in the ring with Cotto. It was a glorified sparring match. Cotto delivered one of the prettiest uppercuts to the body you will ever see. That blow put Gomez down for the 2nd time in the fight. The rest was just academic with the medical staff finally ending the massacre in the 5th round.

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More impressive to me, though, was the performance of Antonio Margarito who simply walked down, through and over Kermit Cintron, whom he had knocked out three years previously. There is nothing more dangerous than a boxer who can take his opponent's best shot and just keep coming. That is exactly what Margarito did to Cintron. When Margarito delivered a picture perfect left hook to the body, the shot was so devastating that Cintron was spitting up blood. Now that is a vicious body blow!

While Money Mayweather is out counting his WWE check, Cotto and Margarito are on a collision course that will be worth whatever the PPV price will be.

Written By Robert Littal
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November 2009

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