AFC WEST PREVIEW

As most training camps have broken – or about to break – and pre-season games are upon us, we can now start to get a better gauge as what to look for around the NFL. Most divisions will be hotly contested [see: NFC East, AFC South]. Unfortunately for the AFC West, it’s the San Diego Chargers and everyone else. This could easily be the worst division in the League by season’s end, mainly because the three other dregs are in transition and, well, aren’t very good to begin with. Here’s our take on this division…

FIRST PLACE

San Diego…The Chargers were an 8-8 division winner last year, mostly because of their porous 2-4 start in 2008. Their malaise, however, could be attributed to nagging injuries to quarterback Philip Rivers, running back LaDainian Tomlinson, and tight end Antonio Gates; not to mention a season-ending injury to stud rush linebacker Shawn Merriman. Well, scarily for the AFC West, all are healthy and hell-bent on getting back to the upper-echelon of the conference. The Chargers are so poised to uncoil this season, even Tomlinson is begging to play pre-season snaps…something he hasn’t done in five seasons. Many outsiders are writing him off because of his uneven 2008. His 1,100 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns would be a solid season for many backs but because the future Hall of Famer turned in an all-time season as recently as two years ago, he’s being seen as an after-thought. Well, Tomlinson is healthy, agitated, and ready for a breakout. Same with Philip Rivers, who’s giddy Gates is healthy again. The swaggering Rivers has also grown solid chemistry with number-one wideout Vincent Jackson [59 catches, 1,098 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns in ‘08]. Simply put, the Chargers own the rest of the division, as they routinely sweep the season series, and should already be looking past this division and onto the Pittsburghs and New Englands of the conference.

Prediction: 12-4, deep playoff run.

SECOND PLACE

Oakland…If the Raiders show as much fight on the field in 2009 as the coaches do in meetings, they’ll be a potential spoiler. No, they aren’t playoff-bound and, no, they won’t sniff the Chargers, but it’s plausible to think they can ride the momentum they had at the end of the 2008 campaign when they ended on a two-game winning streak. Last season was a turbulent time with the sudden firing of Lane Kiffin and the hiring of then-interim head coach Tom Cable, so Oakland brass should be proud of some rare resiliency. Of course, as is their custom, they now have bigger problems to deal with…literally. Their bulky quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, has been less-than impressive since being the overall number-one pick in the 2007 Draft. Reports of the super-sized QB being as heavy as 300 pounds were never confirmed but just on sheer first-sight, it’s not inconceivable. Russell was never a lithe signal-caller at LSU; was never a workout wonder; and had questions coming into the draft about his leadership and conditioning. It’s no wonder the Raiders brought in accomplished journeyman Jeff Garcia into camp this year. The sometimes cantankerous Garcia let it be known he feels he’s a starter and isn’t in Oakland to hold hands. He did, however, say he’s aware the Raiders have a lot stocked into Russell and he’s willing to help and support the young QB. But should Russell falter – as many are anticipating – Oakland will have a full-blown quarterback controversy…and they never help or galvanize a young fragile team, which the Raiders are. Throw in the fact Oakland doesn’t have a true number-one wideout and things could get ugly on offense. First-round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey came into camp late and promptly developed the dropsies – something that also plagued the speedster at Maryland. What will help the young QB, however, is a rushing attack that is vastly improved – and finally healthy. Justin Fargas [853 rushing yards in ‘08], Darren McFadden [499 yards], and the bruising Michael Bush [421 yards, including a career-high 177 in the season finale that knocked the Bucs out of playoff contention], will make Russell’s job easier and — in theory — keep games close. Look for an offense that will grind it out, run a lot of play-action, and play stout – hopefully disciplined — defense. The Raiders aren’t back to “a commitment to excellence” level yet but they’re on the right track.

Prediction: 7-9, no playoffs.

THIRD PLACE

Kansas City…The new-look Chiefs have a new coach [Todd Haley], new G.M. [Scott Pioli], new QB [Matt Cassel], and a new defense [3-4]. Chiefs Nation is certainly banking that this transition clearly hurdles last season’s 2-14 mark. The addition of Cassel was expected [because of his New England ties] yet somewhat quizzical because incumbent starter, Tyler Thigpen, played admirably in 2008. Thigpen came in cold off the bench to throw 18 touchdowns and 2,068 yards – mostly in the second half of the season. Cassel, who had a Pro Bowl-type 2008 season with 21 touchdowns and 3,693 yards passing, is indirectly responsible for Denver’s detonation [more on that later]. Seeing how far the Chiefs have fallen offensively is puzzling, considering Kansas City was an offensive juggernaut until last season’s debacle. But the addition of Haley, who oversaw the Cardinals’ historic offense last season, has given its fanbase a sign of hope. Gone will be the pound-and-ground offense of a Larry Johnson 300+-carry season. Haley will open things up and try to re-incarnate the spread offense that Cassel ran so well last season when the Pats lost Tom Brady for the year. Some within the organization secretly feel Johnson’s tread is about worn and are pining for an enlarged role for Jamaal Charles, who played well in spot-duty last season. Though the Chiefs traded away future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons over the off-season, they still have a go-to receiver in the budding Dwayne Bowe. The former LSU star had a breakout season with 82 catches for 1,022 yards and seven touchdowns – and this with a QB carousel last season. Defensively, the switch to the 3-4 from a 4-3 will be a work in progress. You just don’t pick up the intricacies of the 3-4 over the course of one season. The 3-4 is to defense what the West Coast offense is to the other side of the ball. It’ll take at least three seasons to get the proper personnel and run it efficiently. That being said, the Chiefs went about building their foundation the right way, drafting former LSU star defensive lineman Tyson Jackson in April to team with his former Tigers teammate Glenn Dorsey. Both are top-five picks and both will man the ends in the 3-4. Kansas City will be markedly improved simply because Pioli won’t allow them to be the league’s bottom-feeder for long.

Prediction: 6-10, no playoffs.

FOURTH PLACE

Denver Broncos…Oh how the mediocre have fallen. The final month of the 2008 campaign was such a train wreck that they fired the only coach who won Super Bowls for them; jettisoned their franchise quarterback for 60 cents on the dollar; blew up their defensive structure; and alienated a great chunk of their fanbase just for good measure. Seriously, the Broncos are in such shambles they’ve turned into the Lindsay Lohan of the NFL. Even Raider fans are saying the Broncos are dysfunctional. Had Denver won just one of its remaining four games, they would’ve backed into the 2008 playoffs. With a three-game lead and four to play, all Denver needed was a single win to sew up the division. Naturally, they collapsed and were trounced by the Chargers in the season finale, which was effectively a play-in game. That led to rapid-fire moves: Mike Shanahan was shockingly fired soon after; Josh McDaniels was brought in from New England; the new coach subsequently flirted with Cassel, the guy he coached-up the previous season; Jay Cutler had his feelings/ego hurt and claimed McDaniels lied to him about trying to trade him; owner Pat Bowlen wasn’t anywhere to be found during this drama and when he decided to get involved, it was too late and Cutler wouldn’t even return his phone calls; the Broncos then brought in former Niners head coach Mike Nolan to run the defense. Problem was, Shanahan ran the 4-3 and the Broncos are ill-equipped to run the 3-4 right now. On paper, Denver has loads of talent on offense but lack it on defense, so expect shootouts. They have the best young talent in the league at offensive tackles with Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris. Last season the rookie Clady and the second-year Harris allowed 1 ½ sacks total, spearheading an offensive line that allowed a league-best 11 sacks total. The receivers are poised to be a poor man’s New England in McDaniels’s spread offense with the unhappy yet spectacular Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall, the electric Eddie Royal, and the consistent Brandon Stokley. All quarterback Kyle Orton has to do is not scratch the Ferrari. Unfortunately, the offense already accrued a few nicks and dings because the guy they brought in to replace the Pro Bowler Cutler, was booed in his first scrimmage at Mile High. Then to instill even less confidence with the fanbase, Orton threw three interceptions in the opening pre-season game, Saturday. The tantalizing thing was that Orton was on fire his opening possession, leading the offense inside the Niners’ 10 yard line before throwing a horrendous pick in the endzone. And the following two possessions saw Orton throw worse interceptions than the previous. Topping off that catastrophic evening was the sight of first-round pick Knowshon Moreno limping off the field after just two series. Moreno, who missed the first part of training camp with a rookie holdout, is listed as having a sprained MCL and could be out up to two weeks. So, other than that, Denver seems in good standing. It’s like asking Mrs. Abraham Lincoln, “so other than that, how was the play?” We’d say hang in there, Orange Crush Nation, but unlike that famous Shannon Sharpe quote, unfortunately help is not on the way.       

Prediction: 4-12, they’re already on the clock.