I know the season’s over now, but a few things before we move on:

1.  Don’t be too surprised at Pete Carroll leaving.

My general view for some time has been that the potential for long term success is always greater at the college level at the pros, and that any coach in a good college situation should stay there.  If you recruit well, win enough games for your school’s tastes, and stay out of trouble, you can pretty much stay as long as you want.  In the NFL, even the best coaches get burned out or get fired as soon as things go south, which they eventually do.  So I thought Carroll would never leave USC, despite the yearly rumors about him going back to the pros.  I figured that a guy who was barely above .500 as an NFL coach but was a huge winner in college would stay where he didn’t have to worry about his GM sticking him with some sorry first round draft pick and forcing him to play the guy.

But now Carroll is gone, and after thinking it over I see why.  His assistants were coming and going left and right; a lot of the guys he built the program with are head coaches in other places, so now he’s got a staff with a lot people who are unknowns and probably looking to resume build.  Mark Sanchez’s abrupt early departure had to rattle him good.  He’d counted on having Sanchez around for another year or two, and his leaving screwed up everything.  Then there’s the competition.  USC once ruled the Pac-10 with no challengers.  Now Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford are there along with improved programs at Arizona and Washington.  Rolling to a 12-0 season is no longer guaranteed as it was just two years ago.  And finally, there is the NCAA sheriff.  The Reggie Bush investigation is still going on, and who knows what other shenanigans might be going on with other players.  The hammer may be coming soon.

It all adds up to Carroll seeing that it was time to get out of dodge.  The NFL came calling, and if it doesn’t work out he can always go back to college.

2.  It’s Bama’s turn for the next few years.

Miami was top dog from 2000 to 2002, USC had their turn from 2003 to 2006, and Florida had a good run from 2006 to 2010.  Now it’s Alabama’s turn.  The way things go, you get a few years to rule the college football world.  Then several factors start to take their toll.  You lose out on recruits because when you’re two deep at every position already, no one new wants to come in and sit for two or even three years.  You lose assistants to head coaching opportunities.  Your conference rivals get tired of being slapped around, especially the ones with rich histories, and finally get their acts together.  And if you broke any rules to get on top, the dirt starts to come out and the NCAA starts looking for blood.

But the next few years should be really good for the Crimson Tide.  Their biggest conference rival, Florida, will likely be taking a step back now that Tim Tebow is gone and Urban Meyer is having health problems, and their other conference opponents are a notch below for the time being.  Their biggest out of conference rivals are going through changes as well.  The best teams in the Big 12 are all losing major players to the NFL (McCoy from Texas, Bradford from Oklahoma, and Suh from Nebraska).  USC is done for the near future, the Big Ten isn’t national championship caliber, and the Big East and ACC might as well be mid-major conferences.  Look for the Tide to be preseason favorites for the next two to three years, and at least one more title.

3.  It’s head coach hunting season

In the era of cell phone cameras and youtube, no coach is safe.  And if you’re at a midlevel football school where the administration does not worship at the altar of the BCS, or you’re not successful enough at one such school, then any accusation can be your downfall.  Two coaches have been fired for such actions, and more will come.  Too many schools are tied in for big money with coaches that any chance they get to dump the guy will be taken.  This is an easy way to rid yourself of a huge contract, and it’s going to happen a lot more often if these guys don’t wise up.