Warning: Some in-depth analysis. not a football junkie, don’t read…
Alrite, its not just for football junkies, little white lie. Its for everyone. Now time for some analysis.
It’s week 3 in the NFL, where did time go? We have seen two weeks worth of games and are starting to see teams true colors, massive disappointment and maximum pleasure is rampant around league. Alrite, now for the good stuff, Fantasy Football analysis and tips. I want to make you guys pros at this. Rules for 2010 season which should have been given 3 weeks ago if not sooner, my bad. Like the saying goes, better late than never….
Always start players on teams who are facing teams in the bottom 1/3 in defensive, you know: Arizona, Jags, Bills, Browns, Lions, and Rams. Be wary of starting any players against Steelers, Ravens, and Jets D. Know that RBs playing against MIN D is tough sleeding and Colts RBs have a chance to have big game/no game(Never know when Peyton is going to go pass happy and make Rbs pass blocker.). Playing WRs receivers, not named Fitzgerald or Megatron, who play with horrible and/or rookie quarterbacks is setting yourself up for fantasy failure. In fact, playing anyone on Bills, Jags, Browns, Arizona (Rbs avoid like plague, play only in emergency bye week situation) is sketchy nowadays good. Three running backs systems(Cowboys) suck, so do two running back systems(Just about every team especially Panthers & Gmen) Carries vary week to week, guess wisely in picks…. Rule of Thumb: If you have a consensus Top 10 QB, Top 25 Wr, or 10 Rb please start them. If a player is injured you might want to pick up their back up b/c of their possible sleeper status. That what fantasy experts do….
Ok those are the rules. Below I summed “experts” picks of who will be good or bad this week. Lets take a look at what fantasy experts think of this week’s fantasy projections.
First, some fantasy surprises from last week. Jahvid Best, Jason Snelling, Lesean McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Mike Tolbert, and Kevin Walter. No one saw them having a big performnce. Ok, not true, knowing McCoy was facing Lions D who was crazy enough not to start him? Also no one foresaw injuries that allowed some of these players to get in the game, if you did and started the back-ups, where did you buy your crystal ball. I’m serious…Everyone but Sanchez & Snelling should be on your team now.
Fantasy Disappointments: Too many to name.
Now the experts picks.
First up, TMR.He has love/hate sections. He prefrences picks by saying these are players he ranks higher or lower than anyone else. Lets see those picks.
Loves: “McNabb, Orton, Josh Freeman, Moreno(injured, out for sunday), Matt Forte, Shon Greene, Fred Taylor, Santanna Moss, Hines Ward, Malcolm Floyd, Louis Murphy, Mark Clayton, Maclin, Witten, Carlson, Dustin Keller, Mercedes Lewis, Arizona DST, and KC DST. <-Lots of picks. FIRST, JOSH FREEMAN VERSUS STEELERS D???? Steelers D is probably best in the league. suggest not starting anyone on TB. As for Orton he is so underrated its not even funny. Decent QB who gets it done. That being said, I don’t know about the love this week. Colts against Den who maybe be out both starting corners is scary. They might be down big and you know what that means. Freeney and Mathis have green light to go up the field and get QB. They don’t have to respect the run game. Eli didn’t fair too well last week. I don’t know if Orton will either. But you have to believe he will make some plays. I can’t really say I like anyone he loves besides Maclin(vs Jags) Clayton(vs.WSH) and Moss(vs. STL) I don’t know about any other picks. I definitely don’t like the running backs. TEs an DST are always sketchy.
Hates: Tom Brady, Favre, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Colts passing game, Ryan Matthews(injured), Hakeem Nicks, T.O., Meachem, Kellen Winslow. I don’t know about not liking Brady. Jets D stepped up last half. Plus, unless you have one member of The Holy Trinities of Qbs(manning, rodgers, and Bress) on your roster why would you ever think not playing Brady. Favre has Lions, you have to believe he has a good game. The rest of picks are ehh picks. They are questionable to begin with. Not really going out on a limb. Joseph Addai owners know this.
Next expert to look at Mr.Fabiano, NFL.com fantasy expert. He has Start/Sit for each position. Now lets analyze his picks. Remember what I said about starting players against the worst Defenses(Arizona, Jags, Bills, Browns, Lions, and Rams) and Best Defense(Steelers, Ravens, and Jets). Also remember what I said about starting players on Bills, Jags, Browns, Arizona(NOT GOOD unless if emergency bye week or really favorable matchup). Alot of his picks follow this trend. So excluding those picks. Want to guess how many of his picks disappear? Yea, most, see yourself. I should do same for TMR, too late now. Just a quick skim he doesn’t follow my fantasy rules besides a few picks, to my surprise, check yourself. Alright, back to Fabiano’s picks.
First his start of the week is Mike Vick against Jags. I can’t honestly think of another player on D besides Rashean Mathis. Of course his expert analysis. “Their defense has been one of the worst in the league against the pass, allowing an average of better than 17 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Unless you have a truly elite signal-caller, Vick should be in your starting lineup.” Thank you Captain Obvious. Vick thorched Lions who had more talented D last week. Expect more of that this week, especially more rushing yards. 90yds rushing seem a safe bet. Alright moving on to other picks.
Qbs starts:Matt Ryan(vs NO), Carson Palmer(CAR), Orton(Colts). Matt Ryan is ok. Saints defense could be had, the loss alot of playmaking ability of Darren Sharper is huge. Alex Smith besides a few mistakes by his players looked good against Saints D. Matt Ryan > Alex Smith. Palmer, ehhhhhhhhh, Panthers are down. Worth a look at. He has Orton as sleeper, need I say more. Always a decent option. Broncos might be down big against Colts so might be passing lots.
QB sits: Eli(titans), V.Y.(Giants),Hassleback(vs SD), and Cutler(vs. GB). He and I quote says that Titans D has “allowed only 5.5 fantasy pts to Qbs this year.” The Titans vaunted D has faced elite quarterbacks like Jason Campbell(now benched) and Dennis Dixon(injured)/Charlie Batch(8th string) so far, good defense or bad QBs? I think the latter. Eli gets Mr.Reliable TE Kevin Boss back this game. He is great at blocking and make clutch catches. Should help run game, which helps play action, which helps passing. Think twice before benching Eli. As for V.Y., I would be leery of starting him. Even at his best he has moderate fantasy numbers. I agree with sit. Hassleback eh. Culter, I don’t know. I personally thought he would be killed facing Cowboys pass rushers. He proved he can handle pressure and make plays. Clay Matthews is probably going to sack him 8 times(actually 2.5) though. Somebody have icebath ready for Cutler Monday Night.
Running Backs Starts: Pierre Thomas(vs. Falcons), Hightower(vs.Raiders) and Tolbert(vs.Seahawks). Pierre Thomas why not, post Reggie Bush offense will rely on him more. Have to believe he doesn’t get more rushes and catches as result. Falcons D is OK but not great. Good pick. Hightower????????? He cites that Hightower has been a valuable player. Does he know that 100 of 169 rush yds came on two plays(80,20)? What are the chances of this happening again. Raiders have allowed long run plays against Chris Johnson because he’s Chris Johnson. Hightower is no Chris Johnson. Did I mention he lost 2 fumbles week 1 vs. Rams. I highly suggest against starting Hightower. As for Mr.Tolbert, he will be getting more carries but is he going to be any good? Last week he had good stats against Jags. Seattle defense is a little better and have a week to gameplan for him. I see Rivers chucking the rock all around the field and maybe at Goaline Tolbert punches ball in. Then again, this is virtually same line that blocked for LT and we saw happened last few years. Don’t get too crazy starting him over top Rbs unless you know, you have a RB facing better D’s like Jahvid Best vs.Vikings or Foster vs. Cowboys. He is better option in these cases.
Wrs must starts: Coltson(vs. Atl), Ochocinco(vs. CAR), Malcolm Floyd(SEA), Mark Clayton(vs Redskins). If you don’t start Coltson be mad at yourself. You know Brees is always looking for him in the endzone. Could get a few catches and TD. Always a good guy to have. Ocho vs Car, ok…There D is going to be on the field all-day unless Jimmy Clausen could actually sustain drives. Corners will get tired, corners will be beat, probably deep. Decent pick. Malcolm Floyd, who else does SD have to throw besides Gates? Exactly…He’s bound to get some touches. Alot? Who knows…6 catches in two games. I wouldn’t necessarily trust him. The Sam Bradford to Mark Clayton connection is intriguing me. First game together they had lots of catches but no TD’s. Last game they had 2 catches and 2 Tds. There has to be a happy medium this game. I really like the pick especially against Redskins porous pass D. Cowboys and Texans lit them up. Expect more of the same. Not ready to call Clayton this year’s Miles Austin but keep a look out.
Wrs sits: Crabtree(Chiefs), T.J. Whoseyamama(vs.Browns), Braylon Edwards(vs.MIA), Berrian(vs.Lions), Dwayne Bowe(vs.SF). Crabtree, TJ, and Berrian all have same issue. Qbs don’t seem to look for them but you have to beleive this is the week that they get right against bad D’s. Ok, I can’t say that with a straight face. I can’t trust T.J. against any Defense. Braylon “the beard” Edwards is being benched for first quarter if not more “supposedly” but even if he played all game; Miami corners are underrated. They match up well versus any group of receivers. As for Dwayne Bowe, Cassell has um, how do I put this nicely, sucked. 49ers D kinda slowed down Brees(NO had no TDs in second half) and remember, bad Qbs affects WRs ability to get points. Smart pick.
He has picks for TEs, K’s, and DST’s but they are all crapshoots. Unless you have Antonio Gates nothing is guaranteed at TE. As for K’s, who had Mike Nugent making 5 FGs last week? Exactly. If you want to pick a good defense(if don’t have any of the top three) start D’s who face bad offenses with bad QBs(especially against rookie qbs) and sit D’s who start against Good O’s(Colts, Texans, Saints, and Packers). Got it?
Like I say time and time again, anyone who claims to be an expert on the inexact science of sports is um wrong. When the games are over we will analyze picks to see if experts were right or wrong. Hope you guys learned something. Fantasy is about probabilities and some common sense reasoning. Your opinion is as good as alot of so called experts as long as you follow some fantasy maxims you should be alrite.
Now my Picks for fantasy greatness this week(wish me luck). My Fantasy players to look for:
QB(Not Named: Brees, Manning, Rodgers) Eli Manning(vs. Ten), Jay Cutler(vs. Packers)
Rbs: MJD(vs. Eagles: He has to break out this week, see what Jahvid Best did to Eagles D), Cedric Benson(vs.Panters), and Stephen Jackson(vs. WSH).
Wrs :Steve Smith(vs TEN), Austin Collie(vs. DEN: Garcon and Gonzalez are out), Eddie Royal(vs.Colts).
TE: Celek, Zach Miller
Feel free to call me out as a fantasy hack. I’ll be working on a fantasy fail section where we can all collectively call out the “experts” and hold them responsible for our losses. Or if you are your own expert give me your stories. Any and all fantasy fail stories would be nice. You know, let me know if you sat a player and he ended up having a career day or if you lost by two points because Qb threw pick in last 2mins of a game. This should be fun.
PS, follow @Blksportsonline, @adam_schefter, @mortreport, @profootballtalk, @jasonlaconfora @espn for latest fantasy news of players who will be inactive or have injuries. Usually first to report anything. If you can set up on twitter that their tweets get sent to your phone, do it. You won’t be disappointed. Could be vital in picking up players from FA pool or waiver wires. Next week I plan not to add fantasy rules since you know, all you would have memorized it by then. I’ll just streamline post to include other experts. We’ll see how this post goes. Stay tuned..And be a friend, follow me on twitter.