The season hasn’t started out so well for several teams, three of which were favored to run away with their divisions. So the question begs, is it over for them, or is there still life?
San Francisco (1-5): The Niners, expected to win the division easily, got off to a horrible 0-5 start before finally winning this week over the Raiders. Even at 1-5, they are only two and a half games back of the division leading Arizona and Seattle. They have 8-8 talent, and they’re in a division where 8 or 9 wins should be enough to clinch it. So they’ll need to go 7-3 or 8-2 to be in the conversation. Is it doable? The rest of their schedule has seven very winnable games (at Carolina, two vs. St. Louis and Arizona, home against Seattle, home vs. Tampa Bay), one possibly winnable game at home vs. Denver, and two likely losses at San Diego and Green Bay. So on paper there are seven or eight possible victories there.
And their competition? Seattle has eleven games left, three of which they shouldn’t win (Giants, Saints, Falcons); the other eight are 50/50, for a team with 6 to 8 win talent. Can they get six wins out of those eleven games? Yes. The surprising Rams have to go to Denver and to New Orleans, but other than that everything else is doable. And the Cardinals have to travel to Minnesota and Kansas City, while facing Dallas at home. The rest is manageable. If you give every losses where it’s obvious you get Seattle at 3-5, St. Louis at 3-5, Arizona at 3-4, and San Fran at 1-7. While I can see any of the other three teams winning five more games to get to 8-8, I just can’t seen the Niners winning all of their winnable games to get to 8-8 or 9-7. They’re done.
San Diego (2-4): Like San Fran, the Chargers were supposed to win the division easy. They’ve finished first five out of the past six years, and the talent disparity between them and their division rivals hasn’t shown any real signs of narrowing. But right now they sit at 2-4 with losses to Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, and Kansas City by a combined 25 points while their two wins are by 25 and 31 points. Clearly this is an issue of focus and a lack of urgency and playing down to your opponents. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be 6-0 right now. They should still be able to win the division with nine wins; can it happen?
They have some tough dates ahead at the Colts, at Houston, at Cincinnati, and at home against New England and Tennessee. But they have four very winnable games in their division and a home date with San Francisco. They have the talent to win all five of the easier games and get three of the harder ones. And based on their history, it’s not crazy to expect them to pull it off. The rest of their division still isn’t very good. Yes, the Chiefs are 3-2 right now but I’m not a believer in them over 16 games, even though their schedule is somewhat favorable. The Bolts aren’t done yet, but they have to get right quickly.
Dallas (1-4): How bout them Cowboys! Picked to win the division handily and maybe even host the Super Bowl in their own stadium, the Cowboys are a loss or two away from getting ready for 2011. They continue to be undone by stupid penalties, bad turnovers, and bad playcalling, and have lost four games by a combined 23 points. They’re first in the NFC in passing and total offense, and second in total defense. And yet that hasn’t mattered as they surrendered the winning margin twice on returns (vs. Washington and Minnesota) and a third time on touchdown set up by a big return (vs. Tennessee). They also lost the turnover battle nine to one in their four losses. Yikes. You eliminate those little things and they’re probably 5-0.
Their chances for a turnaround? 50/50. They have the talent (at least on paper) to run the table, even with games against teams as tough as the Giants and Colts still on the schedule. I count four games they should win (Jacksonville, Detroit, Arizona, Washington), which would put them at 5-4. So the season comes down to two games against the Eagles and Giants, and single games against the Colts, Saints, and Packers. Can they win five out of those seven? On paper yes, but in reality probably not. 8-8 or 9-7 looks more likely, which probably won’t be enough to win their division. Sorry Cowboy fans, but the only way your team is going to see the Super Bowl is if they buy tickets.