This one has the potential to be the fight of the year, but in the end I believe Sergio Martinez and here is why.
1- One Shot
Sergio Martinez is 37 years old, his opportunities to make himself into a cash cow in boxing are fading. If he loses to JCC he will never get a rematch even if is controversial loss or close loss.
He literally has one shot to make an impact or those possible fights with Mayweather, Pacquiao, Cotto or even an Andre Ward go bye bye.
You see the sense of urgency on his face, he knows that this is his SHOT and isn’t going to blowit.
2- JCC just thinks Martinez is another guy.
How committed is JCC? Does he really understand who he is getting into the ring with it? Is JCC too relaxed? What will happened if he doesn’t match Martinez’s intensity?
I don’t believe JCC is taking the fight seriously enough, maybe because he is young and his ego is out of control, but he is going to find out what happens when you don’t put 100% into your craft.
3- Speed and Power, is better than just power.
While Sergio Martinez is the older fighter he is also the faster fighter. He is also the smaller fighter, but he has shown both the ability to beat up opponents over multiple rounds or knock them cold with one punch.
JCC is a powerful guy, but isn’t a feared puncher, Kelly Pavlik he is not, I believe Martinez will take his punches well.
4- How much weight is too much weight?
I witnessed the weigh in live and it was clear to me that JCC might have went to extreme measures to make weight. He is going to balloon up overnight (he was getting the special shake as soon as he got off the scale). JCC is more of a Super Middleweight and if this fight goes into the championship rounds the rapid weight loss and gain will have an effect.
5- Martinez is just better
JCC has improved and in boxing one punch can change any fight, but more times than not the more skilled fighter wins especially when he is keyed in like Martinez.
Martinez by 11th Round TKO