I want you to think like a businessman.
You sign a contract and the terms are you make a substantial amount of money each time you complete a task. You have to complete six tasks in total over a 30 month time period to collect the full amount of the contract.
The task requires you to beat a particular opponent in a sport that you excel in and you have the ability to choose your opponent. Regardless of who the opponent is, if you complete the task successfully, you receive your money.
What would you do?
Would you choose the six hardest opponents you can find or you would you select opponents that lessen your risk of completing all the tasks?
That is the position Floyd Mayweather is in. Six tasks, six opponents, 30 months and potentially $300 million in his pocket. Most fans don’t care about business, they care about knock down drag out fights. They want to see Mayweather challenge himself against the toughest opponents possible, to back up his boasts about being the greatest.
They want to see Mayweather in the ring with a Canelo Alvarez, Sergio Martinez or even an Austin Trout, but that is unlikely to happen.
If you should have learned anything from the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight that never was, it is that Mayweather isn’t going to be pressured into doing anything he doesn’t want to do. Doesn’t matter what the fans or media think. Hard to argue with him considering he is making double of what anyone else is making in boxing . Hard to tell someone their plan is failing when they just made $50+ million in a glorified sparring session.
While fans are clamoring for Mayweather to fight Alvarez, I believe the risk/reward element in Mayweather’s brain isn’t going to allow that to happen. The goal is to complete the six tasks and cash out. He has already taken down Robert Guerrero, so who’s next?
If I was a gambling man I believe you will see Mayweather next against Amir Khan or Danny Garcia. Khan has done nothing to deserve a shot at Mayweather, but brings name recognition to the table. Garcia has done more to deserve a shot, but would be moving up in weight and frankly while he is very good fighter, he isn’t an elite fighter.
When Mayweather’s next fight happen? If he truly wants to squeeze in six fights in 30 months, he will need to get back in the ring in the fall/winter of this year.
I think September is a bit ambitious, but possibly an early December date is possible.
While not fighting Canelo will anger some fans and media, it doesn’t seem to bother Mayweather, he is going to make the best business move for him with the less risk involved, regardless of what anyone thinks.