Cowboys Had 99% Win Probability At Start Of Lions Final Drive

Miami Dolphins v Dallas Cowboys


So exactly how big was the Cowboys late game collapse against the Lions on Sunday afternoon? Here’s the numbers…

The Cowboys quite literally had a 99% chance of winning the game late in the 4th after Stafford turned the ball over on downs with 1:33 left on the clock.

Deadspin reported the following mathematical conundrum:

After Stafford threw incomplete on 4th and 12 with 1:33 left in the fourth quarter on his own 34-yard-line, the Advanced NFL Stats Win Probability machine had the Cowboys with a 99 percent probability of winning the game. (Win Probability is calculated using a variety of factors, including score, time remaining, down and distance, and field position.) It was down to 85 by the time the Cowboys had to settle for a field goal after taking just 26 seconds off the clock, but back to 93 percent following Stafford’s spike after hitting Calvin Johnson for a moderate gain. Then, off the cliff it went.

One hates to add insult to injury for Cowboys nation, but it seems even the laws of probability have given up hope for the squad late in games.

But on a happier note, the Cowboys still through it all hold top rank in the NFC East, so all isn’t lost.