The NFL season started last night, and the mere concept of real football has caused the excitement of fantasy football owners to come to a climax. At this point of the season everyone has a clean slate. There will be people who believe the fantasy team they drafted is an unstoppable force, only to have their dreams crushed by injuries and whiffed draft picks. That’s the beautiful thing about this point of the season, no one is neither right nor wrong about the prospectus of their respective teams. Everything an analyst has told you to this point is pure educated speculation.
This time last year, Eddie Lacy was a joke on twitter because of how fat he looked in the preseason, and he finished as the 6th ranked RB in fantasy. One of last year’s preseason darlings, CJ Spiller, finished a dismal ranking of 32nd after being drafted unanimously in the first round. Fantasy drafts are a crapshoot, and this is the main reason why I do not advocate making trades before actual games have been played, owners should let the games play out and use the information that is then gathered to make educated guesses on lineups going forward.
With all of that being said, someone has to fill your lineup for week 1! This isn’t a column that is going to tell you to start Jimmy Graham. If you drafted Graham, you’re starting him. This is here to help you with those tough decisions on potential player lineups. Lets decipher who those players should be with the little bit of information we have:
All statistics are from the ESPN fantasy football database.
Quarterbacks to start:
Nick Foles, Eagles: In 10 starts at QB last season Nick Foles lit the fantasy world on fire with a points per game average of 24.4, and while some analysts believe Foles could be in for a regression season, I would not expect that to come to week 1. Chip Kelley is an offensive genius and has had all off-season to prepare for this Jacksonville defense, expect Foles to shine.
Tom Brady, Patriots: “Tom Terrific” is coming off of what was considered to most a disappointing season. Brady still finished as the 13th ranked QB without Gronk and Danny Amendola for the majority of the season. Brady came into this season as the 10th overall QB with an average draft position (ADP) of 64.8, which means there are very likely people who are debating whether or not to play him. In a Week 15 game against the Dolphins last season, in the midst of the Patriots eventual NFC championship game-run, Brady threw for 364 yards 2 TDs and 1 INT. Expect that Tom Brady to show up Week 1.
Geno Smith, Jets: This is the for those in 2 QB or really deep membered leagues. Smith should have plenty of opportunities to sling the rock around Met Life Stadium Sunday afternoon against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are traveling cross-country west to east to play an early 1:00pm EST 10:00am PST start. Combine that with them starting rookie QB, Derek Carr, and Smith should have a few short field opportunities to get his numbers up.
Quarterbacks to Sit:
Cam Newton, Panthers: Cam Newton is coming off a preseason rib injury that he suffered against the Patriots, add that to his off-season ankle surgery and I cant help but to believe that his rushing numbers might suffer to start the season. Cam Newton is an elite fantasy QB because of his rushing numbers, expect him to build momentum as the season goes along, but he should be on your bench until he proves that he still has some of that mobility.
Andy Dalton, Bengals: Dalton has a really bad history facing the Baltimore Ravens, with career numbers of 5 TD’S and 8 INT’s. The Bengals were known for their deep passing attack under former offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, but under Hue Jackson, they should be a more balanced attack.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Kaepernick has struggled to put up fantasy numbers on the road in his career. Combine that with his struggles in the preseason, and we may have a potential fantasy letdown for week 1. Kaepernick’s favorite target Michael Crabtree is coming into this game banged up, missing practice time this week with a calf injury.
Running Backs to start:
Montee Ball, Broncos: Ball is primed for a big breakout season, and that should all start Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning runs a well-oiled-machine of an offense, and Montee Ball should be one of the many fantasy beneficiaries of playing with the Hall of Famer. The Bronco’s showed their confidence in Ball by letting Knowshon Moreno walk in free agency, you should too.
CJ Spiller, Bills: Spiller made an appearance earlier in this column as an anecdote of players who underachieved last season. Last season was last season, Spiller has gone from underachiever, to undervalued. With an ADP of 44.8, Spiller should not disappoint his fantasy owners like last season. I would look for Spiller to take advantage of a declining and aging Chicago Bears defense on Sunday.
Pierre Thomas, Saints: Thomas should see an increased workload with the departure of Darren Sproles. Last season, Thomas finished as the 23rd ranked RB in a running back by committee situation. He still has Mark Ingram to compete with for carries, but Thomas’ pass catching skills should allow him to get a few extra touches. Look for the Saints to try and spread out a thin Falcons front seven.
Running Backs to sit:
Toby Gerhart, Jaguars: Gerhart finished the preseason with very disappointing numbers of 16 carries for 51 yards. I believe the Eagles will jump out to an early lead, which will force the Jaguars offense to throw the ball a lot and limit Gerhart’s carries.
Rashad Jennings, Giants: Jennings has emerged as the every down back in the Giants offense, but this Lions front 7 can be dominate. Even though Jennings may have been drafted as a RB2 caliber player, I would look to other options for week 1.
Bishop Sankey, Titans: Everyone has tabbed Sankey as the potential breakout newcomer of this season, and I believe his hype to be premature. Sankey isn’t even the starter in Tennessee, Shonn Greene is. Expect the Titans to ease their rookie RB into action with a little 3rd down work.
Wide Receivers to start:
Victor Cruz, Giants: Victor Cruz is primed for a bounce back year. Since becoming a starter, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in a whopping 43 percent of his games. While the Lions boast a dominate front 7, their secondary can be beat. Look for Cruz to do his patented “salsa dance” in the end zone on Monday night.
TY Hilton, Colts: Hilton has emerged as Andrew Lucks deep threat target over the last 2 seasons. Even though Hilton is considered the #2 WR in Indy, that should benefit him as Reggie Wayne will more than likely draw the attention of Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib. Look for Hilton to use his speed and the versatility of being able to lineup on the outside and in the slot to his advantage against the Broncos Sunday night.
Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers: Because Cam Newton has to throw the football to someone. Also did you see the national championship game last year? Benjamin is not known for being an explosive athlete, but uses his body well in the red zone. Look for him to get a few targets Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Wide Receivers to sit:
Antonio Brown, Steelers: I understand that it would be damn near impossible to bench Antonio Brown week 1 based on where he was drafted, but I can not advise starting any WR that will be shadowed by Joe Haden all game.
Michael Floyd, Cardinals: Floyd is coming off of a breakout season last year where he had over 1,000 yards receiving, more than future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. I expect things to go back to normal this season and for Fitzgerald to emerge again as the #1 target option for Carson Palmer.
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo: Watkins has been banged up with rib injuries all preseason, and this is not a good first NFL game matchup for him on the corners, going against Tim Jennings and Peanut Tillman. Not to mention that neither I, nor apparently the Buffalo Bills, believe in QB EJ Manuel’s ability to lead the team.
Tight Ends to start:
Jason Witten, Cowboys: Witten is the epitome of consistency in the NFL over the last decade, look for him to get off to another steady campaign Sunday against the 49ers. San Fran will be missing a lot of key defenders for Sunday, mainly hawking inside LB Patrick Willis, who usually draws coverage assignments over the middle of their stout defense. Witten is Tony Romo’s safety valve, and should receive a few looks Sunday afternoon.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: Kelce finished the preseason ranked as the #1 TE in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. With Kansas City Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe out for Sunday’s action due to suspension, look for Alex Smith to utilize Kelce over the middle.
Jace Amaro, Jets: Jace Amaro should benefit from a decent game from Geno Smith (as mentioned above.) Amaro has very solid hands, and will not lack in opportunities against the Raiders.
Tight Ends to sit:
Zach Ertz, Eagles: I have to admit that I was never a believer in his talent, even though it appears he has emerged as the starting TE in Philadelphia, I expect Brent Celek to continue to get lots of snaps and targets.
Antonio Gates, Chargers: Ladarius Green is coming for all of Antonio Gates’ snaps.
Charles Clay, Dolphins: In 2 games vs the Patriots last year, Clay had 6 catches for 43 yards. The Patriots are good at stopping opposing TE’s as they only allowed 6 TE TDs last season. Clay should have a good fantasy season, just not this week.
Defense/Special Teams to start:
Jets: Insert Rex Ryan led defense facing rookie QB
Lions: Insert D/ST facing Eli Manning
Steelers: The Steelers defense has a notoriously good history of facing the Cleveland Browns. Expect Brian Hoyer’s current tenure to get off to a slow start, and having explosive WR Antonio Brown as your primary Kick Returner doesn’t hurt either.
Defense/Special Teams to sit:
49ers: The 49ers defense is reeling with injuries and suspensions, and Tony Romo has their number. Expect a shootout in Dallas.
Panthers: The Panthers finished last season as the #3 ranked fantasy defense, and are a prime candidate for a regression. I expect Doug Martin to have a decent day on the ground, and the risk-averse Josh McCown to limit his turnovers
Kickers to start:
Dan Bailey, Cowboys
Nick Novak, San Diego
Blair Walsh, Minnesota
Kickers to sit:
Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
Kai Forbath, Redskins