There are only 2 teams on bye (Miami and Oakland) and there aren’t a lot of fantasy options from either team that will be missed, leaving most fantasy owners with the full complement of available players to choose from. A quarter through the NFL season and fantasy owners should feel a lot more comfortable with knowing what to expect from certain players. There are a few things that I have taken away from the beginning of the fantasy season.
1. Wide Receivers are starting to become more reliable and valuable than Running Backs for fantasy purposes. There are countless highly drafted RB’s who have completely disappointed their fantasy owners (Peterson, McCoy, Lacy, Ball); while the majority of the wide receiver that you could have gotten in the 2nd and 3rd rounds have been largely productive (Dez, Jordy, Cobb, Anotnio Brown.)
2. Fantasy owners have to stop relying on name recognition as a basis for fantasy production (I play in a league where Jammal Charles was traded for Tom Brady this week, and I found it to be the most egregious thing ever since there are about 20 QBs that I would rather have than Tom Brady.) Don’t be afraid to go out on the limb and pick up and start no-name players like Larry Donnell.
3. Andrew Luck is the truth and maybe matchup proof. (Seriously, what can’t this guy do?)
Quarterbacks to Start
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Coming off of his best game of the season with 314 yards passing and 3 TD’s. Roethlisberger gets a dream matchup for week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags have allowed multiple passing TD’s to every QB they have faced this year, and are a complete train wreck overall as a team. Big Ben and the Steelers should bounce back with a much needed win after blowing last week’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you own Ben you should start him this week and reap the rewards.
Tony Romo, Cowboys: All of the early season talk about Romo and his back issues seem to have disappeared over the last 2 weeks. Romo has looked like the QB who threw for 31 TD’s and 10 interceptions last year in the big Sunday night victory over the New Orleans Saints. Romo gets the Houston Texans defense led by JJ Watt, it should be a tough test for the Cowboys o-line, but nothing that pro bowler Tyron Smith can’t handle. Romo’s floor production is high because he’s working on a 29 consecutive games TD pass streak, I’d feel comfortable penciling him in for at least 2 this Sunday,
Cam Newton, Panthers: Newton has struggled this season and the main reason for that has been his lack of rushing. In Newton’s first 3 seasons he has averaged 42.3 rushing (yards per game), this season that number has dropped significantly to 11 ypg. Luckily for Newton he gets to play at home against the Chicago Bears defense who has given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Andy Dalton, Bengals: Dalton is a different QB on the road than he is at home, in his last 5 games outside of Cincy he as 6 TD’s and 7 INT’s. The Patriots are famous for their bounce back victories, and are in desperate need of one after being embarrassed by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. Dalton has not been forced to throw the ball nearly as much now that Hue Jackson is the offensive coordinator. Look for the Bengals to lean on Gio Bernard and Jeremey Hill in this game, and Dalton to be in full game-manager mode.
Alex Smith, Chiefs: Alex Smith has been emerging as a sneaky play for fantasy football owners in need of QB help, but this week would be a good one to shelf Smith. It seems as if the Alex Smith revenge factor would contribute to a good performance against the San Francisco 49ers, but the 49ers boast the #2 ranked defense in the NFL. Smith’s lack of explosive weapons may ultimately prove too much to overcome for his revenge game.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins: Cousins is coming off of his worst performance as a professional with 4 INT’s last Thursday night against the NY Giants. The bad news for him is that his matchup against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks does not bode well for quality fantasy production.
Running Backs to Start
LeSean McCoy, Eagles: McCoy has been very disappointing to this fantasy owners who spent a top 3 pick on him, but he can very easily get back on track Sunday with a nice matchup against the St. Louis Rams. The Eagles offensive line is in shambles right now so I would expect for Chip Kelley to try to get the ball to McCoy in space by utilizing the screen game. The Darren Sproles factor has not contributed as mightily to Shady’s decline, as Sproles only touched the ball 8 times per game the last 2 weeks. McCoy should get plenty of opportunities to get going on Sunday and should be started in all leagues with confidence.
Doug Martin, Bucs: Doug Martin came back from injury last week to regain the starting RB position in the Bucs offense out-touching Bobby Rainey 15-6. This week’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints could be a potential fantasy boom for Martin. The Saints have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RB’s this year, and that should not let up anytime soon.
Bishop Sankey, Titans: Sankey has received more and more snaps as the weeks go along, and he is just gaining the trust of coach Whisenhunt and the staff. Sankey should be able to take advantage of a decent matchup against the Cleveland Browns who give up an average of 153 rushing yards per game.
Running Backs to Sit
Matt Forte, Bears: Forte had his first 100 yard rushing game last week against the Green Bay Packers but I do not expect that type of production to continue against the front seven of the Carolina Panthers. The strength of the Bears is the passing attack with Jay Cutler and the way to exploit the Panthers defense is through the air. Forte may be involved somewhat in the passing game, but may not receive the workload in carries to make him a successful fantasy play. It would be extremely difficult for fantasy owners to sit Forte, just temper your expectations on his production.
Alfred Morris, Redskins: This is purely matchup based, as the Seahawks have only allowed one rushing TD all season and that was to FB John Kuhn. I expect the Redskins to be down early in this game and that will force Washington to lean heavily on the passing game. Morris is almost nonexistent in the passing game and concedes all of those snaps to backup RB Roy Helu. If you have a decent WR option I would consider playing that over Morris in your flex position this week.
Chris Johnson, Jets: Johnson has lost his starting job to Chris Ivory and it does not look like he’s getting it back anytime soon. Ivory has more rushing yards, and surprisingly just 1 less catch than Johnson through the first quarter of the season. Johnson is a pure desperation play at this point as his workload does not currently warrant fantasy starting consideration.
Wide Receivers to Start
Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Bryant has scored in 3 straight games, and is a favorite target of QB Tony Romo. The Texans rank in the dead middle of giving up fantasy points to opposing WR’s at 16. Bryant is an elite fantasy option who is proving to be almost matchup proof. No WR in the NFL has had more TD’s since the beginning of the 2013 season than Dez Bryant’s 16.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: Hopkins has emerged as a top WR threat in the NFL, and could be on pace for a breakout sophomore season similar to what we saw from 2013 Alshon Jeffrey. Hopkins will get a Cowboys defense that is ranked 26th against the past and will be down one of their top CB’s Mo Claiborne who is lost for the season with a torn PCL. Hopkins has the deep threat speed, and the large catch radius that will give Dallas’ smaller CB’s problems on Sunday.
Percy Harvin, Seahawks: Harvin started out the season very strong against the Green Bay Packers, but his production has tailed off the last few weeks. Hopefully the Seahawks bye week came at a perfect time for Harvin to build up more chemistry with QB Russell Wilson, and the porous Washington Redskins defense is the perfect matchup to bounce back. The Redskins rank as the 7th worst fantasy defense against opposing WR’s and with starting CB Deangelo Hall lost for the season, Harvin should have a field day against the Redskins.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Pierre Garcon, Redskins: Insert WR facing Richard Sherman
Michael Floyd, Cardinals: Floyd is in the middle of his breakout season, but with reports that Carson Palmer is likely out another week, it’s hard to trust Drew Stanton to continue leading the Cardinals passing attack to success. The matchup with Denver is also a factor; the Broncos allow the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Bowe just doesn’t seem to have any of the explosiveness that allowed him to be a fantasy stud from 08-11. He only has 11 catches for the entire season and is steadily losing targets to TE Travis Kelce. Bowe should be on the bench in your fantasy team for the foreseeable future, but do not drop him just yet as KC has a few nice matchups to finish the season.
Tight Ends to Start
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: If there is one bright spot to the Kansas City passing game, Kelce is it. The second year TE out of Cincinnati is beginning to make a name for himself as a dominant pass catching TE. The thing that stands out the most to me about Kelce is his ability to run after the catch for a guy of his size. Kelce leads all TE’s in yards after catch with 9.3 per reception. Kelce will continue to see a lot of targets from “check-down king” Alex Smith.
Heath Miller, Steelers: Miller is coming off of his best game in nearly 2 years with a 10 catch 85 yards and 1 TD performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Look for this production to continue with an even better matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Garrett Graham, Texans: The Cowboys have allowed an opposing TE to score in every game this season. Graham may not be the most athletic TE in the world, but he is worth a desperation flyer if you are searching for TE production for week 5
Tight Ends to Sit
Antonio Gates, Chargers: Gates may have fooled everyone into thinking he was back with his 3 TD performance earlier this season. The reality is that Gates is almost splitting time with backup Ladarius Green, and is becoming very TD dependent as a fantasy option. Gates very well could find his way into the end zone, but if he doesn’t he provides almost no fantasy value.
Dwayne Allen, Colts: Allen also finds himself in a TE time-share with Coby Fleener, and he has a terrible matchup against the Baltimore Ravens who are the #1 ranked defense against opposing TE’s allowing only 2.3 points per game. Allen should not be started in any leagues for Sunday.
Defenses and Special Teams to Start
Broncos: Denver should be able to force some turnovers on Drew Stanton/Carson Palmer
Browns: The Browns defense has played surprisingly efficient this season, and Joe Haden shuts down every WR not named Antonio Brown
Lions: Kyle Orton is not the answer to Buffalo’s problems, The Lions front 7 will be sure to let that be known.