With only 2 teams on Bye for week 7 (Eagles and Bucs), fantasy owners have most of their full compliment of players available. If you are still reading fantasy advice columns by this point, your team must be in the hunt and your interest is still peaked for the fantasy season. These next few weeks will be very important in determining if your team will be dancing in the postseason so it is very critical that you pay close attention to detail.
1.Make adjustments to your roster to account for bye week and injured players.
2. Cut all of the dead weight from your roster and start to invest in speculative prospects with high upside for later in the season.
3. Start to browse other teams in your league for glaring needs and see if you can trade with them to upgrade a position. My favorite type of trade is the “poo-poo” platter where you take 2 dimes and a nickel and trade it for a Quarter.
4. Stop paying attention to projected point values on your fantasy site, it is hardly a barometer of expected output.
If you follow along on these tips, it will increase your chances of success. So browse through my recommended start and sit advice for the week, and hopefully once the dust settles on Monday night your team will still be intact and victorious.
Quarterbacks to Start
Matt Ryan, Falcons: Matt Ryan is a long ways away from his 30 point performance to open the 2014 season against the New Orleans Saints. Ryan has struggled to perform at the elite fantasy level that his owner have become accustom to. 4 of his 6 starts have been below 20 points, and Ryan struggles on the road with only 5 TDs and 6 INTs. Luckily his ineffectiveness as an NFL QB has no bearing on his output as a fantasy QB this week. Ryan is a good start based on sheer volume, as the Falcons have the 2nd most pass attempts in the NFL and a variety of dynamic pass catchers. With the Falcons at a critical point in their 2-4 season, expect “Matty Ice” to bring his best performance for his Falcons, and for your fantasy team
Carson Palmer, Cardinals: Palmer played for the first time since week 1 and it made a world of a difference with the Cardinals offense. Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are definitely happy that Palmer is finally back and makes the Cardinals offense competent. Palmer gets a pretty good matchup of facing the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, who give up an average of 16 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. With Palmer only being owned in 7% of ESPN leagues he is widely available and can be added and started for all teams in need of jolt at the QB position.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins: This could literally be Cousin’s last week to showcase his skills with RG3’s return from an ankle injury looming around the corner. Cousins has been very underwhelming as the starter in Washington, but has somehow still produced as a fantasy starter. Take out the Thursday night debacle against the NY Giants, and Cousins has gone for at least 16 fantasy points in every other game he’s played this year. The Titans give up an average of 17 fantasy points to opposing QBs on the road and Cousins should fall somewhere around that range.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Andy Dalton, Bengals: Dalton is coming off of a decent game against the Carolina Panthers last Sunday in which he threw for 322 yards and 3 TDs. This week Dalton will face the Indianapolis Colts defense who has only given up one 20 point performance to an opposing QB, and that was Peyton Manning. With AJ Green expected to miss another week, look for the Colts to key in on Mohamed Sanu with Vontae Davis, and Dalton will struggle to get the ball to the rest of his receiving corps.
Matt Stafford, Lions: Last week I wrote about how Stafford struggles without Calvin Johnson in the lineup in this space, and Stafford responded with an 11 point performance. As long as Megatron is out of the Lions lineup, Stafford should be out of yours.
Austin Davis, Rams: Davis came on to the fantasy scene the last month with a couple of 20 point performances and a lot of fantasy analysts were confident in his future prospectus for the season. I remain skeptical of Davis’ talent, especially with his impending matchup with the Seattle Seahawks defense Sunday. If you were trying to outsmart your opponent this week by inserting Davis into your lineup this week, don’t, you’ll end up just outsmarting yourself.
Running Backs to Start
Lamar Miller, Dolphins: Lamar Miller will get a chance to carry the workload for the Dolphins backfield going forward after Knowshon Moreno was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Miller has established a level of consistency that fantasy owners love to see, going for double digit performances in 4/5 games this season. The Dolphins are committed to having a balanced attack and Miller is also involved in the passing game, averaging 3.5 catches a game. This week’s matchup should provide for a good fantasy day since the Bears give up 4.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Start Lamar Miller in all formats.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts: Bradshaw is a top 10 fantasy RB for the year, and isn’t even the starter on his own team. As long as Bradshaw is healthy, and the Colts continue to use him in their passing game, then these are the results that we will get. Bradshaw has had at least 80 yards from scrimmage in every game this season and already has 5 receiving TDs. This week’s matchup against the Bengals is not conducive for a lot of rushing yards, but Bradshaw should be able to produce in the passing game. Bradshaw is a must start in ppr formats and a decent RB2 option in standard leagues.
Shane Vereen, Patriots: Vereen is the beneficiary of a season ending injury to his backfield mate Stevan Ridley. Vereen will most likely see an uptick in touches with Ridley now out of the picture. The matchup against the Jets is not ideal, but Vereen will be involved in the passing game and should be a very good flex play on Thursday Night Football.
Running Backs to Sit
Eddie Lacy, Packers: 2 weeks ago Lacy produced his 1 and only 100 yard rushing game of the season, and everyone thought it was a sign of him getting on track. Last week, Lacy kind of reverted back to the plotting style that we have grown accustom to seeing from him this season. Lacy had 14 carries for 40 yards, and even worse than that was him losing about 40% of the snaps to backup James Starks who was on the field during the Packers comeback win against the Dolphins. I would recommend sitting Lacy until he is able to establish a level of consistency that makes him trustworthy.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos: Hillman emerged last week as the #1 back in the Broncos offense, and may even be their starter going forward since Montee Ball hasn’t distinguished himself at all. The problem with Hillman this week is the matchup against the 49ers. The 49ers are the 5th ranked rushing defense in the NFL and only give up 78 rushing yards per game. The way to attack Denver is through the air and at that secondary. With Peyton Manning needing only 3 TDs to tie Brett Favre’s record, I would expect the Broncos offense to be very successful passing the ball on Sunday Night Football.
Steven Jackson, Falcons: Steven Jackson should not be anywhere near your fantasy lineup unless you are in a desperate situation. Jackson is the lead back in a 4 headed committee and has scored only 2 rushing TDs all season. In those games that Jackson scored a TD his fantasy ceiling has been 11 points, that’s a low ceiling for a TD dependent player. Jackson is a viable drop candidate going forward if you are in need of roster space. You would be better off adding a RB handcuff like Jeremy Hill or Joseph Randle and speculating on their future fantasy potential than rostering Jackson.
Wide Receivers to Start
Percy Harvin, Seahawks: Percy Harvin has struggled every game this season besides the season opener against the Green Bay Packers. Harvin has yet to eclipse 60 yard receiving in any game this year, but is overdue for a breakout. If you recall the 3 TDs that Harvin had called back on that Monday Night game against the Redskins, you would realize that the Seahawks are making an effort to get him involved in sooner or later he is going to break through. This week against the St. Louis Rams would be a perfect opportunity, as the Rams have given up 8TDs to opposing WRs in 5 games including 3 last week to the 49ers.
Roddy White, Falcons: The Baltimore Ravens allow the 6th most fantasy points to opposing WRs in the NFL, and the Falcons are second in the NFL in pass attempts. With the season on the line, I expect Matt Ryan to rely on his most trusted, veteran receiver to make plays and keep the Falcons in this game. Start White with confidence this week.
Rueben Randle, Giants: Reuben Randle is the new #1 WR in the Giants offense and he should see his already large target shares going up. Randle is 5th in the NFL in targets since week 3, averaging 9.5 per. Eli Manning will rely on the 3 year veteran more than the rookie Odell Beckham who has only played in 2 NFL games
Wide Receivers to Sit
Mike Wallace, Dolphins: Wallace is receiving a career high 8.4 targets per contest, but this has turned Wallace into a possession type of receiver when he really excels as a stretch the field type option. The Chicago Bears defense has been playing a lot better in past weeks, and with the rookie Kyle Fuller evolving into a viable shutdown corner, I think Wallace might struggle a bit in getting free off the line of scrimmage. Wallace would be a good flex play this week, just not in his usual WR1 slot.
Brian Quick, Rams: As “Quick” as he came on to the fantasy scene he might already be losing a little bit of his luster. The Rams are back to their old ways of spreading the ball around to a bunch of mediocre receivers instead of trying to feature their one above-average talent. Quick is sharing targets with TE Jared Cook, WRs Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, and Austin Pettis. Not to mention that Quick will get Richard Sherman in a tough matchup. If you own Quick, I would try to sell as high as possible and trade him away to a team with WR needs.
Pierre Garcon, Redskins: Pierre Garcon is on pace for 800 yards and 5 TDs, which is well below the expected value that fantasy owners expected to receive when they spent a mid-round pick on Garcon. Desean Jackson is clearly that man in Washington, and Jordan Reed’s return has eaten in to Garcon’s intermediate route target. Garcon is unfortunately the odd man out, and should be benched until RG3 returns.
Tight Ends to Start
Jordan Reed, Redskins: Reed finally returned from lingering hamstring problems and picked up right where he left off with 8 catches for 92 yards. As long as Reed is healthy he will be a great option for TE in your fantasy lineup. If he was dropped in your league, pick him up and start him with confidence.
Delanie Walker, Titans: Washington’s defense is horrible and images of Larry Donnell scoring 3 TDs against them should be ingrained in the Titans heads. It doesn’t matter if it’s Locker or Whitehurst at QB, Walker will have a decent output Sunday.
Clay Harbor, Jaguars: In the 3 games that Harbor has started at TE since Marcedes Lewis has been out he has averaged almost 5 catches and 60 yards per game. Harbor is the perfect fill in for Jimmy Graham owners who are affected by his injury.
Tight Ends to Sit
Greg Olsen, Panthers: This is a bold call since Olsen is the #2 ranked fantasy TE through 6 games this season, but the Packers only give up 4.8 fantasy ppg to opposing TEs. The strength of the Packers defense is their coverage down the middle of the field from their LBs and safety’s. Olsen has been solid all season, and I understand if you find it difficult to sit him, just temper your expectations for your TE production for week 7.
Tim Wright, Patriots: Wright has scored TDs in 2 consecutive weeks, but it’s hard to trust a TE who is only playing 16 snaps per game. I would not bank on his TD streak continuing.
Defenses to Start
New England Patriots: Insert D/ST facing Geno Smith, this plan seems to be working so why not keep going back to the running well.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills have been a very stout group this season, and it does not hurt to face a rookie QB, Teddy Bridgewater.