Week 9 presents a very difficult challenge for fantasy owners who have to deal with 6 teams that are on bye (Packer, Bears, Lions, Falcons, Titans, and Bills.) Each one of these teams has a plethora of fantasy options that will leave holes in your team, that’s why it is very important to make the correct decisions on who to actually insert in your lineup. While the NFL season is just halfway over, we are coming down to the homestretch for the fantasy football season, as most leagues will began the fantasy playoffs in the next month. It is very critical for fantasy owners to stay in playoff contention with a big victory this week. This column will help you cipher through the difficult decisions, and make sure that you are putting out the most optimal lineup for success.
Quarterbacks to Start
Cam Newton, Panthers: Cam Newton gets a New Orleans Saints defense giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs on a short week, and should be able to take advantage of this matchup. The short weeks should bode well for Cam’s running ability against a soft Saints front seven. Expect Cam to use his legs to not only gain yardage, but also to extend plays in the pocket and to get the ball to his weapons downfield.
Eli Manning, Giants: Eli Manning is coming off of his bye week to face a Colts team that is reeling after Ben Roethlisberger torched them last Sunday for over 500 yards and 6 TDs. The Giants have had a little more practice time to strategize their plan going forward without WR Victor Cruz. Manning will continue to get the ball out quick in the Giants new offensive system, and WR Odell Beckham is the perfect pass catcher for this team’s current situation. Manning is still only owned in 59% of ESPN leagues, so with 6 teams on bye, go out and pick up Manning if you need solid QB production.
Robert Griffin III, Redskins: RG3 is making his triumphant return to the Redskins lineup after missing the last 6 games with a dislocated ankle. The Redskins have a plethora of weapons for Griffin to utilize in the passing game, and I expect Jay Gruden to put together a nice game plan of short to intermediate throws and screen passes to get RG3 feeling comfortable.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Phillip Rivers, Chargers: The Miami Dolphins boast the #3 ranked pass defense in the NFL, and this will be a very tough matchup for Rivers. The Chargers are already at a disadvantage by having to fly across the country and face the Dolphins for a 1:00pm kickoff. I do understand that it will be virtually impossible for fantasy owners to sit Rivers on a week where there are 6 teams on bye, but if you have Rivers and another QB1 on your roster, it might be a good week to give your other option a look.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals: The Cowboys have allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season, and Palmer has been incredibly lucky with his TD to INT ratio for the season. Palmer has a ratio of 8:1 TD:INT for the 2014 season but over the last 4 seasons has been 85:72. I’m just waiting for the other shoe to drop on this statistical aberration, and this week is the perfect opportunity for that to happen.
Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings: The way that the Redskins blitzed The Dallas Cowboys and their NFL’s best offensive line on Monday night football does not bode well for young Teddy Bridgewater, who has already shown a high propensity for turning the ball over. Bridgewater might be the long term answer in Minnesota at QB but is nowhere near being the short term answer for anyone’s fantasy team. Avoid at all costs.
Running Backs to Start
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos: In Hillman’s last 3 starts he has reached double digit fantasy points in each matchup. It appears as if Hillman has taken a strangle hold on the Broncos RB job, and will continue to be the starter even when Montee Ball returns from injury. Hillman gets a nice matchup on Sunday facing the New England Patriots team who ranks 25th against the run. Hillman is taking advantage of his opportunities, plug him into your lineup and reap the rewards.
Jerrick McKinnon, Vikings: McKinnon has gone for at least 80 total scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games. This could finally be the week that McKinnon scores his first NFL TD, as the Redskins allow 4.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: Bradshaw has scored a TD in 6 of 8 games this season, and gets an opportunity to face his former team the NY Giants on Monday Night Football. Bradshaw has been performing at such a high level this year that he would not even need the revenge factor to be a solid start, but with his emotions riding high, there is no way that the Giants keep him out of the end zone.
Running Backs to Sit
Mark Ingram, Saints: Ingram is coming off of arguably his best game of his career Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers. Ingram ran for 172 yards and a TD in helping the Saint save their season. Coming off of a short week, it will be hard for a physical runner such as Ingram to maintain his intensity against a Panthers defense who finds themselves fighting for their own seasons lives. The Saints remain a passing team, and while Ingram has gotten a lot better at catching the ball out of the backfield, he will still lose enough touches to Travaris Cadet that will make him a questionable fantasy start.
Alfred Morris, Redskins: Morris finally found the endzone for the first time in 4 weeks against the Cowboys. Morris has turned into a TD dependent fantasy option, who has zero impact in the passing game. If he does not score a TD (Which he has only done in 3 of 8 games this season) he has almost no value.
Denard Robinson, Jaguars: Robinson has taken the fantasy world by storm with his last 2 weeks of 100 yard performances. This week Robinson gets the stalwart Cincinnati Bengals defense. The game flow will likely dictate that the Jaguars will spend a lot of the game passing to play catch up and this will limit Robinson’s touches.
Wide Receivers to Start
Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers: Kelvin Benjamin is a TD machine when he actually hauls in his red zone targets. The Saints give up the 3rd most fantasy point to opposing WR’s and Benjamin only has 2 games with less than 9 fantasy points all season. Start Benjamin with confidence for week 9.
Mohamed Sanu, Bengals: Sanu just keeps bucking the unfavorable analysis from fantasy writers who suggest that he is outperforming his talent level. I strongly disagree with those sentiments because Sanu has proven time and time again that he has a knack for coming down with contested balls thrown his way. With the reports out of Cincy that AJ Green will return to action this week, I think this actually helps Sanu’s value going forward. Andy Dalton has developed enough trust in Sanu that he should be able to take advantage of Sanu’s matchups against #2 corners rather than #1s.
Cordarelle Patterson, Vikings: Patterson is staying involved in the Minnesota offense, as OC Norv Turner continues to find creative ways to get Patterson the ball in space. Last week Patterson had 10 targets and converted 6 of those targets into 86 yards. The Vikings also continue to use Patterson in the run game on the jet sweep options. Patterson’s talent level will allow for him to have a breakout game soon enough, and why not make it this week versus a week Redskins secondary.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Reuben Randle, Giants: Randle continues to receive a good number of targets from Eli Manning, but has failed to convert on the majority of them. Randle may have been surpassed in importance in the Giants offense by rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. Randle has yet to exceed 10 fantasy points in any game this season, and he remains an inconsistent WR 3 option. Only play him if you are extremely desperate or deprived of WRs due to the sic teams on bye.
Vincent Jackson, Bucs: Vincent Jackson only converts on 41% of the targets that come his way, and he is also battling wrist and rib injuries. Mike Glennon continues to look at rookie Mike Evans and sooner or later the Bucs are going to start emphasizing getting there younger players more involved in the offense and building toward the future. Sit Jackson until further notice.
Michael Floyd, Cardinals: Floyd was suppose to be one of the breakout candidates for fantasy stardom for the 2014 season but has disappointed a lot of his owners with 1/0 fantasy points scored in 3 of his 7 games this season, making him the quintessential boom or bust fantasy prospect. This week should be a bust for Floyd with a surprisingly tough matchup with Dallas’ corners.
Tight Ends to Start
Jimmy Graham, Saints: Normally Jimmy Graham would be too much of a high profile player to appear in this column, but since he is coming off of a shoulder injury, many fantasy owners are skeptical as to whether they should start him or not. Last week Graham got more active in the Saints passing game and caught 5 passes for 59 yards and a TD. Graham might not be back to 100%, but a semi healthy Jimmy Graham needs to be in your lineup every time.
Jordan Reed, Redskins: Reed is averaging 7 catches per game since his return from an early season hamstring injury, and is going to find the end zone sooner or later. Last year Reed came on to the scene as one of RG3’s favorite targets, and with the return of Griffin this Sunday, Reeds fantasy stock gets a boost.
Tight Ends to Sit
Heath Miller, Steelers: Miller has been really bad this year besides last week’s fantasy bonanza of a game where Big Ben threw 6 TDs. Miller struggled in his week 2 matchup against the Ravens, and with the hawking Ravens secondary keying in on him, should struggle again Sunday.
Tim Wright, Patriots: Wright remains too inconsistent to be a relevant fantasy option, he might get you a goal line TD, but you can’t afford the 0 if he doesn’t score. Look to better volume plays for week 9.