The playoff committee sent the nation into a frenzy this evening with their selections for the top 4 this week. If you have been following previous posts about my Final Four predictions the news wasn’t very new at all, but lets touch on the committee’s top 4 and who on the outside looking in.
Top 4
#1. Mississippi State
#2. Oregon
#3. Florida State
#4. TCU
Who Missed The Cut?
#5. Alabama
#6. Arizona State
#7. Baylor
#8. Ohio State
Recap
Me and the committee saw eye to eye on our final four rankings this week. I said last week that TCU should be ranked ahead of Alabama and that didn’t change for me after a dismantling of a top 10 ranked Kansas State team. If you look at the resumes to date between Alabama and TCU, they aren’t really close. Yes, Alabama gets credit for a tough road win against LSU, but so does TCU for a blow out of a top 10 team. Outside of the LSU win who is Alabama’s best win? Florida? Tennessee? Texas A&M? West Virginia? Not as impressive as most want to believe. Alabama has a chance to get right back in with a win over Mississippi State this weekend and I expect the loser to need a lot of help to get back in the playoff picture due to the timing of the loss and other 1 loss teams playing well.
The one thing that surprised me was the committee moving Oregon ahead of an unbeaten Florida State. While Oregon has been impressive since rebounding from a home loss to Arizona, I can’t put them over an unbeaten Florida State. While them flip flopping doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, I’m just surprised the committee actually went in that direction.
Baylor being ranked at #7 will also be something that gets fans up in arms. Baylor and TCU share the same record currently and Baylor owns the head to head victory between the two so things will be interesting if both teams win out as they are expected to. For me, looking at both teams as they stand today, I see TCU as being the more impressive team. Before this past weekend this conversation didn’t have a ton of buzz and after a blowout victory in Norman everyone wants to know why TCU is ahead of Baylor. I’ve had a chance to watch both teams multiple times this year and despite the 3 point loss in Waco I think the teams are ranked appropriately given who and when their losses occurred. I still think there is a chance both could sneak in, but we will discuss all of that another day.