Conor McGregor tries to make UFC history when he steps in the octagon against Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 197. If victorious, Conor will become the first UFC fighter to hold titles in two divisions simultaneously.
McGregor is supremely confident in his ability to leave UFC 197 as lightweight champion, we’d expect nothing less, but UFC president Dana White doesn’t have as much faith in Conor.
.@ufc President @danawhite tells @anezbitt he doesn’t see how @TheNotoriousMMA could win his next fight.https://t.co/C6hU5npDbK
— AtTheBuzzer (@TheBuzzerOnFOX) February 4, 2016
Dana, and most UFC fans, have the right to be pessimistic but I’m here to explain why Conor has all the tools needed to defeat RDA.
Many assume that RDA will walk down Conor McGregor and take him down at will; that couldn’t be further from the truth. McGregor’s added weight has bulked up his thighs substantially which should help him with his sprawls. He’s always had the flexibility needed to defend takedowns but now he’ll have the strength to hold a wide base.
Offensively, Conor will have to show the ability to eat a few RDA punches to establish ring control. Khabib was able to do that which is why he was successful against Dos Anjos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgSyPXd4UM
People will focus on the takedowns landed by Khabib, which Conor won’t attempt, but before those takedowns Khabib exposed RDA.
When RDA is pressured his natural instinct is to retreat with his left arm lowered. This allows fighters to cut off the octagon and pin him against the cage. This is a position Conor loves and he’s finished Siver, Mendes and others by having them in a defensive position with their back on the cage.
In RDA’s dominant win against Anthony Pettis you can see that he retreats when encroached upon (watch Pettis’ first knee strike). Pettis’ problem was that he allowed the leg kicks to stop him from circling the octagon. RDA was able to keep him directly in front of him by kicking his legs when he roamed to far.
Conor’s awkward stance makes it difficult for fighters to kick both legs. RDA will probably attack his lead leg, but even then, Conor will circle to his left to avoid the powerful kicks. Conor will have to showcase superb footwork to avoid getting pinned against the cage and pummelled by RDA’s strength.
The Benson Henderson fight is the perfect example of RDA executing his game plan. He kept Henderson against the cage and dominated him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2nOJ7r4gIQ
When McGregor fought Chad Mendes, who is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC, he was able to keep the fight in the center of the octagon. Mendes used his top-notch wrestling to land double leg takedowns in space, while RDA lands almost all of his takedowns by pinning fighters against the cage. If/when RDA does take down McGregor, he’s shown the ability to recapture octagon control after returning to his feet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOtyDp9vcMs
The ultimate key to victory for McGregor is keeping that octagon control.
If he can force RDA to fight in space, and not in a phone booth, he can pick apart his striking. The long looping power blows are great for RDA when they land accurately in close quarters but McGregor has the ability to turn KO blows into glancing punches.
There’s no better example of Conor’s elusiveness than when he fought the usually aggressive Max Holloway. He took Holloway out of his aggressive game plan and made him a defensive fighter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTNssJl6pm4
Holloway hasn’t lost since and currently stands as the 4th ranked fighter in the UFC’s featherweight division. I say that to say this, McGregor does things to fighters that no one else can. He mentally and physically takes them out of their game plan and makes them fight his fight.
The opening 10-seconds of UFC 197 will tell you all you need to know about the fight. Whichever fighter gets to the center of the octagon first will impose his will on the fight and gain a huge advantage, ultimately leading to victory.
RDA beat Cerrone to the center which allowed him to land a body kick/right hook combo that ended the fight quickly (note that he went for the kill after Cerrone’s back was against the cage).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1NemPp30LE
In Conor’s fight with Jose Aldo he sprinted to the center of the octagon to establish control.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxFyXWEKbDc
That’ll be the deciding factor in the UFC 197 main event. I’d give Conor the nod on a footrace to the center of the octagon but as we know in MMA anything can happen.