The New York Knicks don’t rebuild they reload, and that is exactly what they did this off-season. As it stands now in the early days of free agency, the Knicks roster has former MVP Derrick Rose, perennial All-Star Carmelo Anthony, budding star Kristaps Porzingis, and bruising center Joakim Noah. By name only that is one heck of a roster, and if it was 2010 they would be NBA Finals favorites. But it’s not 2010, it’s 2016, and Rose, Noah, and Melo are headed out of their prime years. Injuries have dealt a heavy hand to all three of the older members of this new Big 4, and this is the main concern among Knicks fans excited about their new acquisitions.
So how far can the Knicks go with this new infusion of talent? Exactly what is their ceiling after suffering through a 32 win season?
To get a sense of what they could be next season let’s go back to last year’s win projections. Before last season, both ESPN and Five-Thirty-Eight projected 27 wins for the Knicks, and they surpassed that projection by five games with the 2015-2016 roster. This actually bodes well for next year, since they will be getting a big upgrade at point guard and a reported healthy version of Joakim Noah. Rose’s 16.4 ppg avg is 53% higher than Calderon’s 7.7 ppg last season, and Porzingis is likely to improve on the 14 ppg he produced last year. If Melo produces at the same 21.1 ppg rate as last season, the Knicks should be able to increase their win total from last season by at least 8-9 games, which would put them in the playoff picture.
Of course this only works if Rose, Noah, and Melo can stay healthy. Jeff Hornacek and his staff will have to create a solid plan to limit Rose’s minutes as well as other veterans. Hornacek’s uptempo style will require extra bodies that can spell Rose and Noah, given their injury history. The Warriors devised a system for Curry that pretty much saved his career, the Knicks will need to do the same. This is the big risk with New York’s plan. As exciting as these moves are, it has the potential to turn tragic with one innocent ankle turn, or groin tweak.
However, if Rose and Noah can remain healthy, I see playoffs in their future and perhaps a series victory. It’s pretty clear that the Knicks won’t get Durant, so that CAP space could be used on Free Agents like Eric Gordon or Dwyane Wade, which would further legitimize their risky moves.
Two years after Phil Jackson joined the Knicks, he is swinging hard for the fences. Now he must hope that his two new sluggers still have some bat speed.