Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. Predicton: Size Matters Within Reason in #Boxing

The outcome of Saturday Night’s mega-Mexican showdown between Canelo Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. should have been a relatively easy finale to predict but instead turned into fair sized shift of favor for the underdog after Friday’s weigh-in.

With the world watching Chavez Jr. cleared the final hurdle to fight night by successfully weighing in under the contracted weight limit of 164.5-pounds. Tipping the scale at 164-pounds even, Chavez skillfully sidesteps a contracted $1M-per-pound over the limit penalty and silences naysayers who believed he would be giving up 7 figures in the fight’s aftermath.

After years of being plagued by discussions of his commitment, Friday’s successful weigh-in reignited musings of what he could have been. With the big fight hours away, will past flashes of greatness by way of one-punch power and a degree of confidence after Friday’s success be enough to keep Chavez Jr. engaged?

Once Canelo removed his robe for his turn at the scale, his overall appearance suggested a controlled, focused camp with little to no concern about weight. Fighting a full 10-pounds heavier than his last bout against Liam Smith, Alvarez weighed in with an air of invincibility and confidence despite a 3-inch height and reach deficit.

The Road To Victory:

Appearing sunken and gaunt at the scale, Chavez Jr. runs the risk of becoming slower than usual Saturday night should he regain more than 10-pounds overnight. To have any hope of success, Chavez will need to take advantage of his reach early and pump the jab to keep Canelo away from his body.

Canelo enters as the stronger, more athletic and favorite to win. With better technical skills than Chavez Jr., any number of punches stands to end the fight early. With his opponent dropping to his lightest weight in recent years, Canelo’s best course of action is a sustained boy attack against Chavez Jr.


Chavez Jr. is definitely the bigger man. Friday’s weigh-in displayed an almost skeletal form that has been working at capacity during camp to remain on weight. The overnight rehydration will bring him back double digits heavier and sluggish.

Canelo, 7th round TKO