AFC South Preview

2) Dwight Freeney returns from a Lisfranc injury that prematurely ended his season and likely was a main reason why the Colts got bounced from the playoffs by the Chargers. Reports from off-season camp seem to indicate that he will be ok for 2008. But merely being ok isn't good enough for a player the caliber of Freeney, whose pre-injury presence was enough to draw double teams. He was limited to 3.5 sacks before the injury and there's no guarantee he will be the force that he once was. As an undersized defensive end, speed is Freeney's calling card and without it, he's Simeon Rice.

3) The architect of the Tampa-2 defense and the classiest man in the NFL, Tony Dungy strongly considered retirement after the Colts playoff loss. Owner Jim Irsay did everything but shine Dungy shoes in an effort to convince him to come back for at least one more season. For Dungy, he really had no reason to come back other than to see the opening of the Colts new Lucas Oil Stadium. He finally won a Super Bowl (should have been two) and he has won enough games to garner serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. He turned a team known as the "Indianapolis Dolts" and "Playoffs! Playoffs?!" and turned them into a champion. A man of God who experienced the pain of his son's suicide, Dungy has exhibited an inner strength that is almost too good to be wasted in the NFL. If this is indeed his final year in the league (having already secured Jim Caldwell as his replacement), then it was a great ride and he will be missed.

The Outlook:

Barring anymore injuries to a still-strong core group, there is no reason to believe that the Colts cannot repeat as division champions. While an 11-5 or even 12-4 finish isn't hard to imagine, it is hard to imagine this team coming out of the AFC. On any given day, they have the ability to light up the scoreboard. The return of Dominic Rhodes after his one year exile in Oakland combined with the power of starter Joseph Addai gives the team a powerful 1-2 punch in the backfield. The triumvirate of Wayne, Mad Marvin, and Dallas Clark will be too much for the points-challenged competition in the AFC South.

The Prediction:

Wins the AFC South with an 11-5 record and bows out in the AFC Divisional round after winning on Wild Card weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Questions:

1) Is David Garrard ready to step up to the next level and become an elite NFL QB?
2) Do the Jaguars have enough offensive talent to compete with the great teams in the AFC?
3) Are there enough people in Jacksonville who care enough to support the team?

The Answers:

1) At the end of training camp before the 2007 season, head coach Jack Del Rio had a decision to make. Having missed the playoffs for the second straight year, Del Rio knew his job was on the line. He watched as a career back up David Garrard outperformed incumbent starter Byron Leftwich. With one bold move, Garrard was named the starter while Leftwich was released, and the fortunes of the franchise were changed instantly. Freshly minted with a 6-year, $60 million contract, Garrard opens the 2008 season as the clear leader of a resurgent franchise. After throwing for 2509 yards and 18 scores, can Garrard make the leap to next level? A 3000 yard season with 20+ scores is not impossible if he stays healthy, but he'll need to be patient working with a questionable group of receivers.

2) For Garrard it will be difficult throwing to the likes of Troy Williamson (former 1st round bust), Reggie Williams, John Broussard, Marcedes Lewis, and Matt "Blow" Jones (former 1st round bust). At least Garrard can take comfort in his Thunder and Lightning backfield of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, who will both help open up the passing game. However, as great as those backs have performed, will the current core group have enough firepower to beat the Patriots, Colts, or even the Chargers in the playoffs? (I'm not counting the Steelers since the Jags have proven they can handle them in January). All I can say is they'll need to average more than 26 points a game if they want to advance to their first Super Bowl.

3) While many people have lamented the poor attendance for Jaguars home games, it really shouldn't come as a surprise. While Jacksonville is the largest market in Florida in terms of population (surprise), no matter how you slice it, it is considered to be more of a college football town. The team has enjoyed a nice run of success since their inception, but I truly believe the NFL overestimated the market for their product. There is nothing more embarrassing for a franchise than hiding seats in their stadium in order to prevent local TV blackouts. It also doesn't help that the team is always rumored to be for sale (or even moved to a larger market like Los Angeles), although principal owner Wayne Weaver has been steadfast in his denials. In order for this team to overcome local fan apathy, they will have to eventually reach the Super Bowl. However, even a championship may not be enough to salvage the long term future of this team in northeast Florida

The Outlook:

This Jaguars team enters the 2008 season with high expectations; some would say those expectations are overly optimistic. ESPN has hyped Jax as the next "it" team and we know what happens when there is too much hype behind a team. We can easily analyze the roster and their schedule and conclude that this team could reasonably get to 10-6 or 11-5 or higher. I look at this team and I see a group that appears to have overachieved a bit last year. I see a QB that won't be nearly as efficient as his numbers were. I see a defensive front that will miss Marcus Stroud who went to the Bills and can't generate a consistent pass rush. Something tells me rookie Derrick Harvey may very well end up being a bust although Quentin Groves will be solid.

The Prediction:

The Jaguars will finish 2nd in the AFC South with a 10-6 record and in the playoffs as the last wildcard team where they are likely one-and-done. They are due for a letdown and nothing about this roster makes me look at this team as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Houston Texans

The Questions:
1) Can Matt Schaub stay healthy for 16 games and continue his ascent as a starting QB?
2) Can the Texans run the ball enough?
3) Can Gary Kubiak salvage the defense and turn them into a contending unit?

The Answers:
1) Last season Matt Schaub became the starting QB for the Texans after a promising, but undistinguished backup stint in Atlanta. He quickly proved that he was a significant upgrade over previous starter David Carr when he managed to throw for over 2200 yards in just 11 games. He quickly established a strong rapport with WR's Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter to form one of the better pass-catch groups in the league. The key for Schaub this season is to remain healthy working behind an improved offensive line (coached by cut-blocking legend Alex Gibbs). Can he count on Johnson to stay healthy as well? The success of Schaub and the rest of the team will depend on it.

2) Ahman Green enters the season as the starter after a season of injury although it's difficult to envision a scenario where he'll be able to stay healthy for 16 games (I see a theme here). Last year Green ran for just 260 yards and he will be hungry to redeem himself behind the improved line. Backing him up will be former Tennessee Titans RB Chris "MASH Unit" Brown. Brown is a nice talent with good speed (462 yards in 2007), but his proclivity for injury led some to wonder whether he was tough enough to survive in the NFL. They also drafted former West Virginia back Steve Slaton where it will be a far cry from his days in the Big (L)East. To be sure, the running game will be a question mark, but there is reason to be optimistic.

3) The Achilles heel of this team for years, the Texans have slowly put together a nice base of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Former overall #1 pick Mario Williams is a beast and completely validated former GM Charley Casserly's decision to select him over (soon to be busts) Reggie Bush and Vince Young. Williams had 14 sacks and 59 tackles while also becoming a more prominent run defender. DeMeco Ryans is a tackling machine. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year slowed down a bit with "only" 129 tackles, but the former Alabama star is poised for his best season yet thanks to a new training regimen. The secondary will be challenged early while Dunta Robinson recovers from injury, but Fred Bennett and rookie Antwaun Molden look to be future stars for the team.

The Outlook:

Last year was a success for a Texans team that finished last year at 8-8 in arguably the toughest division in football. Unfortunately it still wasn't enough to pull them out of the cellar. There are a lot of "ifs" with this team and for a change; there is a strong sense of optimism in their camp this year. With improvement at most positions and the new zone-blocking scheme on the offensive line, there is no reason to believe that this team cannot duplicate last year's record of 8-8 with a chance to go 9-7 or better. I like the attitude of this team and the leadership of its stars.

The Prediction:

I think the Texans continue their path to contender status by finishing 3rd in the AFC South with a 9-7 record although they will not qualify for the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans

The Questions:
1) Will Vince Young improve as a passer and a leader for the Titans?
2) Can Mike Heimerdinger turn the Titans offense into a contending unit?
3) Will the defense have enough in the tank to keep this team afloat?

*I decided to save this team preview for last because I had the opportunity to view many of the Titans' training camp practices in person. The reality is that many of my thoughts and opinions will be drastically different here so readers beware.*

The Answers:

1) By all reasonable measures, Vince Young went through a sophomore slump. He threw for 2549 yards along with 9 scores and 17 interceptions and lost a lot of his ability to make plays with his feet after suffering a quad injury mid-season. Last season he tried to quiet the critics by becoming more of a pocket passer and it backfired. He didn't do a good job reading defenses and he had the footwork of an offensive guard. However, he did manage to improve his completion percentage to 62%. While most of the blame went to former offensive coordinator Norm Chow, it was reasonable to say that Young didn't do himself many favors with his lack of accountability. The hope is that new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will be able to turn Young into a serviceable NFL QB. One thing that should help Young's numbers improve is the addition of TE Alge Crumpler who came over after a nice career in Atlanta. Crumpler will be the safety valve for Young and should compliment him the same way Frank Wycheck did for Steve McNair.

2) Heimerdinger was brought back to the Titans to revive an offensive attack that had trouble throwing the ball and scoring in the red zone. During 'Dinger's previous stint, the Titans actually possessed a Top-10 passing offense, so it will be interesting to see what he can do the second time around. He has made strides improving the footwork and decision making of Young, but it remains to be seen how much of that will translate to the field. He also has to contend with a group of receivers that lack any true star power. Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Brandon Jones, and Roydell Williams are the top 4 guys although it's hard to imagine any of them would come off the bench if they played for any of the other AFC contenders. 'Dinger will have a healthy LenDale White and explosive rookie Chris Johnson in the backfield to strengthen what was already a Top-5 rushing attack.

3) During the off-season, All-Pro DT Albert Haynesworth was slapped with the franchise tag after failing to reach a long term deal. With incentives built in to protect himself against the tag again after this season, expect Haynesworth to wreck shop and become even more dominant on his way towards free agency. Combined with the Energizer Bunny DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, the Titans' defensive front should be as strong as last year's edition. The return of the Freak DE Jevon Kearse has brought a new level of excitement, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay healthy for 16 games (which was ultimately his downfall in Philly). The linebacker corps remains stout although Steven Tulloch deserves to start ahead of MLB Ryan Fowler. The secondary with 2nd year star Michael Griffin and former 7th rounder Courtland Finnegan should continue to improve. The Titans defense was a Top-10 unit and there's little reason to believe there will be a drop-off unless the offense goes through a long stretch of three-and-outs during the season.

The Observations:

As I mentioned previously, I had the chance to view Titans training camp practices in person. I can honestly say that this is a team destined to go 8-8 or 9-7 at best. While Young does seem to be somewhat improved in his footwork, his decision making will kill this team. I really have to wonder why they refuse to tweak his sidearm throwing motion. While Young thrives in the shotgun, the Titans do not seem to have a lot of shotgun packages in Heimerdinger's offense. The offensive line had to replace two starters and those roles have been filled in nicely with Eugene Amano on the left side and Jake Scott (formerly of the Colts) on the right. Along with Mike Roos at LT, Kevin Mawae at C, and David Stewart at RT, the Titans offensive line should be a dominant unit.

The same cannot be said for the wide receivers. I hate to say it, but this could be the worst collection of receivers in the NFL. Justin Gage is the de facto #1 (755 yards in 2007) when he could barely get off the bench in Chicago. Justin McCareins is the #2 (232 yards in 2007) after several nondescript years for the Jets. It really doesn't matter who is slotted at #3-5. Rookie Lavelle Hawkins, former practice squad player Biren Ealy, Paul Williams, and Roydell Williams are all in the mix as well. The Titans have already parted with (former first round bust) Mike Williams and Chris Davis. How bad are these guys? A Vince Young pass sailed through the hands of Paul Williams on an "out" pattern and I caught it as a spectator along the fence.

The defense is sharp and it's a shame that a championship level group will be wasted. Ninth year pro Keith Bulluck is a beast. It is a disgrace that he hasn't played in more Pro Bowls, but he's a victim of a small market and an average team. Vanden Bosch simply hustles. He isn't the most talented, but he'll give you your money's worth. Finnegan should receive Pro Bowl consideration. He's not a large guy, but he's mean as hell and he's not afraid to challenge receivers at the line of scrimmage. Chris Hope looks to return to his All-Pro form after recovering from a severe neck injury last season. The big question mark is at LE where Kearse returns to the team that made him famous. I love his passion and energy, but I think he's simply too injury prone to make a lasting impact. Fortunately rookie Williams Hayes looks to be a strong contender to step in when Kearse eventually fades down the stretch.

The Titans are a team that could have easily been 7-9 or 12-4 last year although they did finish 10-6 and made it to the playoffs, losing in the first round to the Chargers. The defense wore down as the season went on due to the ineptitude on offense, particularly in the red zone. While the offensive struggles allowed K Rob Bironas to earn All-Pro honors, it was obvious that the Titans couldn't keep playing this way if they expected to compete for a title.

The Prediction:

Vince Young is on his way to becoming a bust and that will bear itself out this season when the Titans finish in 4th place in the AFC South with an 8-8 record and out of the playoffs.