On Saturday November 8th, Roy Jones Jr and Joe Calzaghe will engage in battle in a fight that should have been made 10 years ago when both were at the peak of their respective talents. Had the fight occurred then, I have no doubt that Roy would have handled business emphatically, most likely scoring a brutal knock out. Put simply, Calzaghe couldn't have carried Roy's jock. No boxer could.
If you recall, Roy handled Bernard Hopkins and James Toney while in their primes, two of the most difficult boxers to face because of their defensive abilities and overall boxing knowledge. Then Roy did the unthinkable, moving up to heavyweight and easily handling John Ruiz. That was my favorite Roy moment because even though he was outweighed by 30 lbs, there were more than a few rounds where Roy stood toe to toe and traded with Ruiz, getting the better of every one of those exchanges.
As we've all heard time and again, Roy had to gain a lot of weight for the move to heavyweight and then drop weight again in order to face Antonio Tarver at light heavyweight. Roy lost that 1st Tarver fight, even though the judges gave him the decision. Then of course he was knocked out in the 2nd go around. At that point, what happens to a lot of fighters when knocked out happened to Roy. He quit believing in himself. He lost confidence. He became overcautious.
People talk about the mental aspect of boxing, or really the mental aspect of anything. Think about this: Roy went from giving a tremendously brave performance against Ruiz to giving a horrible, cowardly performance in that 3rd Tarver fight. He could have knocked Tarver out whenever he wanted to, Roy was that sharp. He just refused to throw punches. I cringed when Larry Merchant interviewed Roy after the fight and Roy said, "At least I didn't get knocked out." That was Roy's rock bottom.
But he didn't quit, didn't listen to all the doubters and decided to make another run. The man who once came into the ring rapping in New York took to fighting a no name in Idaho. Slowly, he has tried to regain that confidence. I know Trinidad is done but after seeing their fight, I thought perhaps Roy had come to believe in himself again. I was excited to see what would happen next, maybe Roy would turn back the clock and give us some nostalgia for a couple more fights.
As November 8th grew closer, I was ready to predict that Roy would knock Calzaghe out. He has superior skills, more experience, he's a veteran, been in the big moments, stronger puncher, better defensive skills, etc. Roy does every aspect of boxing better than Calzaghe, except Joe throws more punches. That's it. But then I started watching HBO's Countdown 24-7 where cameras follow the two fighters around their training camps. Something doesn't seem right. Roy is different, almost weird now. It's not because Roy's punch drunk, he never took enough punishment for that to happen. It took a couple viewings to really catch it, but I think Roy is trying to convince himself that he can beat Calzaghe. He exuded what looked like false confidence. I don't think that Roy truly believes he can dominate the Welsh fighter.
This is unfortunate because the bottom line is, if Roy throws his hands Calzaghe is going to be taking a nap. Period. But if he doesn't, you can bet that Calzaghe will win. And just like the Calzaghe-Hopkins fight showed, you don't have to actually LAND punches for the judges to give you the victory. This sucks. I'm not a B-Hop fan at all, but he won that fight. If you're in a fight and you knock a guy on his ass and never get hit, you definitely didn't lose. At the worst it's a draw. So we've seen how judges score, and Roy needs to be prepared for this.
So the stage is set for Roy to shine, because Calzaghe has no power whatsoever, Roy has nothing to fear and should go out, have fun, throw his hands, and a knock out will come. I want to believe this will happen. I want to see Roy back at the top after hitting the bottom. But it won't. For reasons I could never explain, with all the talent Roy has, I still think he questions himself. So no knockout. Boring fight. Calzaghe by decision. You heard it here.
Since I knocked him out he has never been the same.
Calzaghe can't handle black fighters not named Jeff Lacy
What does a white boy know about boxing?
should be a good fight...and you know roy jones jr isnt lacking any confidence...guy says what he feels: http://blogs.msg.com/gameon/2008/11/05/-calzaghe-and-jones-jr-set-for-big-bout-saturday/
I think Roy shocks the world. He is one of the best counter punchers in the game even at 39
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