There is an art to picking an upset and boxing is one of the easiest sports to spot one when it is coming. That is why I was able to pick the two biggest boxing upsets of 2008.
Antonio Margarito over Miguel Cotto
And
Manny Pacquiao over Oscar De La Hoya
Now I am about to pick the 1st major upset of 2009 (sorry Arizona fans you may or may not get a surprise next week with my Super Bowl pick) and it is so easy to see you should be taking your entire paycheck, your tax refund (don't front you do rapid refund), your baby momma tax refund check or whatever money you won on my 2-0 NFL Championship weekend picks and put it on:
SHANE MOSLEY BEATING ANTONIO MARGARITO
You are probably thinking to yourself:
"But BonaFide one Cotto beat Mosley and Magarito beat Cotto so this is an easy win for Margarito right?"
My friend that is why I am paid 25c an hour to run this site because sometimes you have to look beyond the obvious.
When predicting an upset you have to look at three key factors:
1- Hunger
2- Matchups
3- Gut feeling
I have it on good authority that Margarito after beating Cotto got a taste of "Being the Man" and liked it and liked it a lot. Some fighters can handle that mantle of "Being the Man" and still fight at an elite level (see: Mayweather, Floyd) others once they get a taste of being the "King" lose their desire to defend the throne.
Margarito's motivation for his entire career was being the boxer nobody wanted to give a chance to. He built a reputation on being the most "ducked" fighter, but ironically after he beat Cotto he started to duck fighters (see: Williams, Paul). He even had to be prodded into taking the fight with Mosley.
I equate boxers to successful rappers. It is easy to talk about the streets and how hard you had it when you are coming up, but it is hard to rap about the streets when you live in a ten million dollar home and drive a car that cost more than the average income of a married couple. Same thing with boxers once Margarito "made it" I don't see the same fire and I don't see the same desire which in turn makes him prime for an upset.
Mosley is an older more skilled version of Cotto. I said this the day after the Cotto/Margarito fight that Cotto boxed the best first six rounds of his career in that fight. It was a thing of beauty. One of the best boxing exhibitions I had seen in a very long time.
The problem was while offensively while it was beautiful, defensively it was lacking. In the end Cotto just ran out of gas and his spirit was broken that he gave Margarito his best shot and he just kept coming.
Mosley is a smarter fighter than Cotto and won't get hit nearly as much while landing as much if not more against Margarito. Similar to how Paul Williams beat Margarito he will put early rounds in the bank and will be better equipped to hold on at the end.
Lastly you just have to go with your gut. Always trust your gut. I don't think Margarito has the mental makeup to be a long term champion. In the end I think he will be remembered for beating Cotto and not much else. He simply isn't skilled enough to continuously beat top flight boxers. Smart fighters like Mosley, like Williams can easily see how to defeat him and as long as they stick to the game plan they will win every single time.
Shane Mosley 12 Round Unanimous Decision.
MARK THE TAPE!!!!
lol at "baby momma's tax refund check"
DO I still exist?
Not sure about a curse, but I know he was spot on with pacquiao and spot on with the Cardinals
I am divorcing my wife. Can you manage me
thanks rob
Williams was extremely lucky to beat AM. He was getting rocked in the last rounds. Lucky for him there are no more 15 rnd fights. AM needs to make the money he deserves and figting Williams again did'nt make business sense.
Hahahaha. We'll see. Just like a fradulant mediums luck eventually runs out. There is no secret to predicting results - as your last tool suggests. Your gut feeling is diffferent from my gut feeling.
We'll see how is as sick as a dog soon enough!
your prediction tally i gonna be 2-1 by sunday. tony will bust him up bad.
The curse is over!!!
This dude Littal is on fire
Rob is on a roll. Tony got duffed foreal.
I stumbled upon this article , good call. I'll check back to see who you have for the Superbowl. We have the Cards with the points. Good writing