"Half the people in the world are walking around blind pretending they can see"
That gem was spoken to me by a drunk who use to hang out by the bus stop I use to take to High School each morning. For a drunk he was very profound and I often wonder if he was really a drunk or was he sent there to drop knowledge into my brain.
In retrospect he was probably just a drunk, but I always latched on to a couple of his random quotes. This particular one I always try to use when analyzing sports. The point being is that even though your eyes are open that doesn't mean that you are seeing what is going on.
There is no perfect way to make predictions when it comes to sports (trust me I know better than most), but if you really pay attention and don't let the white noise distract you, you can see where upset will happen.
There were a couple of simple reasons why Shane Mosley pulled off a huge upset of Antonio Margarito.
1- Margarito turned in Tony Montana
Some people are built to handle stardom. Floyd Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya and Sugar Ray Leonard come to mind. It is easy being the hunter, not as easy being the hunted. There were several reports not the ones you would see on ESPN, but underground reports that Margarito was letting the fame distract him from his preparation for the fight. It is hard to blame him because he has been fighting for 15 years in obscurity being ducked and dodged at every opportunity. But once you get to the top of the mountain you have to have even more dedication and drive than you did when you were climbing to the top. Maybe this loss will humble him so if he does make it back to the top he will use this as a learning experience. Only time will tell.
2- Experience over youth
Similar to a NFL running back when a boxer skills go they go quickly (see: Jones, Roy). If you have been watching Mosley over the last five years you haven't seen much slippage. The slippage that you have seen has been replaced by experience which at times can be more dangerous than raw skills (see: Hopkins, Bernard).
There was no doubt in my mind that Mosley watched the Cotto/Margarito fight and saw the blueprint to victory. I will be honest with you I could have trained Mosley for this fight and the outcome would have been the same it was that clear.
He pressured someone who likes to pressure. He threw massive body shots to someone who never gets hit to the body. He stayed off the ropes. He held as soon as Margarito was trying to build up any momentum.
Perfect game plan executed by an experienced old school boxer.
3- The mentality of a cheater
As soon as I heard that Margarito was trying to go into the ring with loaded gloves (I think he should be suspended for a year for that by the way) I thought two things. One that he knew he didn't train like he should have and two that he was going to lose.
When cheaters get caught before they actually had a chance to cheat their mentality will never be the same. Their confidence is shot and boxing is confidence sport. You have to believe you are going to win or you are going to get knocked out and that is what happened to Margarito.
HBO made a big deal out of Shane's distractions with the divorce of his wife pending and his BALCO steroid issues. Anyone who has ever had a controlling girlfriend or wife know that getting rid of that weight can be a burden lifted off your chest, so when I heard that I thought it would help Shane more that it would hurt him.
As far as the BALCO thing the easiest way to shut up someone who is subtly accusing you of cheating in your greatest victory is to replace that victory with an even bigger one. So to me these so called distractions in my mind benefited Shane a lot more than they hurt Shane.
In the end other great night in Boxing and on a personal note a great night for me. I am sure my Super Bowl pick will be highly anticipated now. Another upset coming? You will just have to wait and see.
Thanks rob
Even better the 2nd time around
So it was loaded gloves that beat me
Thanks for the info, article, and replay Rob. First time on this site and definately not my last.
That reminded me of when Antonio was a little boy and I had to beat his ass for peeping at his sister through the keyhole while she was showering. Maybe Shane caught Antonio looking at his wife in the audience.