I am no Mel Kiper Jr, but I did stay at a Motel 6 last night (all this talk about escorts had me curious, so yeah Asian/Filipino mix for the full story follow me on Twitter http://www.twitter.com/BlkSportsOnline) and if there is one thing that I know is there is no sure fire way to know if a Quarterback is going to be a Superstar or a bust in the NFL.
To win consistently in the NFL you need to have a good quarterback. To consistently compete for a Super Bowl you have to have a great quarterback. To win multiple Super Bowls you need a legendary quarterback. So you can't underestimate how important it is to have stability at that position.
It is an incredibly stressful position even when you are successful. Take Donovan McNabb for example. Before he walked in the building the Eagles were average at best. In ten years he has been to five NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl. By any standard that is a successful career and he still gets lambasted daily for underachieving (yes I know I am part of that, but I am making a point here).
You can't be a punk and play quarterback in the National Football League. Your mental toughness has to be as strong as your physical toughness if not stronger which leads us to the Detroit Lions and what they should do with the #1 pick in the draft.
The Lions are the first team in NFL history to go 0-16. They hold the #1 pick in the draft and quarterback Matthew Stafford from Georgia is who many believe they should take.
The reasoning is sound. If you are 0-16 and you are starting from rock bottom you need a face of the franchise. You need to secure the most important position on the field. It is the first step in moving forward in a positive direction.
While the reasoning is sound it would be the worse decision the Lions could ever make.
Let me be clear this has nothing to do with Matthew Stafford. I watched many of his games at Georgia. Physically there are no issues and he seems like a bright confident kid. Played a little up and down in college but that means nothing to me. Matt Ryan threw 19 interceptions as a senior and it didn't seem to affect him much. Stafford has the ability to be a franchise quarterback, but you just never know and that is the point.
A lot of people point to Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco as how rookie quarterbacks can come in and be an immediate success, but there is a huge difference in being drafted #3 and #18 and being drafted #1.
#1 means you are considered the best overall player in that draft. You are going to make the most money and have the greatest expectations. If you are quarterback the spotlight is even brighter and if you flame out you will always be remember as the #1 pick that was a bust and set your franchise back another five years.
Ask David Carr, ask Alex Smith, ask Jeff George and countless others how it feels to be branded with the failure of an entire franchise.
If the quarterback prospect is the consensus #1 pick you have to take him and hope you get a Peyton Manning or John Elway, but with Stafford he is by no means a consensus pick.
Here is what Stafford would be looking at if he was the #1 pick. A 0-16 team who have been horrible for many years who are looking for a savior. This is also a city that is being hit maybe the hardest during the recession. The team is an embarrassment right now to the city and the league. If Stafford is drafted the year after Ryan and Flacco he will be expected to win and win immediately. If he doesn't and he is a bust the franchise will crumble.
That is a lot of pressure on a Quarterback that isn't old enough to legally drink yet. If you are the Lions are you position to take that type of risk? At best it is 50/50 (and I am being generous) that it works out. I don't know about you, but I don't like those odds.
The smarter thing to do, similar to the Dolphins who went 1-15 in 200, had the #1 pick and drafted Jake Long then proceeded to have a very successful year is to draft the safest player on the board. By doing so it will temper expectations because no one is going to think a offensive tackle or a linebacker are going to change the franchise overnight, so any success will be seen as a positive.
The Lions have been known to make boneheaded decisions (see: hiring Matt Millen, drafting WRs ten years in a row and etc), but they have to be smart now. Stafford maybe the next Matt Ryan, but they can't take the risk he might be Ryan Leaf unless they want to go another decade being the laughingstock of the league.
Can't really argue with that. I think Stafford will be a bust by the way
I understand the point to be made. But just like the NCAA tournament... if you are going to take him out of the equation who are you going to take? The best player is Mike Crabtree, but come on seriously they can't do that. There isn't a consensus number one pick on the board so you would have to roll the dice with a guy who I think started as a tight end (BU guy right?). Then who would you pick?
You have to take the safest pick with the greatest talent.
Stafford to me is a lot like Brady Quinn talented guy, but not at the risk of #1
I got your Asian right here dude
Nicely put. I would take one of the OT. Build up those lines first before getting a franchise QB
The most important thing in my mind is that Stafford is like #20-25 on most people boards as far a talented players in the draft. You can't him at #1
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