The Window Theory

Each team hits this. It doesn't matter how good your team is, or how good your players are...teams enter this space. Some stay for extended periods of time, some are gone before you even know it.

A team like Jordan's Bulls...stayed in the in their own window for six dominant years. Not consecutively, but the six years they were there, dominance prevailed. When an NBA team has reached their "window," it only means that they have legitimate shots at winning the NBA title. Putting your team into the spotlight and entering into this window usually requires 1 if not more, of the following:

1) Superstar - a player that not only has the ball in his hands, but controls the every intricacy of the game, from the way the defense reacts to the way the refs officiate the game.
2) Chemistry - a team develops an undying bond between each other to set themselves up to accomplish one and only one thing together, a championship.
3) Trust - teammates realize that without one an another, they can't win. Whether it's letting their man go, baiting them into the paint because they know their center will intimate them into a turnover or a missed shot or their off-ball defense is sufficient.
4) Freedom - a coach understands the value of running an offense, all while understanding that sometimes five athletes on the floor have to take it among themselves to do the right thing.
5) Roles - each player has to know his role, be it defense, scoring or just setting picks.

The Chicago Bulls are one of the best examples. They had their superstar in Jordan, an uncanny chemistry between MJ, Pippen, Kukoc, Rodman and Ron Harper (insert Steve Kerr, Luc Longley, Randy Brown, Horace Grant anywhere here). They all trusted each other, and knew what they had to do. And to cap it all of, Phil Jackson knew exactly when to take over, and when to let Jordan and Pip do their thing.

The three-peat Lakers were of the same. This time around, they had two superstars, which made them a strong force to reckon with. Around them, they had great role players in Derek Fisher, Robert Horry, Devean George, Rick Fox, Brian Shaq and ironically, Horace Grant and Ron Harper early on. Each player knew what they had to do, and though we constantly heard stories about Shaq and Kobe unable to co-exist, at the end of the day, when both of them were on the basketball court, they knew there was only one job to do...win. And win they did.

We can go on and on about teams hitting their windows and succeeding. Miami did it for a year, with everybody buying into Pat Riley's system. All the elements were in place.

Last year's Boston Celtics hit their window instantly with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joining Paul Pierce. Once they came together, they all sacrificed a little at the expense of their personal stats to learn to trust each other, and understand that without one another, they can't win. That's the true definition of chemistry.

But these windows don't stay for very long sometimes. Ask Miami.

Or ask teams that have always been so close, just couldn't get it completely right. Five years ago, teams like the Sacramento Kings and the Philadelphia 76ers were co close. Chris Webber has a perfect supporting cast around him, but they just couldn't get it all together to ever win a title. Allen Iverson had an impeccable year to get his team to the finals, but clearly, you could see that there wasn't an insurmountable trust between Iverson and the rest of the players. Only Iverson put it all out there. When watching the 76ers fold against the Lakers in the Finals, we saw the rest of the team stay silent.

And then we have teams like the Dallas Mavericks, whom Mark Cuban can only assume was built to win a championship. Why else would he put so much money into a team and spend so much time in them. And he got them to the Finals one year behind Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry, but Dwayne Wade's power and window was just too much. But immediately, the following year, nearly the same team struggled immensely, and we saw them get thrown out of the first round at the hands of Baron Davis and the Golden State Warriors. Dallas has kept that core together in hopes that it'll re-ignite some magic again, but clearly that magic is not good enough. So Cuban traded blooming Devin Harris for Jason Kidd thinking it would put them over the top...but it looks like their window has officially closed. Teams have gotten better, and this Mavericks team has gotten older and arguably tired of playing with one another. And clearly, they had a small window, and it's gone. It's time to move some pieces around to get to that level again.

Windows come and go. Sometimes players get older, and they just aren't as quick or as strong anymore. And sometimes, players just stop listening to their coach. Sometimes though, nothing happens, but the teams around you simply get better. This would be the case with Dallas.

Sometimes things go well for so long, a team thinks they can just keep doing it. But then Lebron James is born. Boston rises. And all of a sudden, the Detroit Pistons are confused, unable to win games, and have slowly fallen out of the their window. Joe Dumars thought maybe he could keep them there by trading their team leader and getting Allen Iverson. Clearly, it backfired. And you can see the Piston team fighting for their life, not wanting to fall out of that window, but Detroit fans, I'm sorry. They are no longer there.

Phoenix is another great example. This was a team that was so close. So, so, so close. Every year. With a great core of Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the chemistry was there. The role players in Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa were there. But at times, the trust just wasn't there. Marion and S.T.A.T. kept butting heads. But even the first year they were in their window...Joe Johnson was on this team, and they took an early exit because of an unfortunate injury to Johnson. Imagine if he had stayed? That team would have been unbelievable. But Colangelo saw that their nucleus wasn't working anymore, and they were falling out of their window, and he did just what Dumars did...and made a big move, trading Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. We all know how that turned out. One year, a playoff exit in the first round. This year, not even in the playoffs. And with Stoudemire and Shaq on and off the trading block, I think this team has officially fallen out of their window...Just like Dallas and Detroit.

One team that seems to have stayed in their window for as long as they can is the San Antonio Spurs. Every year, we consider them in the top echelon of teams. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili make this team scary every year. But with Duncan getting older, he needs the other two. And with the Argentinian guard out for the playoffs, this team is in trouble this year. They might make it through a few rounds, but there's no way they can beat a team that's clearly in the peak of their window right now, the Lakers. But the Spurs for the longest time have had that pre-requisite for being in the window...superstars, trust, role players, and chemistry.

When a team falls out of their window, the trend seems to be that it takes them some time to get back to championship form. Some call it a curse, some call it bad managing. But since Jordan officially retired, we have yet to see a Bulls team come to true form and be in a window where they are truly contending for a championship. They've been close, but they never got there.

It took Boston nearly 10 years to get back to form, and now here they are, with a great three-headed monster. This year, however, it looks like they might be out of the loop with an injury to Kevin Garnett.

New York at one point lived right around the window, but since the Jordan days, they've never fully come back up. Allan Houston, Latrell Sprewell and Larry Johnson brought them extremely close but 4-point plays can only take you so far.

The Lakers however, did bounce back from falling out of a window rather quickly. After the Kobe-Shaq fall-out, Kobe's Lakers were nowhere near a contender, and missed the playoffs for the first time in years. About 127 games and a whole lot of drama later, The Lakers have a Kobe, Pau, Bynum, Odom attack with a solid (but poorly inconsistent) bench.

Lebron now has a solid team around him, and is now in his window. When he was in the Finals against the Spurs three years ago, he wasn't ready; his team wasn't ready. They were going up against a Spurs team living in a window. Now...with solid pieces all around him, this Cavs team is reaching their peak, and should be there for years to come (unless, of course, LBJ opts out.)

Windows come and go for every team. The key to having a championship team are those 4 elements (superstars, chemistry, trust and known roles).

And when you add those up...you really only have a few teams that have a chance this year.

The Lakers. The Cavaliers. The Celtics. The Spurs. The Jazz.

Put an upset here or there, and you might have teams like Houston, Portland or Atlanta come to life. But those teams are almost there. Houston has been on the cusp for so many years. With a breakup only inevitable this year for the Rockets, who knows how well off the Rockets will be next year.