Draft Day Advice

Pick guys who can play today.

Upside? We don't need no stinkin upside! If the only good things you hear about a potential draftee is that he has tremendous upside, run away. Fast. Kwame Brown had upside. So did Darko Millicic, Mahmoud Saer Sene, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, and a host of others. none of them panned out. Yes, drafting is about projecting the future off of potential, but there are some players who clearly have some skills already and can contribute from day one, while others have nothing to offer but athletic ability and size. You cannot your hopes in a guy who has no idea how to execute a pick and roll on offense, can't catch the ball, can't hit an open shot with any consistency, doesn't know how to get position for rebounds, and can't create his own shot just because he's tall, can jump out of the gym, and run fast. GMs who make those kind of picks tend to get fired, or run through a boatload of head coaches waiting for their upside guy to develop. Nine times out of ten, it just doesn't happen.

Flash back to 2006. Brandon Roy was labeled 'the best player' in the draft by all the mock draft people, and was projected to go fifth or sixth in just about every one. What kind of twisted logic is that? Upside guy Tyrus Thomas went second, despite having shown no evidence of any offensive skills whatsoever. Three years later Roy is an All Star and Thomas a rotation guy, getting minutes largely so that management can save face.

So to sum things up: pick guys who can play and leave the upside alone.

And now on to point number two.....ah, forget it. Point number one is all you need.

Pick guys who can play. No other advice needed.