"Yes, I regret it now, but only in retrospect"
Stan Van Gundy
Yes, the Magic missed 15 free throws. Yes, Dwight Howard missed 2 free throws with 10 seconds left that would've sealed the game. But even with all of that the game was lost because for some reason coaches refuse to foul late when up 3 points. YOU HAVE TO FOUL UP 3 POINTS LATE IN THE GAME. Two basketball championships (Memphis in NCAA last year and Orlando last night) have been lost in the last year because coaches haven't learned how to play out this scenario.
Under 10 seconds left in the game and up 3 it is a no brainer to foul. The only thing that can hurt in that scenario is a 3 pointer. Take for instance last night's scenario. I would've fouled whatever Laker had the ball as soon as they crossed half court. At that point it would've been under 6 seconds or so left in the game. Now the Lakers have to decide whether they try to make 2 free throws or make 1 and miss the other. Either way that is now more things that need to be done perfectly for them to tie the game.
Look at it like this, one shot ties the game if it is a 3. If you foul and they have to make 2 free throws just to cut it to one. And then they have to foul you and time runs off the clock when they foul you. Then if you make both of your free throws, foul them again. Keep making the opposing team have to make a number of plays not just one play to tie the score. And every time they foul you and you foul them time is ticking off the clock. Also that would be using timeouts to move the ball to halfcourt. At some point they're going to run out of timeouts and have to bring the ball the length of the court. Which is also going to take more of the little seconds left on the clock. And as long as you never give them a 3 point attempt they will never have the chance to tie with just 1 shot.
Say the team down 3 gets fouled and decides to make the first free throw and miss the 2nd one on purpose. That still means they have to make the first, and miss the 2nd one properly. How many times have we seen a team try to miss on purpose and not hit the rim? Even if they miss properly they still have to get the rebound and then hit a shot to tie you. Once again that is a number of things that has to play out perfectly in order for them to tie the score instead of just one 3 pointer.
Last year in the NCAA tournament John Calipari said he told his players to foul and they just didn't. Stan Van Gundy admitted that he didn't tell his players to foul last night. How do coaches watch as many games as they do and see as many game tying 3 pointers as they do and not learn this simple strategy? In the NFL coaches have a list of when they should go for a 2 point conversion based on score and time in a game. Well, let me write the manual. Under 10 seconds left in the game up 3, you ALWAYS foul. That's the manual, any questions see Memphis 2008 NCAA Championship or the Magic 2009 NBA Championship. And what you will see is they both lost not following this basic strategy.
Other plays and possessions can always be looked at in hindsight. But up 3 under 10 seconds all of what has transpired is gone. How many times have you seen the game tying 3 pointer? How many times have you seen the missed free throw on purpose tip out for a game tying shot? I think the answer to those 2 questions is quite clear and therefore strategy clearly dictates you foul.
great point... it's good to see quality articles coming back on bso.
He is the Master of Panic
If a team misses FT in the last minute while ahead and loses, you cannot blame the coach. Dwight was Nick "The Brick" Anderson reincarnated from 1995 at the same venue. Nick was in game 1, but the result is the same...series over.
SVG is the same guy who did design the play in game 2, however it was not completed.