"This is a make or miss league"
Jeff Van Gundy
Such an obvious and simple statement, yet one of the realest things ever spoken by a NBA commentator. Sometimes the games are so over analyzed and dissected that the obvious is missed. If Courtney Lee makes a lay up (albeit a difficult one) at the end of game 2 are the Lakers still in control of this series? Analysts, to justify their salaries, always come up with reasons beyond the obvious such as weak side defense and pick and roll offense. But it really just comes down to MAKING shots.
In game 1 of the NBA finals the Magic group of Rafer Alston, Michael Pietrus, Courtney Lee and Jameer Nelson shot a combined 13-41. All we heard was how the Lakers had stepped up their defensive intensity. Oh these are the Lakers that can't be beat when they play defense like that. I went back through the game and saw that group of players along with JJ Reddick missed 21 open shots. Yeah, maybe a late close out by a defender but in general good clean looks at the basket. The Lakers basically stated their game plan was to leave Alston open. So their stated defensive plan to leave the 4th best shooter on the team open is brilliant?
In game 2 that same group shot a combined 4-17. I remember Alston shooting an air ball on a wide open 3. And as bad as that group shot it still came down to a missed layup as time expired by a member of that group that was the game. In game 3 that group shot 17-27 and the whole team shot 62%. So I guess that means the Lakers didn't play any defense in game 3? The Magic group got the same amount of open looks they just knocked them down in game 3.
Kobe Bryant was unstoppable in the first quarter of game 3. And not because he was getting wide open looks. Most of the shots he was making were contested. Yet in the 4th quarter those same difficult looks he was burying in the 1st quarter weren't falling. It appeared Pietrus was contesting those shots in the 4th the same as he was in the 1st. So did Pietrus play better defense or did Kobe go cold? Same shots, same defense, different results.
In the NBA there are a handful of what I'll call Big Dogs: Kobe, Lebron, Wade, CP3, Duncan etc. who no matter home or away are going to produce. And 2nd tier players right below them are going to play well home or away 5 out of 7 games. But this league has a lot more players that are great at home and disappear on the road. So those open shots that the Waltons', Farmars' and Alstons' hit at home don't seem to fall on the road. This isn't to say they can't have a good game on the road here or there. But guys like that pretty much get the same looks on the road as at home. But their shooting percentages are better in the home arena. That is what makes teams like the Lakers so inconsistent. You know what you're getting from Kobe, Gasol and sometimes Odom. But everyone else is a crap shoot. If you're the Lakers just because Alston had a good game 3 you're not going to change your defensive game plan. You believe that if we lose we are going to make Alston and those types be the ones to beat us.
Everytime a point gaurd holds up his hand or calls out a play the defender motions to his bench the exact same signal. So every team knows exactly what their opponent is calling. This isn't like football where your not sure what the play is going to be. Everyone knows what the play is going to be. Who doesnt know that Kobe is going to be in the post on the triangle? What we don't know is when you double Kobe and he kicks it out is if Walton is going to make the open look. It is more about the execution of the play and whether the shot is made. This is a league of The Superstars taking a double team and the ball beng rotated for an open shot. And when that ball is rotated does that 3rd tier player make it or miss. Most of the time that is really where the games are decided.
This isn't to say teams can't influence the game with defense. The Lakers are doing a great job not giving any dunks to Dwight Howard and bringing the double on him from the baseline where he likes to spin back to. But the defense played today is nowhere near what it was just 10-15 years ago. Yes the players are more athletic, but they don't make it hard to get to spots and can't hand check like the used to.
What happens if Paxson misses the 3 against the Suns? What happens if Steve Kerr doesn't hit all those open looks from Jordan? Those were all wide open looks and players legacies are decided more than anything by...
"This is a make or miss league"
Jeff Van Gundy
We lost because:
-Kobe was a bit gassed in the 4th quarter.
-Critical 3 pointers just werent falling in.
-Kobe as well as others missed badly needed freethrows.
-Farmar just wasnt very productive and he didnt help others be more productive.
-The support players overall did not step up and fill in where Kobe was falling short in the 4th quarter; this the exact same problem that hurt us versus the Celtics (last year) and against the Nuggets.
I agree 100% with this thread.. even "your boy" Rober Littal .. overanalyzes who's clutch .. who chokes to justify his blog...
I was talking about this on a message board... 82games.com had a stat where Kobe was shoot in 25% in game winning situations... does that make Kobe a choker? I think not... but ppl can't just let players play ..
I like and agree with this article. Over analyzing is done because ESPN has to sell magazine subscriptions and ratings. Also, fantasy basketball owners (nerds) eat this stuff for breakfast.
My sentiments exactly. I hate it when analysts talk so 'authoritatively,' like they know exactly what the players are thinking, etc. I guess it gives them a sense of power or righteousness -- whatever, but like the writer I have observed that Team A's "defense" gets a lot of credit when
Team B's players are just plain missing shots, playing awful, playing a really stupid game (won't mention any names here, but see the Denver/Lakers series in particular) or the refs are -- no, no, don't get me started on the refs.
I guess one likes to think that he &/or his team are causing those very good effects by what they are doing and not just by what he is hoping & praying for, or some gift of favoritism that he is getting from a ref making particularly bad calls or phantom calls -- now that's another story altogether.
Actually Captain history will show that I am very specific in my assessments.