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BSO Staff Predictions: NBA Playoffs – First Round

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NBA fans everywhere rejoice, it’s the most wonderful time of the year! The NBA Playoffs kick-off this weekend and despite stars like Durant, Westbrook and Bryant missing from the action, fans are excited for what could be the best first-round ever (in the West at least). Of course, with the playoffs starting, it’s only right that the BSO staff off experts drops off their predictions for each first-round matchup. Let’s get right to it.

Western Conference

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(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans

The Golden State Warriors, with 67 wins under their belts, are an absolute machine on both ends of the court. With MVP front-runner Steph Curry in the back-court alongside Klay “37 in a Quarter, 26 when I’m taking it Easy” Thompson, the Dubs don’t lack offensive firepower. And while that end of the court gets a ton of attention thanks to Curry and Thompson NBA Jam-esque hot streaks, this team has gone from good to Title-Favorite Juggernaut because of the work they’ve done on the defensive end.

Behind two NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidates in Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, this team has been able to absolutely stifle any kind of offensive attack that an opponent may throw at them. They are the number one team in terms of defensive efficiency in the league. Couple that with the fact that they are the number two team in the league offensively, and well you have all the makings of a title contender.

The Pelicans are a different story. This is a team that is led by future best player in the world Anthony Davis and reminiscent of the Oklahoma City Thunder a few year sback when they were being led by a pre-MVP Kevin Durant. Davis and co definitely earned their way into the postseason, beating a fully-engaged Spurs squad on the last day of the season to clinch their place in the field.

While typically a 1-8 match-up is pretty one-sided, most 1-8 match-ups don’t feature a 6’11 athletic monster who can terrorize teams on both ends and win a few playoff games all by himself. While I see the Warriors pulling this one out, I expect Davis to win a game or two with monster efforts that make us all day-dream about his future in the league. Ultimately, the Dubs offense is just too much for the Pels.

Prediction: Warriors in 5

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(2) Houston Rockets vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks

In today’s NBA, there are plenty of bitter rivlaries. Clippers-Warriors, Cavs-Bulls and Clippers-Grizzlies are just a few match-ups that have a personal feel to them. None of them however have a rivalry quite like the Rockets and Mavs do today. Forget that these two teams are in-state rivals and that their rosters are pretty well-matched. The biggest issue between the two franchises is that Mark Cuban and Daryl Morey don’t like each other. At all. Like, they really really really don’t like each other. The animosity between the two is so great that each wants nothing more in the world than to win this series.

Interestingly enough, the most recent player to have ties to both sides is the one who can swing this series. Chandler Parsons has played well in his first season in Dallas, but he hasn’t exactly been a superstar. For the Mavs to have any chance at beating the Rockets, Parsons is going to have to play out of his mind on offense and ease the defensive pressure that will be placed on Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis by spreading the floor. Defensively, he knows the Rockets and will likely get a couple of cracks at guarding James Harden. Needless to say, Parsons is the Mavs x-factor in this series.

For Houston, they are coming off of their first division title since Hakeem Olajuwon was bringing banners to Houston. The fact that the Rockets won a division featuring the Spurs while Dwight Howard only played about half the season should tell you all you need to know about Harden’s MVP campaign. The two-guard has been dominant all season long, scoring at an efficient, albeit controversial, level by combining three’s, dunks and free throws. His offensive prowess and gains on the defensive end have carried a Rockets team hit by injuries all season-long to the two-seed in a brutal Western Conference and that is something that shouldn’t be overlooked.

So what happens in this series? Unfortunately for Dallas, Harden is just too good right now. After being knocked out of the playoffs by a miracle Dame Lillard three in last season’s first round, the Rockets have revenge on their minds.

Prediction: Rockets in 6

Los Angeles Clippers v San Antonio Spurs

(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) San Antonio Spurs

The Los Angeles Clippers finished the season on an absolute tear. The team went 14-1 down the stretch and looked at times like one of the elite teams in basketball, earning themselves a third-seed along the way. Their reward for playing so well when it mattered most? A first-round date with the red-hot San Antonio Spurs in what is easily the best first round match-up in the entire field.

The Clips are led by darkhorse MVP candidate Chris Paul. The man many consider to be the best point guard alive today has put together one of his best seasons ever during his 10th NBA season. But regular season production has never been the knock on Paul, it’s always been his output in the playoffs. Let’s be honest here, most people like CP3 and because of that you don’t hear much about his repeated failures in the playoffs, but it’s become more of a hot topic since Paul has joined the Clippers. This season, there are no excuses for the guard. Blake Griffin is healthy again and DeAndre Jordan is playing better than he ever has. If the Clippers are going to make a push, this is the season.

On the other side, the Spurs are, well they’re the Spurs. After a ho-hum regular season, the defending Champs turned it on down the stretch and absolutely dominated their competition, including an eye-opening win against the Warriors. Kawhi Leonard has come into his own as the season has progressed, taking the offensive freedom Gregg Popovich has given him and developing into a monster on both ends of the court. The fact that Leonard can pretty much shut any perimeter player down also bodes well for the team, especially in a match-up against Paul.

So what happens when these two contenders battle in the first-round? The Clippers have the home-court advantage, but against the Spurs that’s not as important as it would be against other teams. The Spurs are clicking right now, and we all know what usually happens in that situation, just ask the Heat last year. Sorry Clips fans, but this isn’t your season.

Prediction: Spurs in 6

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(4) Portland Trailblazers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

If there’s one first-round pairing that’s a toss-up for all the wrong reasons, it’s the battle between the Blazers and Grizzlies. Both teams had strong regular seasons, but injuries and a variety of other factors have led to each franchise struggling quite a bit down the stretch. It’s virtually impossible to know which version of each team will show up once the playoffs begin.

For the Blazers, things have been rough on the defensive end since losing Wes Matthews, easily the best perimeter defender on the team, to a torn Achilles. Having Dame Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge helps mask those issues on offense, but the team has struggled slowing opponents down since the injury. C.J. McCollum has done an admirable job filling in for Matthews, especially on the offensive end, but his size prevents him from being able to be on the court much with Lillard, who is a sub-par defender to say the least. Couple that with a possible season-ending injury to Dorell Wright and another injury to Arron Afflalo, and the Blazers aren’t exactly at full strength.

For Memphis, their injury report is more of a question than a known factor. Mike Conley Jr missed the team’s final game of the season, and said that if it were the playoffs he still would not have been able to play with his foot injury. As of now, there is no time-table for Conley’s return or for the return of Tony Allen to the team, so we just don’t know what we will see from the Grizz back-court once the playoffs start. What we do know is that Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will be a terror inside against the Blazers, and the team will try to grind wins out on the backs of their front-court.

So what happens when two injury-riddle squads face each other? The Grizzlies have the size inside to give almost every team major issues, but the Blazers are one of the few teams equipped with enough size and bodies to counter the Memphis attack. With Conley and Allen hurting, Lillard is going to have plenty of opportunities to score, and his offense is likely the difference in this series.

Prediction: Blazers in 7

Eastern Conference

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(1) Atlanta Hawks vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets

Similar to the 1-8 matchup out West, this series features a team that was dominant all season long, and another who turned it on at the right time to earn their way into the playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks in many ways were the surprise team of the league this season. While the Warriors made a great leap from good team to title contender, the Hawks came out of nowhere to take the league by storm. At one point, this team of perfectly-fitting parts won 32 of 34 games and the entire starting line-up was named Eastern Conference Player of the Month. The Hawks are a true team in every sense of the word. Atlanta has cooled off down the stretch, but that isn’t surprising for a team that had the Eastern Conference locked up with a month to go in the season. The Hawks finished at 60-22, and thanks to the attention the Cavs and Bulls are getting, Atlanta is somehow still considered an underdog out East.

The Nets are a totally different story. This team is filled with veterans who, for the most part, underachieved all season long. Deron Williams hasn’t been the same since signing a max contract. Brook Lopez was recovering from multiple injuries and Joe Johnson was aging like any guard at his age would. And then all of the sudden the team flipped a switch. Lopez became un-guardable in the post, and Williams was dropping 30-10 games like it was 2009 all over again. Out of nowhere, the Nets became a team nobody wanted to play.

So can Brooklyn keep the momentum going and shock the world in the first round? No, no they can’t. The Hawks are just too good offensively and have the tools on defense to slow the Nets down on the other end of the court.

Prediction: Hawks in 5

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(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (7) Boston Celtics.

Tell me if you’ve heard this one before, LeBron James and the Cavs will be taking on the Boston Celtics in the playoffs. Really, the story of Bron’s return to Cleveland wouldn’t be right without a playoff showdown with those hated Celtics. The names on the front of the jerseys may be the same as they were during those great battles a few years ago, but the teams could not be any more different today.

The Celtics are a couple of years removed from their last run of glory, but more than a few years ahead of schedule on their rebuild. Led by coach Brad Stevens, Boston has surprised a ton of people this season, winning their way up to the seven-seed out East in a season where most expected them to again be in the lottery. The fact that Boston has taken off after trading All-Star Rajon Rondo and leading-scorer Jeff Green is a testament to how well Stevens has done with this young group of guys. Of course, trading for sixth-man and scoring extraordinaire Isaiah Thomas at the deadline helped speed things up quite a bit. This team might not be the most talented in the field, but they very well could play the hardest.

The Cavs, well we all know plenty about the Cavs. They weren’t all that great in the beginning of the season, then LeBron took a two-week vacation, the team acquired J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov and voila, instant offensive juggernaut. This team has torn through the NBA since January, putting up some incredible offensive numbers behind James and Kyrie Irving and look like the toughest out on the Eastern side. If the Cavs can somehow figure out how to make use of Kevin Love (HOW HARD CAN THIS BE?!), they could take things to an unbeatable level.

Unfortunately for the Celts, this is easily the most one-sided match-up in the first round. Kudos on getting to the playoffs and letting the league know good things are coming, but tough luck on drawing the best player in the world and his offensive juggernaut.

Prediction: Cavs in 4

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(3) Chicago Bulls vs. (6) Milwaukee Bucks

Allow me to introduce you to the next, great regional rivalry in the NBA. The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks are separated by a few hours worth of driving, and are two teams that will likely be making noise in the East for the foreseeable future. Luckily for us, we get a playoff meeting between the two a few years ahead of schedule.

The Bulls are looking to round themselves into form that will make them true title contenders. Coming into the season, everyone agreed that a healthy Chicago squad was likely the favorite in the East, key word being healthy. Unfortunately for the Bulls, they’ve dealt with injuries all season. From another Derick Rose knee injury and surgery to All-Star Jimmy Butler missing a good portion of the second-half, the Bulls have struggled to stay healthy. The injuries haven’t been totally bad, as rookie Nikola Mirotic has shined at times in a bigger role, and that confidence should pay immediate dividends with Rose and Butler back in the line-up.

The Bucks are another team ahead of schedule in their playoff appearance. A year ago, they were the worst team in the league and looked like they had no great pieces besides a Greek Freak who was still figuring this country out. Fast-forward 10 months and the Bucks may have the brightest future of any team in the league today. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a superstar in the making. There are at least 2-3 times each game where he does something that makes you scream obscenities in disbelief at the TV. Khris Middleton has come into his own, and if Michael Carter-Williams can ever develop a jumpshot he could be the key to this team making the leap. And all that is without mentioning that Jabari Parker will be back next season to bring some real offensive fire-power to this squad.

So what happens in this series? A Bucks upset is not entirely out of the question, they are well-coached (never thought I’d say that about a Jason Kidd-led team), and have youth and nothing to lose. But the Bulls are an experienced group who knows anything short of a Finals appearance is a failure. Plus, we pretty much have to get the Cavs-Bulls in the second round.

Prediction: Bulls in 7

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(4) Toronto Raptors vs. (5) Washington Wizards

As is often the case in 4-5 match-ups, the first round tilt between the Raptors and Wizards is a pretty evenly matched affair. Either team could come out of this one and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise. For the losing team however, it will be a pretty big disappointment. Both of these squads looked at the beginning of the season like they could challenge for the Eastern Conference crown, but have slumped recently.

For the Raptors, this post-season is all about growing and learning from last year. After losing a tough first-round series against the underdog Nets, the Raps have had nothing but first round success on their minds the past 10 months. If they are going to advance this season, it will be on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to carry them. For DeRozan, this is a chance to put behind some struggles from last season’s first-round and carry his franchise to the next level. It will be interesting to see how well he plays with a ton of responsibility on both ends of the court.

Washington is an interesting mix. Their back-court is young but their talent is unlimited. John Wall is a fury of speed unlike anything we’ve seen in years, and couple with Bradley Beal’s incredible shooting, this duo is poised to be great for a long time in the future. But the rest of their starting line-up is filled with veterans who are ready to win now, and they will only go as far as the youngsters take them. Making the second round last season was a nice surprise for the Wiz, but anything short this year will be a complete failure.

So what happens when these two clash? While both team has a ton of young talent, the Wizards have the experience necessary to be successful in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Drake’s, it looks like they’ll have to wait another season to get out of the first round.

Prediction: Wizards in 6

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