Saturday May 2nd is set to be one of the most epic sports night’s in recent memory. We already have the fight of the century in Manny Pacquiao vs the undefeated Floyd Mayweather, we may have a potential game 7 of Clippers vs Spurs in a grueling first round matchup that resembles a conference finals in most years, and we have the first installment of the Triple Crown taking place at Churchill Downs.
The latter might not seem all that important on the surface, but if anyone out there has horse-race gambler as a friend or family member know, this little race is as big as the Super Bowl to certain people.
This year’s derby consists of 20 horses in the field, and each one of them brings with them a chance to chase immortality not reached since 1978, our last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed. The field for the derby is selected by using a point system that horse accumulate from the previous fall until now. Last year’s derby winner California Chrome, dominated in preliminary races and continued that dominance through the derby, taking home a winner’s purse of $1.4 million.
This year’s field has a horse that has dominated the field, Dortmund comes in to the derby undefeated, but somehow only has the second best odds to win the race at 3 to 1. The best odds belong to American Pharaoh (5 to 2) so this is setting up to be a great showdown between two of the more talked about horse prospects in the last few years.
Today I’m going to focus on a few of the horses that I think bettors should pay attentiion to, who knows, maybe a little added information can help you pick out that long-shot that will have you walking away looking like Wes Welker leaving the derby with a boat-load of cash, giddy on molly. (Wes Welker actually has a horse, Undrafted, running in the Twin Spire Sprint Turf Stakes at 1:19 pm)
American Pharaoh: American Pharaoh has never really had to battle for a win, completing victories with margins that vary from 3.5 to 8 lengths. After Wednesday’s poll position was announced, AP received a little bit of help by being set up in the 18th slot, meaning he will start all the way on the outside and will have plenty of room to try and build up a lead in front of the field. At 5 to 2 odds, this horse won’t yield a large return on a bet, but if you like handicapping heavy favorites, this is a good a pick as any.
Dortmund: Dortmund comes into the Derby with the huge size advantage over the field just like his father, 2008 derby winner Big Brown. Dortmund is undefeated and primed to spoil American Pharaoh’s fleeting glory. A lot of the wise money will be on Dortmund 3 to 1, don’t miss the boat on a potential money-maker.
Carpe Diem: This horse only raced 2 times this year. One a convincing victory and the other was a tightly contested loss after starting out in terrible position. Well Carpe Diem will be starting out in terrible position at the Derby, coming in from the number 2 post. It will be extremely hard to fight from the inside, but if Carpe Diem is somehow able to gain traction among the muck, he may have a shot to race to the finish line. With 17 to 2 odds, Carpe Diem may help you seize your day with an upset victory.
Materiality: Materiality also comes in undefeated at 3-0, although against a weaker competition field. Like Carpe Diem, he starts out on an inside poll position slotted in the 3 post. With 14 to 1 odds on winning the derby, Materiality is definitely a good bet to place or show.
Firing Line: Firing Line is the only horse to not back down from Dortmund this year, having finished a head length behind in two races this year. Firing Lane has experience against some of the best in the field and will surely not show any signs of fear. He has a good post at number 10, and the same odds as Materiality at 14 to 1.
Long Shot
Danzig Moon: Danzig Moon is the long shots of all long shots, he completely embarrassed himself in Tampa, but besides that has shown to be a decent distance runner. Word around the Churchill Downs raceways leading up to Saturday is that Danzig Moon has looked amazing on the track in practice runs, maybe that translates to race day and a few things will break his way. At 50 to 1 odds, this is the type of bet that can have you laughing all the way to the bank if it actually does hit.
My prediction:
1. Dortmund
2. American Pharaoh
3. Firing Lane
show: Danzig Moon