After what has felt like the longest break in the history of the world, the NBA Finals FINALLY tip-off tomorrow night from Oracle in Oakland. While few predicted a Cavs-Warriors Finals when the season began, one thing that has become clear all year long is that this is the series we’ve all wanted to see decide the title.
And the Basketball Gods have blessed us with a match-up that should be nothing short of electrifying.
Each team has an MVP, an All-Star sidekick who can take over a game at any time, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and a foreign big man protecting the rim. But who has the advantage and who will ultimately win the title? Let’s take a look.
What’s At Stake for the Cavs?
You mean besides bringing Cleveland it’s first professional sports title since the Browns won the 1964 NFL title (not even a Super Bowl, an NFL title)?
Can I interest you in LeBron James possibly delivering the single greatest individual postseason in NBA history and cementing himself as one of the top 7 players of all-time?
The King has a team missing Kevin Love, whose second-best option is an injured Kyrie Irving, and a roster of journeymen and highly-combustible personalities. So of course, they have steamrolled their way to the NBA Finals with a 12-2 record this postseason.
Wait, what?
That my friends, is what we call the ‘LeBron James Effect’. James has taken a team that is basically a little bit better than the Knicks, to the NBA Finals, and it’s been a breeze for the most part. Before we even look at LeBron’s numbers, just that postseason record, and the dismantling of a 60+ win Hawks team in a sweep that had exactly one close game, is enough to say that Bron is having an all-time great postseason.
But then we get to the numbers and it’s hard to deny that the King is having what could quite possibly end up as the greatest postseason run ever. The stats are astonishing.
28 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block per.
All this while being basically the only player on his team that defenses have had to gear for thanks to Irving’s injuries. Granted, his turovers are higher and his field goal percentage is lower, but these are generally things you’ll take when someone is basically putting up a triple-double every night.
When you take into account that James has done this against two teams that were ranked in the top-six in the NBA defensively this season, it makes his run that much more impressive.
But now, James is running into a team that has a roster much deeper and much more talented than his Cavs. And his opponents roster is the deepest on the wing, where James will be facing a litany of defenders (Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes), who will almost always be fresher and less exhausted than him.
Let’s be clear here, on talent and depth alone, the Cavs are clearly the underdogs in this series. Yet a good number of experts, including BSO’s own staff, are still picking them to win the title. That’s how effective a locked-in LeBron James is.
And for the first time in his career, James is actually in a win-win position in the Finals (to most sane people at least). If the Cavs lose, it’s expected, and the blame will be on injuries and a lack of depth instead of squarely on James’ shoulders.
But what if the Cavs somehow pull together and win this series?
LeBron James will have placed himself atop the all-time NBA hierarchy, among a handful of legends, regardless of what happens the rest of his career. The King will have his third title and a legitimate claim to the greatest individual postseason ever.
No pressure LeBron.
What’s at Stake for the Warriors?
Not much, just the opportunity to cement themselves as one of the top-10 teams in NBA history by following up a 67-win season with a dominant playoff run en route to their first title in four decades.
Coming into this season, the Warriors expectations were set at ‘Second-round is the goal, Conference Finals would be amazing.’ levels. The team hadn’t changed much with their roster, and the biggest difference between this season’s squad and the one that lost in the first-round last year was a new head coach.
Or so we thought.
But my goodness, what a difference a year can make. Since the beginning of the season, Kerr has become a top-five coach in the NBA, Draymond Green has blossomed into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, potential All-Star, and all-around Swiss Army knife that allows the Dubs to adapt to any opponent. Harrison Barnes has turned into one of the deadliest three-point shooters in the league somehow, and Andre Iguodala has become the consummate sixth man for what has turned into the deepest roster in the league.
Oh and what about their backcourt? Well, Klay Thompson has become an All-Star two-guard capable of scoring 37 points in a quarter and torching your entire defense at any time. And that under-sized Steph Curry guy has gone from ‘trendy All-Star pick’ to ‘NBA MVP and Top Five Dead or Alive’, capable of putting on the most entertaining show in the league any given night.
So yeah, a ton has changed for this team.
And despite everything listed above, the most important change has been the defensive switch the Dubs have flipped this season. After being a good but not great defensive squad last year, the Warriors have morphed into the #1 defense in the league under Kerr. Couple that with the fact that the team is the #2 offense in the league, and well you can see why they won 67 games and had one of the highest point differentials (+10.1) in NBA history.
Oh, and did I mention that Green, the glue that holds this whole team together, is a restricted free agent looking for a max contract this summer? While it’s far from a guarantee, there’s a chance he could leave the Dubs if the team isn’t willing to go into the luxury to retain him. This might be the best shot this roster is ever going to get at an NBA title.
So yeah, the Warriors have a ton at stake here.
In NBA history, of the 10 teams to win 67 games or more in a season, all but three have won the NBA title. To be even more specific, every team since the merger to win 67 games in a season has won the title except the 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks team that famously lost to the Warriors in the first round.
Basically, despite the fact that the team has far exceeded all expectations this year, anything short of an NBA title would be pretty much be one of the biggest disappointments in NBA history after the season the Dubs just had.
Again, no pressure for a team with zero NBA Finals experience outside of their head coach.
So Who Will Be Your 2015 NBA Champions?
As I’ve said earlier, on paper, the Warriors are prohibitive favorites and should be treated as such.
But looking at this series on paper doesn’t account for the impact LeBron James has all over the court. The Warriors are going to have to plan their whole strategy around (hopefully) slowing the King down, and ultimately that is going to decide who comes out of this the NBA Champion.
It’s likely that the Dubs will send double teams at LeBron off of Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov and Iman Shumpert, and dare those guys to beat them.
They could also bait JR Smith into taking so many 3’s that we suspect him of wearing a Knicks jersey under his Cavs uniform while analysts spend two weeks discussing things like “Can JR Smith set the Finals record for both made and missed 3’s?” and “How long until LeBron Kills JR?” while we all laugh uncontrollably.
Most would look at this series and think a strategy built around stopping LeBron, and a locked-in, playing at all-Universe levels LeBron at that, might not be the wisest thing in the world.
But here’s the thing, if there’s any team in the world with the depth to do so, it’s the Warriors.
Alone, Green/Thompson/Iggy/Barnes are not going to shut LeBron down. But in 5-6 minute spurts that ensure the man guarding the King is always fresh? Well they can definitely do enough to slow down a LeBron who will undoubtedly be playing exhausted while attempting to carry his team night to night during this series.
I think LeBron is going to have a great series, and potentially average a triple-double in the Finals. But it’s going to require him to put in so much energy against fresher defenders that he won’t be able to sustain that level for all four quarters of each game.
Couple that with the fact that the Dubs depth allows them to have a fairly fresh Steph Curry likely going against an injured Kyrie Irving or a slower Iman Shumpert, and the Warriors will have the clear advantage down the stretch of what should be some pretty tight games.
