Today has been a whirlwind of news coming out of the UFC.
It began with Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos revealing that he suffered a broken foot that will force him out of UFC 196. The narrative quickly turned to the list of possible opponents for Conor McGregor. As we stand there are two men in the forefront of the ‘Red Panty Night’ sweepstakes, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and Nate Diaz.
Both of those fighters provide a stiff test for McGregor and both present different challenges for Conor.
Cerrone’s kicks are some of the deadliest in the UFC. He can keep fighters at a distance while wearing them down with his leg kicks, similar to the challenges presented by Jose Aldo. The difference is that Cerrone has proven to use those kicks as KO blows when needed.
Cowboy also has a ground game that is as dangerous as anyone McGregor has faced. Mendes showed the ability to take Conor down at will but his submission skills were not the caliber of Cerrone. Donald showed his ground skills last Thursday by submitting Oliveira with a triangle that he sunk in from full mount.
https://youtu.be/_xoEWCAhbvQ
Diaz also provides an unique set of skills. His strengths revolve around his experience in boxing and MMA striking.
Diaz is never one to back down from a fight and shows the ability to agitate his opponent into slugfest, which is right in his wheel house. His punches don’t have th empower of others in the 155lb division but he throws them in a flurry and opponents find it difficult to handle the barrage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvGzEc6_73Y
There’s very little doubt that Diaz and McGregor will put on a great show both on the mic leading up to UFC 196 and on fight night but we are here to talk about what every other MMA journalist is glancing over…
What happens if Conor McGregor was to lose to Cerrone, Diaz or any other fighter that steps in at UFC 196?
Heading into UFC 196 many felt that McGregor was in a win-win situation. He planned on making history by becoming the first simultaneous two-division UFC champion but a loss to a well accomplished Rafael dos Anjos wouldn’t have hurt his status. RDA had run through the lightweight division and McGregor was moving up to challenge him with no UFC experience at that weight.
That fallback no longer exist and McGregor’s first foray into the lightweight division comes with great risk for both him and the UFC.
With a loss McGregor losses out on his dream of becoming a champion in the lightweight division. Cerrone would leapfrog Conor in the title rankings and with the return on Khabib Nurmagomedov his next opportunity at the lightweight belt would be pushed to 2017 at the earliest.
Assuming Conor isn’t placed on an injury suspension after the hypothetical loss, he’d still be able to main event UFC 200 but it’d be for his featherweight championship instead of entering the fight as a two division champ.
You’re probably thinking that the UFC is happy as long as Conor is still on the marquee but the amount of titles affects the amount of money he can draw. Every time McGregor fights he now takes a bite out of UFC history and not much is bigger than a man who seems unbeatable. A loss at UFC 196 would change the way they are able to market his fights.
With a win at UFC 196 the UFC’s plans are just set back a few months. Conor would most likely go on to challenge RDA at UFC 200 for a chance at history, then defend his feather weight belt against Frankie Edgar in the Fall and set up a chance to face the welterweight champion at the beginning of 2017 to become the promotions first 3 division champion.
That’s a lot riding on a UFC 196 fight that still isn’t finalized. Conor has been able to win these short notice fights in the past but the odds are against stacked against him every time he tempts fate.
The UFC knows this but money speaks louder than sensibility.
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