The Football Gods Will Reward Bill Belichick For 4th Down Call
Do you believe in karma? I am a big believe that things happen for a reason. I believe you control your luck by your actions. I believe things are predestined. I believe it was written that Tom Brady would Wally Pipp, Drew Bledsoe.
But I also knew when the Patriots went from beloved underdogs to mega star favorites the football gods would have their revenge. First they were caught cheating. Then they went 18-0. only to lose in the Super Bowl. Finally the superstar QB who himself went from “Aw shucks” to “GQ” blew out his knee and the team went 11-5 only to see “quirky” NFL rules leave them out of playoffs.
Tonight I feel that Football Gods got their last piece of revenge and in turn the Patriots will be a better team.
There is a phrase I like to use and may have use over 400 times during this NFL & College Football season.
“The Football Gods favored the Bold.”
When Bill Belichick decided to try to “win” the game as oppose to do what everyone expected him to do, I stood up in my living room an applauded him.
The NFL and College ranks are filled with coaches who are scared to take chances. Scared to have confidence in their team. A lot of people will say Belichick didn’t have faith in his defense I say that he just had that much faith in his offense.
If I was a NFL player this is the type of coach I would want to play for, as oppose to one who kicks FGs on 4th and 1 in the opponents territory (yes I am talking to you Andy Reid).
Because of the bathwaterslurping society we live in, if the 4th down attempt would have been a success everyone would have been saying what a “bold” move Belichick made, but because it failed and people like to follow opinions they immediately said it was “stupid”.
Belichick took a calculated risk and failed, but in my opinion it will springboard the Patriots to bigger and better things. The facts are on 4th and 2 and shorter conversions rates are more than 50%. Yes they were deep in their own territory, but once again they were playing to win the game as oppose not to lose.
You think the Patriots care if they have to come back to Indy for the playoffs? You think the Patriots will be afraid to go anywhere in play? Because how can you play scared when you know you coach basically just gave a big F-U to the way things should be done.
Fans are manipulated by the media to think a certain way. They are told certain situations there should be “absolutes”. Luckily my mind has been detached from the Matrix for many years and I know there is no such thing as an “absolute” in sports.
Sometimes you just GO FOR IT and live with the results. The Patriots and Belichick lost the game, but in the end I believe they will win the war.
They have the Football Gods on their side.
they definitely look like it..defense is still mediocre but they can outscore most
Absolutely nut to think this way
Being a Pats fan all my life it has been a tough week for me. But my agitation turned to anger when I found that there were a significant # of Pats fans calling for Belichick's head this week. The man has studied the ins and outs of football his whole life. He had one of the most successful Qb's ever to play the game waiting on the sidelines with a 2 minute warning and 3 time outs to win the ball game. The Defense had been slipping since the 2nd half, but your offense is still moving pretty well. Brady had been picking apart the Colt's D all game. Kevin Faulk excels in these situations perhaps better than any running back in football. The question boils down to whether you would rather but the game on Brady's shoulders were he has been so successful in these situations against a porious Colts secondary, or a your tough but tired D that had been fully analyzed by a great QB mind who runs a no huddle as effeciently as Jim Kelly.
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As a Colts Fan I'm laughing at this post I get why Belichick did it I mean the Colts can score at a lightning rate but at the same time it was also incredibly stupid to give Manning a short field. Regardless we in Indy like to think Bill for the early X-mas gift.
You might want to also thank Lawrence Maroney for the fumble on the goal line in the 3rd qtr that would have buried the Colts…
Well first of all the pass Interference call was just wrong and they got the first down. But put all that a side and your just an ass and will be on your ass watching the Pats and Belickick win there 4TH SUPER BOWL!! Why would you be So good luck and see you in the play-offs
Typical Patriot's fan. Poor grammar and doesn't know the difference between their and there. I guess that's how cheater's and THEIR fans write!!
lol. The only semi-valid defense of this call is that it showed confidence in his team. That is not worth making an idiotic call that costs your team a game that should have given you a shot at a bye in the playoffs.
I couldn't agree with you more. Great post!!!
So you dont want to give your players any credit for causing the fumble my Maroney? Funny how your team just got luck and won a big game and you are talking about my team and not yours…Says alot…Good luck in Baltimore….
Someone asked me if my opinion change since i slept on it. Absolutely not.
This is for all you Pat haters, this will make that Pats better.
NFL STATS:
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
Statistics aside. They still lost. Cheaters!!!!
That is a pretty funny comment
Thank you for this. I'm not sure I buy the whole football gods thing, but I do buy players responding to a coach with guts. You are right on about the media and how different the response would have been if they picked it up. If we play them again the playoffs (is there any doubt?) the Pats will have so much confidence because they know they should have won this game. I like our chances!
I sent this to King too who is a much worse poker player than you obviously. He estimated that Manning scores 35% of the time in that situation and the Pats convert 65% of the time for a first down. This is not unreasonable. Given these numbers the choices are equal even if the Colts always score and the Patriots never have any time left to go down the field. That is, the Patriots win 65% of the times with either decision!
If the odds are more like 70% Patriots conversion and 50% for Manning to stick a effing dagger in their heart (in a night game on national TV seems low, but stay with me) then the Patriots win 70% of the time by going for it but win only 50% of the time by punting. Are you still going with the conventional wisdom? If so, join me at Full Tilt Poker and we'll play heads-up for rolls.
Although Belichick's call is questionable, don't forget that Maroney fumbles going into the endzone and then several minutes later, the Pats' stall inside the 10 yard line and are forced to kick the field goal. If they score on either of these possessions (Maroney's especially) then it's "game over". The loss wasn't simply a result of Belichick's willingness to roll the dice
Excellent article!
I actually agree with the decision because if they convert, they win, game over. I do disagree with the play. i would have thrown a screen to Welker who I don't think ever gets less than 5 yards on that play all night or to Moss. No route would have been less than 5 yards. The Pats simply could not stop the Colts from scoring at that point no matter where they had the ball and I think they understood that. I think the play was actually much closer than the spot, if not a first down. I am a Bucs fan with no horse in this race, but I would have gone for it, called a better play and if I failed, I would have let the Colts score quickly. Brady would have only needed about a minute to get into field goal range for the win.
All the comments have been so well thought out. I must say you guys are some intelligent readers
The Patriots Apologists seem to be out in full force today! Pretty much as expected.
Sure, Pats fanbois are going to stick-up for their favorite coach. That’s a given.
It’s also a given that Pats fans are going to point to other parts of the game and shout out ‘what ifs’ like crazy – “What if Maroney didn’t fumble ont he 1?”, “What if the Pats weren’t stalled on the 10?”. Etc. These are hilarious, because they don’t give any credit to the Colts D, and they also ignore all the Colts “what ifs”, too, like, “What if Peyton didn’t throw those two interceptions?”.
The only ‘what if’ that really matters is “What if the Pats would have punted”? Afterall, that’s what we’re talking about – the “Call heard round the world”. Well, if the Pats convert on 60% of their 4th downs of 2 yards or less, then apparently Bill thought the Colts would have had a better than 40% chance to score if he had punted.
Even as a Colts fan, I don’t think Peyton’s odds would have been 40% to drive 70+ yards without any timeouts for the win (and that’s thinking Peyton is one of the greatest of all-time).
The bottom line is – you can say the call was ‘gutsy’ or ‘brave’ or whatever you want – the end result is another L for the Pats. The call was terrible. Period. They lost. Onto next week.
Pats fans should still be feeling pretty good, though. They’re still in the drivers seat for their division, they get to seal it next weekend, and other than Pitt and Indy, I just don’t see anyone else having the juice to stop them in the AFC.
As much as I hate the Pats, they’re a damned fine team. But the ‘gutsy’ call last night was just plain dumb.
conventional wisdom says that going for it was 'just plain dumb' but the statistics don't really back that up. and indy DID still have 1 time out left, so that makes a difference as well. The previous few touchdown drives by Indy had all been about 2 minutes long or less and they weren't playing with as much desperation as they would have been on a final 2 minute drill. obviously we'll never know for sure whether the pat's D would have stopped Indy on a longer drive.
i think belichick and the pats made some big mistakes towards the end of the game, but going for it on 4th down was not one of them. Burning the time outs did not allow them to challenge the spot, and it really looks like faulk had the first down. But i think their biggest mistake was passing the ball on 3rd down. If belichick knew that he was going to go for it on 4th down (maybe he didn't) then he absolutely should have ran the ball on 3rd and 2. I think the statistics prove that going for it on 4th down was, at the very least, a reasonable decision. And it didn't look like the Patriots were going to stop Manning whether he had to go 30 yards or 70. I am imagining a rematch in the AFC championship game. That will be something.
70% this 40% that. All I know is that at the end of the day the Pats 100% LOST and the Colts 100% WON.
wow, you should be a professional football analyst. real insightful.
next time you steal an entire post from TMQ at least admitt it.
They claimed these games are a chess match between Manning and Belichick. During the early part of the decade, Belichick was the one with all the answers, messing with Manning's head. Now the tide has turned, and Manning flustered Belichick. He was afraid of Manning with the ball and 2:00 on the clock.
Is this a joke? You stole an entire concept from ESPN's TMQ and didnt even mention it? Wow……
It was an unbelievably exciting game with two brilliant teams playing against each other. In terms of coaching, there seems to be a fine line between being cocky and being courageous. In Belichick's case, during this particular game, he took the courageous risk because he believed in his team. It was a war and a beautiful one at that, to see such fine teams try to outsmart the other. Winning by one point shouldn't make the Colts feel that secure and will only make the Patriots stronger and more powerful next time around, with whatever team they play.
Impressive.
Go Patriots! All the way!
Patriots fans are rapidly transforming into the biggest bastion of whiny, pathetic fanbois on the planet. The mystique of this team disappeared when Goodell burned their videotapes. Now they're just another team with a strong (albeit one-dimensional) offense and weak defense. They'd better pray for Moss to stay healthy, because without Brady being able to just throw the ball recklessly and have this freak grab it, they have little more than a dinky-dunky passing game. They deserved to lose the game, and they'll lose again in more convincing fashion if they return to Indy. The rookie receivers on the Colts dropped some perfect deep passes, and that won't be happening again…
As a football player, one who plays the game to win championships and not just collect checks, BB's call is exactly the call you want your coach to make. It's the challenge you train for and want to happen. It's the call that puts control in the player's hands because the ball is in their hands. As for a fan, that call is probably misunderstood more than anything because an enormous majority have never played a down of football in their lives. And right or wrong call, it comes to execution. BB thinks like a champion. It doesn't always work out. That's called life. Time will show if the rewards of that call are yet to be collected.
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