Things are starting to work themselves out for the college football playoff picture. The contenders are separating themselves from the pretenders each week and the once crowded group of 1-loss teams is starting to thin out. This past weekend once again threw a wrench into the playoff picture as several teams competing for a spot stumbled.
Who’s In?
- Florida State
This team has nine lives. No matter what kind of hole they continue to put themselves in, they continue to find ways to dig themselves out of it and win the ball game. Jameis Winston isn’t having a Heisman like year like last year, but he continues to find ways to successfully navigate the comeback trail. I’ve said this before, but I will say it one more time…. good teams find a way to win.
- Alabama
I wasn’t impressed with the Tide’s resume previously, but after a road victory in Death Valley and controlling the #1 team in the land from opening whistle to the final gun, they have cemented their place in the Final Four. Even though they only won by 5 points, the game was never as close as the score indicated, Alabama put a damper on Dak Prescott’s Heisman candidacy and forced him into his worse performance of the year. With only Auburn and the SEC title game left on the schedule, chances are good Alabama is here to stay in the Final Four.
- Oregon
The Ducks took a week off to get healthy, but are very much still in the hunt. With Colorado and rival Oregon State remaining on the schedule, it will take a serious hiccup for the Ducks to not be in the PAC 12 title game.
- Mississippi State
This is where things get interesting for me. This spot comes down to TCU and MSU and I see MSU getting the nod currently over the Horned Frogs. The Horned Frogs would have been in for me with a convincing win over Kansas on the road, but instead they had to navigate the comeback trail and only won by four. While MSU was not impressive against Alabama and seem to have struggled a bit as of late, they remain in the picture for now.
Who’s Out?
- TCU
As I said above, the Horned Frogs are on the outside looking in by the slightest of margins at this point, but now the gap between them and Baylor has tightened even more than before. Thanksgiving in Austin could be very interesting, as Texas’ defense has proven it can slow down the most potent offenses in the Big 12.
- Baylor
The Bears we off this week and even though they didn’t play, TCU did them a favor by not putting the Jayhawks away early and allowed the race for the final spot to tighten even more.
- Ohio State
After suffering an early home lost to an average Virginia Tech team, the Buckeyes have battled their way back into the playoff picture. JT Barrett and Joey Bosa are the real MVPs for the Buckeyes this year, but they still need a lot of help to make it in at this point.
Summary
The battle for the fourth spot is about to rev up over these next few weeks. While Mississippi State is in the dance for now, I can see them getting the boot for TCU or Baylor when they lock up the Big 12 title. A conference champ should and will get the nod of team who won’t participate in their own conference title game. I know some folks aren’t happy with Florida State being ranked where they are, but I have simple rebuttal to that. Are they undefeated? Are they in a Power 5 conference? If the answer to both of those questions is yes then they are ranked properly. While it hasn’t been pretty at all times, the Noles haven’t lost in almost two years. They played the same schedule last year and beat the SEC champ for the national title, so all that complaining falls on deaf ears. When a team wins all of games on their schedule in a Power 5 conference, you can’t hold it against them because it wasn’t pretty enough. It seems the SEC is the only conference who gets the benefit of the doubt when you lose a game or two or win ugly, but that’s a conversation for another day.