When Luka Dončić opened the 2025-26 season by racking up 43 points in the opener and 49 in his second game — a total of 92 points that set a Lakers record for the first two games of a season — the conversation quickly shifted from admiration to speculation. Could the 26-year-old actually average 40 points per game over an entire season?
It’s an intriguing question, but history and math suggest the odds are stacked against him.
The Benchmark: Wilt and No One Else
Only one player in NBA history has averaged 40 points per game for a season — Wilt Chamberlain. He did it multiple times during the early 1960s when the pace of play was dramatically higher and defenses were less sophisticated. In today’s game, even the most prolific scorers have struggled to touch the mid-30s.
Dončić led the league in scoring last season at 33.9 points per game, an incredible number that still fell well short of the mythical 40 mark. Sustaining that much volume and efficiency for six months would require a historic blend of stamina, shot-making, and usage.
Luka’s Early Explosion
Dončić’s 92-point start has reignited the discussion about whether he could be the modern player to break that barrier. His confidence, shot creation, and control of the offense give him the freedom to chase it. Through two games, he’s looked unstoppable — scoring from deep, posting up smaller guards, and punishing mismatches.
Still, early-season numbers are notoriously volatile. Defenses haven’t fully adjusted, and legs are fresh. The NBA grind tends to wear down even the most dominant players by December, let alone April.
Could Doncic, who has scored 92 points this season, average 40?
“Yes,” Reaves told ESPN.
Could Doncic average 40, and would it help the team win?
“Yes,” Reaves continued. “He’s so good, it’s weird.”
Why 40 PPG Is Nearly Impossible
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Defensive Adjustments: After two huge games, teams will start throwing double-teams, traps, and box-and-one looks at him. Dončić is too smart not to pass out of those, which will naturally lower his scoring volume.
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Team Balance: The Lakers built their roster to spread the floor and give Dončić help. For him to chase 40, his teammates would have to take major step-backs in touches and shots, something that could hurt chemistry.
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Fatigue and Durability: Averaging 40 means scoring around 3,200 points over 82 games. That level of physical and mental exertion is unsustainable, especially with the travel, back-to-backs, and potential injuries.
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Game Flow: The Lakers likely won’t need Dončić to play 40-plus minutes every night. Blowouts, rest days, and strategic management will all chip away at his averages.
What It Would Take
To pull it off, Dončić would need to take nearly 40 shots per game, hit a high percentage from three, get to the free-throw line 12 to 15 times a night, and rarely have off games. Even then, it would require a near-perfect storm of health, consistency, and opportunity.
The Bottom Line
Dončić’s first week of the season has been sensational and sets the stage for another MVP-caliber campaign. But 40 points per game is a number that belongs to the realm of basketball mythology.
If he finishes in the mid-30s while leading the Lakers deep into the playoffs, that would already be one of the greatest scoring seasons of the modern era. Luka may flirt with 40 for stretches — but over 82 games, it remains a dream, not a destination.
