As a lot of you may have noticed, the New York Jets have become a sexy pick to do some real damage in the AFC, picked by some to go as far as the Super Bowl. They went to the conference title game with a rookie quarterback, they beat teams with better records in the playoffs, and they’re coached by maybe the most entertaining personality roaming an NFL sideline. And to boot, they’ve added Santonio Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor. So they’re going to the Super Bowl like a lot of experts are claiming, right? WRONG!
Now I’m not saying they’re going to suck, but I think that anyone outside of hardcore Jet fans who’s thinking Super Bowl for these guys is just a little bit crazy. We’ve seen this before; team makes the playoffs, does a little damage, then loads up on free agents to get them over the top. In fact, I’ve seen it twice with my Redskins and let me tell you, that particular movie never ends well. It starts off like Ocean’s Eleven and ends like…..Ocean’s Twelve. There will probably be a good start to the season, but at some point it’s going to go down in flames for them. What makes me think that? Well, let’s see……
They weren’t that good to start with
The Jets went 9-7 and squeaked into the playoffs; one more loss and they would have been home. And if you remember back to week 16, the Colts would have put that one more loss on them if they didn’t decide to shut it down in the second half. They were up and in control of things, then went to their usual week 16/17 routine of pulling all the important people in the second half. The Jets left their starters on the field and rallied to a 29-15 win. The next week they blew out a Bengals team that wasn’t even trying because they had everything locked up already. Now the Bengals were struggling at that point in the season, so a win against their starters wasn’t out of the question. But that’s one or two wins they wouldn’t have if the opponent had simply like it mattered to them. And we’re supposed to believe that adding a few players to that makes a Super Bowl team?
Shonn Greene + LaDanian Tomlinson is not better than Thomas Jones + Shonn Greene
Last season Thomas Jones put up 1,402 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns in 16 starts. Greene played second fiddle in 14 games and racked up 540 yards with 2 touchdowns. The Jets sent Jones packing, believing that his fade during the playoffs was a sign of things to come given his age (31) and that Greene’s big splash (263 total yards in their first two playoff games) meant he was ready for prime time. So now Greene is supposed to duplicate what Jones did while LT is supposed to provide the 500 or so yards of yardage that Greene tallied once opposing defenses were worn down from dealing with Jones. And we have no idea if either man can do that.
LT has been in serious decline for the past two years, despite running behind a good offensive line and having a Pro Bowl quarterback to keep the extra men out of the box. He’s 30 years old, and has 10 years of carries behind him. He’s not the guy to break off the kind of game you need from a backup running back with a back-breaking 50 yard run or a surprise 100 yards game off the bench. Even at the beginning of last season, when his legs were freshest, he couldn’t get more than 4 yards a carry regularly. He’s done. And Greene has to prove himself over a full season. He had 144 of his 500 yards in one game during the regular season, and in the Jets third playoff game he wasn’t very effective despite being in a situation that is pretty much tailor made for a running back (his team was in the lead for most of the first half and part of the second against a team that isn’t at stopping the run). We can’t make any assumptions here yet.
Their QB isn’t good enough to win
Mark Sanchez was not very good last year. He threw for 2,400 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions on 53 percent passing. That is pretty awful. I know he was a rookie, but so was Joe Flacco two years ago. in fact, the comparison between the two makes sense. The Ravens went to the AFC championship game with Flacco as a rookie starter in 2008. His performance that year was significantly greater, 2,971 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on 60 percent passing. Flacco did improve this past season, but not enough to pull his team through when it mattered. An improved second year from Sanchez, where the interceptions come down and the good numbers go up might land him in the neighborhood of what Flacco did as a rookie. Which isn’t Super Bowl ready.
The other quarterback whose team had the same kind of success as Sanchez did his rookie year is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben went for 2,621 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 66 percent passing, and the Steelers went to the AFC championship game. The next season they won it all; Ben actually regressed a little in some areas but still played well over the course of the year (2,385 yards, 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on 62.7 percent passing in two fewer games). I’m sure Jet fans will tell you that Sanchez will be able to duplicate Big Ben’s sophomore performance, if not his numbers, and manage the game well enough for the defense to carry the day. I don’t think so. For one, there’s the accuracy issue. You don’t jump from a 53 percent passer to 60-plus overnight. And even if you the interceptions down to a respectable level, doing so this rapidly will require him to be put on such a short leash that he won’t be able to win games for them when they need it. As good as Flacco and Roethlisberger were in their second years, their teams still had win in spite of them on several occasions. Don’t expect any better from the Jets with Sanchez.
So to sum things up, if you want to get paid this season, look elsewhere. The Jets have way too many question marks to invest in.