The Cy Young award is expected to go to Zach Greinke in the American League because he has been lights out throughout the entire season and is well separated from the field as the AL leader in ERA. Greinke today has a 2.32 ERA, which does not happen often in the American league. The only AL starting pitcher to have a sub 2.40 ERA in the past ten years is Pedro Martinez. Greinke is in a class by himself right now.
In the National League, good pitching is more common. The leading candidates for Cy Young play for two teams, the Giants and the Cardinals. Starting with the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright has the most wins of any starter in the American league and will most likely eclipse 20 wins this season. Wainwright’s ERA is under 2.47 which is among the tops in the NL. Chris Carpenter is the ace of the Cardinals and leads the majors with a 2.20 ERA. The St. Louis Cardinals have pulled away in their division and will most likely make the playoffs. Chris Carpenter will be the front runner for Cy Young because he leads the MLB in ERA. In addition, sportswriters tend to reward big name players like Carpenter who lead their teams to a playoff run.
The SF Giants have Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain both performing at high levels. Both pitchers are serious Cy Young candidates. Lincecum is seen as the ace of the staff, but there is a month left in the season and Matt Cain can win the award by outpitching his teammate Lincecum and the candidates.
Lincecum has been praised since he first entered the league and sportswriters love him so he has the best chance of winning the award over Chris Carpenter, but the Giants are still trying to fight for a wild card spot. Since the Giants are not the leaders in their division, both Lincecum and Cain are underdogs to win the Cy Young award. Also, the Giants are competing with the Colorado Rockies to be the 2nd place team in the NL West. I do not see a way that Cain or Lincecum can win the Cy Young without making the playoffs.
The Cy Young race is entering its final stretch and all the candidates are deserving of the award. The sportswriters will have a difficult time deciding who should win the award for the National League, especially if the Cardinals win their division and the Giants also make the playoffs through Wild Card or winning the division. My prediction is that Tim Lincecum will win, not because he deserves it over Carpenter or the other leading candidates, but because ESPN and other sports media are enamored by him.
It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals manage their pitching staff down the stretch once they win the division because The Cardinals understand the importance of being rested and ready for the playoffs. They have been in this position before and Tony LaRussa seems like a coach who would prefer his pitching staff to get additional rest instead of trying to win a regular season award. Regardless of who wins the award for the NL, all the candidates mentioned have been superb and I do not envy whoever has to vote at the end of the season.