It’s time again for the NFL to roll around, with the preseason now in full swing. Fans received a little taste of what their teams have in store, and now, it’s our turn to tell you what WE think will happen. My job happens to be on the NFC North Division, better known as the Division Favre Built, Left, and Now Has More Questions Than Answers, No Matter How You Look At It…
Now, you might think I’m a hater. You are certainly welcome to that opinion. I grew up in Chicago, and despite some (not all) Vegas odds that the Bears will win the division, you will see I am a realist when you read my predictions. Here we go:
1. Minnesota Vikings (10-6 in 2008; prediction: 11-5 in 2009)
Major Offseason Pickups: QB Sage Rosenfels (HOU)
Major Offseason Losses: S Darren Sharper (NO); QB Gus Frerotte (major loss?)
The news everyone expected was not to be. Brett Favre spurned the team, after shoulder surgery in the offseason. Most people who saw him believed he could still bring it on Sundays. He believed he could bring it on Sundays…just not EVERY Sunday. If Favre had signed, the team might be completely fractured. There is still a faction of the team that believes in the now-beleagured Tarvaris Jackson. There is another faction that understands that trading for a quarterback, like the Vikings did with Sage Rosenfels from Houston, means he’s coming in to start, not ride the pine. Yet, the Brett Favre albatross would hang over the team, and though Hall of Fame-worthy, Favre certainly was coming off one of his worst seasons as a professional.
Maybe, luckily, the team gets to be drama-free without Favre. The team has a lot of great pieces still left and had a tremendous 2009 draft. So, let’s quickly go over why the team will do well and not-so-well…
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Adrian Peterson. Do I need to say anything else?
DE Jared Allen. The Vikings registered a very impressive 45 sacks in 2008, led by Allen’s 14. Some might remember Allen’s sack on Houston’s Matt Schaub last season, which sent Schaub out of the game, creating the opportunity for Rosenfels to get some playing time…leading to the offseason trade. Hmmmm…irony? Allen’s presence gives a lot of one-on-one blocking for the other members of the line (10 points if you can name them without looking it up…I know!). UT (undertackle) Kevin Williams notched eight sacks, and the defensive end on the other side, Ray Edwards, picked up five of his own. Despite Allen’s eccentricities, his motor constantly runs. The Vikings could care less about his signature mullet…just sack, baby…to paraphrase Al Davis.
The Williams Wall. When both Paul and Kevin Williams play, the run defense is amazing. The team was third against the run in 2008 (3.4 YPC), and it was because of the behemoths in the middle.
Ryan Longwell. For those who only remember 2006, Longwell looked pretty awful from distance. Connecting on only half (4 of 8) from 40+ doesn’t keep you in the game long. Come 2007, he was 11 of 15. In 2008, I’ll give you his 50+ numbers: 6-6. The guy was automatic. Unless he pulls a hamstring or suddenly becomes Public Enemy #1, don’t expect any major letdown by Longwell.
REASONS FOR PESSIMISM
The starting QB. Let’s face it: Tarvaris Jackson isn’t accurate. Sage Rosenfels is awful in the clutch, and has a tendency to put the ball on the floor if he’s touched from behind in the pocket (check the Indianapolis game from last year to see how bad that problem is…). Neither one of them has proven themselves to be world-beaters. If the Vikings lose, it’s likely to happen because either Adrian Peterson fumbles (which he has a tendency to do two games a year, but the other 14, he’s amazing. Most teams will accept the two off games, because he gives you a chance to win the other 14…) or the quarterback is awful. So, since the Vikings are likely to lose five or six games this season, the quarterback will lose twice as many games as Peterson. Now, Rosenfels is the early clubhouse leader for that position, and he’ll have a lot of weapons to throw to in Bernard Berrian, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, a finally healthy Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin. The problem: actually getting the ball to these speedsters. This is the main question about this team.
The defense. It’s amazing I say this with all the accolades I gave guys like Allen and the Williams Wall. To be honest, I love LB Chad Greenway (8 sacks in 2008) and CB Antoine Winfield. With all that pressure, and the great run defense, the team ranked only 13th in points allowed (20.8 per game), and they were ranked 22nd against the pass (7.2 yards per attempt). That must improve. Everything should match up, but it doesn’t. The problem arises in the secondary. Despite Winfield’s great 2008, he is 32 and likely to see a decreased production level. Part of it will be due to opposing quarterbacks not wanting to challenge him, the rest of it will be simple age. He’s still pretty damn good. Now, name another member of the secondary. Go ahead…I’m waiting…Can’t figure it out? Did I hear you say Darren Sharper? He left for New Orleans. Cedric Griffin is the corner on the opposite side from Winfield, and he’s not a good cover corner. SS Tyrell Johnson is an up-and-comer, but he’s only in his second year. He will make some mistakes. The biggest issue will be at free safety, where the oft-injured Madieu Williams didn’t really earn his five-year, $33.6 million contract last year by missing eight games. Depth behind the safeties and at corner is a huge issue coming into camp, and will remain so out of camp.
The Williams Wall. How can they be a positive AND a negative? Simple, the StarCaps ruling is expected to come down soon, and both Williamses (as well as a couple Saints DEs) have a four-game suspension hanging over their heads. If the suspension is upheld, that pressure will take a hit, with Fred Evans and Letroy Guion filling in. Doesn’t inspire that confidence, does it? Hold on…let’s see the first four games of the schedule: at CLE, at DET, home vs SF, and home vs GB. It’s possible the Vikings could win all four, or at least go 3-1 WITHOUT the Williamses here. OK, never mind…
Punt and kick coverage. The Vikes surrendered FOUR touchdowns on special teams in 2008. Coordinator Paul Ferraro was released and ST assistant coach Brian Murphy was tabbed to replace him. If he employs the same philosophy in 2009 Ferraro did in 2008, uh oh…
2. Green Bay Packers (6-10 in 2008; prediction: 9-7 in 2009)
Major Offseason Pickups: NT B.J. Raji (Draft); LB Clay Matthews (draft)
Major Offseason Losses: OT Mark Tauscher
2008 was a season in transition for the Pack. It was the first time since 1991 the man behind center was not named Favre. There were a great many Packer Backers at the beginning of the season that believed no one could bring it like Favre. After the season ended, those same Packer Backers were right behind Aaron Rodgers, ready to scream for several touchdowns to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. That, of course, leads to…
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The passing game. OK, so I already said it, but here’s the proof. Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 picks (all better than Favre did with the Jets in 2008), had a 7.5 yards per attempt mark, and rushed for four touchdowns. Rodgers did this in his first year as a regular starter. At the same time, yes, he struggled late in games a bit, with the Packers going 0-7 in games decided by four points or less. But, a quarterback with his experience can only improve, and with that, so will the numbers for Jennings (who already set career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns in 2008), and the fortunes for the team.
The defensive secondary. Before 2008, fans across the league believed the Pack secondary was just too old (at cornerback) or too inexperienced (at safety) to do anything. CB Charles Woodson enjoyed a resurrection, CB Al Harris played well, and FS Nick Collins went to the Pro Bowl for the first time. Harris turns 35 this season, and while he can still cover, Tramon Williams, who started nine games in 2008 and picked off five passes, waits in the wings for his spot. If there were an issue in the secondary, it would be SS Atari Bigby, who played in only five games in 2008 due to a leg injury. He has played well in the past (2007 playoffs, anyone…?), and if he’s healthy, he’ll bring the wood.
Home field advantage. Lambeau Field has seen the Packers go 102-35 there since 1992, the year Favre became a Green Bay Packer. While the Pack only went 4-4 there in 2008, a better Packer team will see much greener pastures there in 2009.
The schedule. Going 6-10 is not something Mike McCarthy wanted to ever do, but in 2009, that 2008 record brings them the Lions (twice, as usual), the Browns (as the division plays the AFC North), the Rams (they were bad on offense in 2008, and made NO improvements for 2009), the Buccaneers (Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich don’t strike fear in the hearts of most NFL teams…no offense, guys…), and the 49ers (though I believe Alex Smith will eventually be a very good quarterback, neither he or Shaun Hill will do a lot this year). That’s five wins right there, and they should get at least four more.
REASONS FOR PESSIMISM
The change to a 3-4 defense. Dom Capers is the mastermind behind the defense, and is now the defensive coordinator for the team. That’s wonderful…except the team has personnel for the 4-3. OLB/DE Aaron Kampman grumbled about making the transition to rush LB within the defense, and, really, he’s their best defensive player. If he’s unhappy, and can’t figure it out, what’s that going to do for the rest of the defense? LBs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are very talented, and will be the inside guys, but there’s already talk Hawk is getting outplayed by Des Bishop, a 6th round draft choice in 2007. NT B.J. Raji, the Pack’s 1st round choice this season, will help on the interior, but those surrounding him, Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins, are better suited for a 4-3. DT Johnny Jolly is still on the hook in Houston for a codeine possession charge (Seriously, police say he was ‘sipping on some sizzurp.’ I’m not kidding. It was a Dr. Pepper bottle that smelled of codeine. He had that ‘purple drank.’ If he’s found guilty, a suspension is forthcoming.). It is a little odd, since this happened during the offseason of 2008, and it still hasn’t gone to court yet, and may not until after the calendar year ends. I’ll use this as an example as to why this probably won’t work: When Mike Tomlin became the Steelers’ head coach, he brought with him a philosophy of the 4-3 Cover-2 defense. The team’s personnel was that for a 3-4, behind Dick LeBeau. Tomlin said, ‘Why change?,’ and it’s no wonder he went to the Super Bowl last year. Eric Mangini brought a 3-4 philosophy with him from New England to New York to coach the Jets, and utilized the defense, despite the personnel being that of a 4-3. Mangini was canned. It’s doubtful Capers will be fired after this year, and the Packers will likely make some personnel moves in the future to complete Capers’ vision, but this defense, which had an awful pass rush (only 28 sacks in 2008) and ranked 25th against the run (4.5 YPC), will be a unit in transition in 2009, and it could get ugly.
The running game. Don’t yell at me about how Ryan Grant was great last year, and I’m crazy for saying the offensive line is a weakness. I know what I’m talking about. Yes, Grant did very well for himself if you look at total numbers. 1,203 rushing yards is nothing to laugh at. His 3.9 YPC wasn’t great. He had only two runs of 22-yards or more, and had games of 39, 56 and 20 yards last year. Consistency has to be a lot better. Plus, as a receiver, Grant was usually replaced by Brandon Jackson.
The offensive line. Grant and Jackson have come to camp in shape and raring to go, but they both stand behind a line that needs improvement. RT Mark Tauscher wasn’t re-signed because he tore his ACL. The three men to compete for his position have a combined zero starts between them. LT Chad Clifton is coming off knee surgery, and he gave up 7.5 sacks in 15 starts in 2008. That number is way too high. LG Daryn Colledge gave up six sacks, and was called for six penalties in 2008. Center Scott Wells, who gave up 3.5 sacks of his own, is in danger of having RG Jason Spitz (a center in college) replace him to get Josh Sitton in the lineup. So, where’s the improvement here?
Punting. Not that punters ever get any notoriety, but Jeremy Kapinos is infamous in Green Bay with his horrific 39.2 average. Any improvement here would be a blessing, but the only new face to compete with Kapinos is Durant Brooks, who fared equally as well with the Redskins.
3. Chicago Bears (9-7 in 2008; prediction: 7-9 in 2009)
Major Offseason Pickups: QB Jay Cutler (DEN); OT Orlando Pace (STL); SLB Pisa Tinoisamoa (STL); OT/OG Frank Omiyale (CAR)
Major Offseason Losses: QB Kyle Orton (DEN); OT John Tait (retired); OT John St. Clair (CLE); FS Mike Brown (KC)
Bear fans still sting from losing the final game of the 2008 season to Houston, thus losing out on a chance to make the playoffs. But, let’s be honest…if the Bears made the playoffs last year, they really didn’t deserve it. The offense was much maligned, due to the quarterback inefficiencies. The defense couldn’t get any pressure, which made Lovie Smith’s (or should I say Bob Babich’s) Cover-2 look more like the Cover-0. But, the special teams was pretty decent, despite Devin Hester’s zero touchdown season on returns. Screams can be heard from outside Halas Hall for either Smith’s job, GM Jerry Angelo’s job, or both. Then, something magical happened…the team made a trade for a franchise quarterback. Jay Cutler could be the team’s first All-Pro quarterback since Sid Luckman in 1942. You’re reading that right…1942. There is a reason the Bears have so many running backs in the Hall of Fame and only one QB. Cutler could change that thinking…which leads to optimism and pessimism at the same time. I’ll go with the optimism first.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Cutler. Critics will say Cutler threw too many picks with Denver in 2008 (18). He did it in 616 attempts, and his interception percentage was almost equivalent to Kyle Orton’s in 465 attempts with the Bears. Denver’s defense was pitiful in 2008, leading Cutler to almost always play from behind. Still, Cutler threw for 4,526 yards and 25 touchdowns. That’s two seasons for Orton (OK, maybe not, but, admit it…Orton has limited arm strength and accuracy)! Devin Hester should improve on his numbers because Cutler can make all the throws. He’ll also open things up for Matt Forte and Kevin Jones in the backfield, so those rushing numbers, provided both of them are healthy (Forte strained a hamstring during OTAs and the Bears continue to go slow with his recovery in training camp), should also improve. The line won’t have to block as long because Cutler will get rid of the ball quickly.
Matt Forte. The second-year back out of Tulane rushed for 1,238 yards and scored 12 total touchdowns. He also led the team in receptions with 63, so he’s just another weapon at the disposal of Cutler, and the reason the Bears will still try to run the ball (despite his 3.9 YPC in 2008).
The offensive line. Ask my father, and he will tell you the line improved just by subtracting the two ‘chairs,’ as he likes to call them. Those ‘chairs’ were the bookend tackles, John Tait and John St. Clair. It was a tough year for both of them. For Tait, he played with a back injury that was never disclosed to the team. For his part, while admirable, wasn’t effective. St. Clair was better than Tait, but still not good enough to make holes for Forte. Enter Orlando Pace and Chris Williams. Pace is fresh, having played in about 20 games in the last three years, and an All-Pro tackle. Williams is manning the right side, and should be the team’s left tackle when Pace decides to hang it up. The new bookends should be able to actually block when they’re supposed to. C Olin Kreutz has been among the league’s best centers, and RG Roberto Garza graded out to be the team’s best lineman in 2008, and also one of the league’s best (hard to believe…). The other issue on the line is the competition at left guard. The Bears brought in Frank Omiyale to compete with incumbent Josh Beekman. While Beekman was OK, he still was a liability. Unless he improves, expect Omiyale to be the starter.
Special Teams. Devin Hester ran zero returns back for touchdowns in 2008. The transition for full-time receiver made that happen. Instead of doing all returns, he’ll only do punts, and only if he’s effective. The team actually has several people who can return kicks well: FS Danieal Manning returns kickoffs, and was great. WR Rashied Davis returned punts before Hester got to the Bears, and 5th round draft pick Johnny Knox saw some work in the preseason. CB Nathan Vasher is the backup to Hester returning punts as of this posting. The Bears are so bold, even rookie DE Henry Melton (all 285 pounds of him, a fullback at Texas before making the switch to DE) ran a kickoff back against Buffalo in the preseason. ST coordinator Dave Toub is one of the best in the business, and knows how to get the best of his units. This is before I say anything about Pro Bowl kicker Robbie Gould and maybe the most consistent punter over the last five years, Brad Maynard.
REASONS FOR PESSIMISM
Any opponent who runs the ball against the Bears is an idiot. If I were a member of the coaching staff of an opponent of the Bears, and involved in scouting the team, I would urge my team to NEVER RUN THE BALL. Not once. I’m not kidding. The Bears have no pass rush (only 28 sacks in 2008, and only one person had as many as six, DE Alex Brown, who had a very good 2008). The team was eighth against the run (3.7 YPC). But, the way to beat the Bears was easily demonstrated by the Tennessee Titans in the 2nd half of their game. The Bears held the Titans to -2 yards rushing in the first half, so the Tennessee squad pretty much abandoned the run in favor of quick slant passes and 15 yard skinny posts up the field. The Bills did the same thing in the Bears’ first preseason game of 2009. The Cover-2 scheme of the Bears makes the cornerbacks play 8-10 yards off the ball, making the team ripe for the pickings 7 yards downfield. They don’t want to give up the big play, which is great, but because they give up smaller ones of 5-6 yards consistently, the defensive unit NEVER GETS OFF THE FIELD. The point is to get off the field so the offense, which is much-improved this year, can get on and do its work. So, either the Bears have to change the scheme quickly, or Lovie and his staff will be looking for work very soon.
Cutler & Hester. Not saying these two are bad in any way, but there seems to be a tendency for Cutler to strictly look in Hester’s direction to throw. The team doesn’t have a great set of wideouts…wait, they have an AWFUL SET of wideouts. Cutler still has to stop his temptation to only look Hester’s way, and start getting more confidence in guys like Earl Bennett, Juaquin Iglesias and Brandon Rideau. If he doesn’t, Cutler will throw a lot more than 18 picks in less attempts in 2009.
The defense has a lot to prove. I already mentioned the Bear defense got zero pass rush in 2008. DT Tommie Harris (knee) played injured in 2008, and 2009 is starting in that fashion. The line gets some help in new defensive line coach Rod Marinelli, but if Harris isn’t healthy, and getting double-teamed, there won’t be any more pressure in 2009. CB Charles Tillman (back surgery) is out indefinitely, and the man replacing him in the starting lineup, Trumaine McBride, is basically nothing more than a dime back. The man on the other side, CB Nathan Vasher, is doing nothing to show he’s ready to return to his Pro Bowl form of 2006. Manning is atop the depth chart at free safety, but he doesn’t have the best instincts. He used to play nickel back, but he’s not a great cover guy. So, what position should he play? Craig Steltz topped the SS position during OTAs. He’s now 3rd string behind Kevin Payne (unless he moves to free safety due to the emergence of this next guy) and rookie Al Afalava. Did he suddenly become that bad? During the Bears’ Super Bowl run in 1985, the defense thought the offense never held up its weight (the Buddy Ryan theory), and there was some friction between the two units. It’s 24 years later, and this time, it could be the other way around. Yeah, no Super Bowl or even playoff run for the Bears this year…
4. Detroit Lions (0-16 in 2008; prediction: 5-11 in 2009)
Major Offseason Pickups: DT Grady Jackson (ATL); DT Shaun Smith (CLE); OLB Julian Peterson (SEA); MLB Larry Foote (PIT); CB Phillip Buchanon (TB); OT Jon Jansen (WAS); QB Matthew Stafford (draft)
Major Offseason Losses: QB Jon Kitna (DAL); DT Cory Redding (SEA)
When a team goes 0-16 for the first time in league history, the football world laughed. It forced Matt Millen out of his position three years too late. People wondered how Rod Marinelli kept his coaching job, seeing how the team declined over his tenure there. It led to his departure, and the hiring of Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz as the new head coach. Despite the front office still looked at as a joke, Schwartz has installed a new attitude, that is more than just “We have no place to go but up.”
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
The new attitude. There is a reason Jim Schwartz made the Titan defense into one of the more feared defenses in the league last season. Granted, the talent level was higher there than in Detroit (even now), but they walked with a swagger. It was more than Albert Haynesworth. Every player on the 11-man unit played a significant part in the team’s success. That is the big thing Schwartz brings to the Lions…swagger. The Lions need to learn to win, but believing they can is the first part. Schwartz immediately gives the team that belief. I will say this, though…Lion fans can blame Marinelli as much as they want, but the front office forgot it takes SOME talent to win in the NFL, and the Lions had virtually none in 2008. We’ll see if that improved in 2009…
“No place to go but up.” It’s true…they can’t be any worse than they were last year. They finally got their franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Kevin Smith had a great year under horrible circumstances in 2008. Scott Linehan is the new offensive coordinator, and reunites with Daunte Culpepper, who had his best years in Minnesota with him. The defense registered 30 sacks. Any improvements on offense and defense will greatly improve this team.
Calvin Johnson. Already one of the premier receivers in the NFL, he caught 78 balls for 1,331 yards and 12 TDs in just his 2nd NFL season. He had to do that with the likes of Culpepper and Dan Orlovsky throwing the pill around. Imagine if either Culpepper is upright (he didn’t have a lot of time to throw in 2008) or a solid signal-caller is behind center…
REASONS FOR PESSIMISM
The front office. Honestly, if it weren’t for guys who wanted to come home to Michigan, how many free agents did the Lions really get? Team president Tom Lewand and GM Martin Mayhew have been looked at as pitiful for close to the last five years, while each was still under the Millen regime. Getting the team started on the right track may be the turnaround needed to get the organization (and maybe the reputations of those two guys) back to respectability. Good luck, Schwartz, as the team and city rests on your shoulders.
The offensive line. Emphasis on offensive. Seriously. Really bad in 2008. It could be worse in 2009. Let’s go across the line. At left tackle is Jeff Backus, a man who has allowed an average of over 11 sacks per year over the last three. Don’t forget about his average of nine penalties per year over that span. Left Guard: Likely Daniel Loper, a free agent pickup from Tennessee, but he was a backup there. Center: Dominic Raiola. He’s not bad, but he’s not great, either. More of an average talent there. Same with RG Stephen Peterman. Nothing against Raiola or Peterman, but neither will make consistent Pro Bowls, but are OK up the middle. Right Tackle: Gosder Cherilus. Allowed six sacks and committed eight penalties in 13 2008 starts. Not as bad as Backus, but if those are your bookend tackles, Stafford may have to sit this season just to make sure he stays alive.
Did the defense improve enough? Getting Michigan State alum Julius Peterson is a big pickup, as their linebacking corps was terrible in 2008. Only Ernie Sims was held over from the 2008 starters at LB. Three of the four starters in the secondary are new: Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry at corner (though Henry was better as a safety in Dallas) and Marquand Manuel at free safety. Chemistry will be an issue, and so will the defensive line. The team lost DT Cory Redding. He tied up blockers, and they have no one else who can fill those shoes. Grady Jackson will help, but undertackle Chuck Darby is very light, and may be too small to be effective on the inside with this defense.
No home field advantage. Ford Field is the anti-Lambeau. The team is 47-57 at home since 1996. Then again, they’re also 20-84 on the road over the same span. Just bad, and no one knows if it really will get any better.
So, there it is. The NFC North…BEFORE the season starts.