Raise your hand if you can name your college or pro team’s third string quarterback? Now raise your hand if you even want to have to know who the third string quarterback on that team is. I think you get what I’m driving at here.
More times than none, if your team is having to go to your third string quarterback in a must win situation, you probably aren’t very optimistic about coming out on top in that instance. Cardale Jones is the rare instance in which not only did he give his team a chance to win, he excelled and exceeded expectations. Jones went from the outhouse to the penthouse in just three games and now has people saying that he should strike while the iron is hot and leave for the NFL. Is the NFL talk a bit premature ? Lets take a look at the big picture.
Just before the Big 10 Championship game I spoke with Cecil Martin and got his take on how his Badgers would do against a Buckeyes team that was limping into the matchup with a third string quarterback that nobody had heard of. Martin went on to say that Wisconsin would have to be careful and make sure that this young quarterback wouldn’t have his breakout performance against them. Three victories and a national championship later we are talking about what kind of NFL stock Jones has and if it would behoove him to take his talent to the league despite having only three starts under his belt. I’m here to say that we all need to pump the brakes and relax.
Yes, what Cardale Jones accomplished in three biggest games of the year given his experience is impressive. Yes, he has great physical tools, and has a ton of upside that could potentially translate to the NFL. Yes, it would be wise to make the jump before scouts get more film on you and are able to pick you apart. Yes, it would be wise to leave when he isn’t even guaranteed to be the starter in the fall. That’s about where I see the upside of leaving Ohio State ending for Jones.
Now let get to the not so fun part about Jones leaving for the NFL.
- He has has only started THREE games at the college level. Scouts typically are cautious about guys who have one great year of production, Jones only has three games to his resume.
- He doesn’t have a lot of tape available for scouts to evaluate. This is a double edged sword for Jones. While it sounds great that he doesn’t have many flaws on tape, Jones being a bit of an unknown will scare teams. You want to know both sides of the coin before drafting a guy.
- Scouts will tear him a part one way or the other. It’s the nature of the beast, nobody is shielded from criticism during the draft process.
- The risk is extremely high. High upside projects have gotten many coaches and GMs fired in the NFL, how do we know Jones will be any different?
- He will have to sit and mature. Jones is still a work in progress, he will not be an instant starter for anyone right now. He will have to go into the right situation and right system where he has time to learn from a veteran.
- He benefited from monster games from Ezekiel Elliott and his offensive line in all three starts. Lets not act like Cardale put the entire team on his back during his run. Zeke set rushing records in the Big 10 title game, Sugar Bowl, and National Championship game. He was every bit as important as Jones was.
- He is coming from a spread system. College quarterbacks coming into the NFL out of spread systems have had much more transitioning to do compared to quarterbacks coming out of pro style offenses. Limited experience+ Urban’s spread system= a problematic transition to the NFL.
- The NFL is a different beast from college. Cardale Jones isn’t the first of his kind and he won’t be the last. Many like him have failed before and more like him will fail after. NFL coaches will expose any and all weaknesses he has once tape is out there on him.
I don’t want people to think I am hating on the kid or the things he has accomplished in a short time span because that’s not what’s happening. To basically come off the bench cold and guide the offense to three huge wins and about impressive as you can get. All that said, I will not sit here and say that I think Cardale Jones is ready for the NFL, because I don’t think he is. Taking Jones in the draft would be like a college coach judging whether to offer a kid strictly off his highlight tape without actually doing their homework and watching him extensively. I think the upside is definitely there for Jones, but I simply have to see what he does for an encore in college before I would put my job on the line and use a draft pick on the kid. I am not the only one who shares this opinion.
Spoke to an NFL scout about the possibility of Cardale Jones going to the NFL now: "It'd be insane." Needs much more reps/experience.
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) January 13, 2015
And for the crowd that likes numbers, here are Jones’ stats for the three games he started.
12/6 | Wisconsin | W 59-0 | 12 | 17 | 257 | 70.6 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 255.8 | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 20 | 0 | 82.0 | 90.4 |
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL – SEMIFINAL | |||||||||||||||||
1/1 | Alabama | W 42-35 | 18 | 35 | 243 | 51.4 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 113.5 | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 27 | 0 | 56.0 | 71.8 |
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PRES. BY AT&T | |||||||||||||||||
1/12 | Oregon | W 42-20 | 16 | 23 | 242 | 69.6 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 163.6 | 21 | 38 | 1.8 | 17 | 1 | 58.0 | 65.7 |
Those numbers include his passing, rushing and QBR for all three games. Take away Zeke Elliott’s monster performances and focus solely on Jones. Where would you take Cardale Jones if you were an NFL GM? Early? Middle rounds? Late? Or UDFA?
For me if he came out right now he would be a middle to late round pick that I would stash for development purposes. That’s where I’m at folks.