This fight is so hard to predict because the issues between the two fighters are so clear.
Even though he has been a two-time Super Middleweight champion, David Benavidez has never indeed fought anyone at even a B-Level.
Benavidez’s best win is Anthony Dirrell, a guy that Caleb Plant knocked out cold, something Benavidez couldn’t do. No one knows how Benavidez will react against someone who has been a natural super middleweight his entire career and is an elite boxer.
Caleb Plant has a slightly better resume, but he gets more credit for a loss to Canelo than any of his wins. He has a reputation as a fast starter but who can be broken down in later rounds. Plant’s power might be a bit underrated because he can put his opponents on the seat of their pants if they make mistakes.
If you are Team Benvadiez, you likely think that the constant pressure will eventually be too much for Plant, and he will stop Plant in the middle to late rounds.
If you are Team Plant, you likely think that Benavidez is a one-dimensional fighter, and Plant will be able to box circles around Benavidez, and either will win by clear decision or possibly stop him late as Benavidez wears down.
There is a question if Benavidez’s weight drained or if he overtrained after he weighed in at 166 pounds at the weigh-in. Both men have a lot of prove, which is a bit of a crossroads fight for both.
Plant wants to show that he won’t fold and is on the level of the Canelos of the world. Benavidez, who has never truly been challenged his whole career, wants to live up to the Mexican Monster title.
The fight can go so many ways.
It could be over in the first round or have high drama to the 12th round. In the end, I think this is more about Plant than Benavidez. You know what you are going to get from Benavidez. He is either going to run through Plant, or he isn’t. Plant can’t win on the back foot the entire time.
What is always the key when a pressure fighter goes against a boxer is can the boxer stand his ground enough and get the respect of the pressure fighter to keep him off him and impress the judges.
One overlook talent of elite boxers is their ability to stunt a pressure fighter’s offense because they don’t know where the punches are coming from, and when they do land, they hurt.
The boxer is always doing a delicate dance with the pressure fighter. You have to be in the pocket enough and be busy enough to win rounds while avoiding staying in exchanges too long. You have to be in elite condition to do that.
Both Plant and Benavidez seem highly motivated to shut the other one up, but the longer the fight, the better it will be for Plant since Benavidez will likely come out guns blazing.
Plant by 12 round Unanimous decision is the pick.