The Boston Celtics are most definitely in a win-now window right now, if they weren’t previously. Jaylen Brown will receive the largest salary in NBA history thanks to the Celtics’ agreement to sign him to an extension on Tuesday.
The two-time All-Star, whose current Hall of Fame probability (based on a model that analyses all Hall of Fame voting to date) is at 0.1 percent, will earn a further $28.5 million in 2023–2024 on top of that, for a total of $332.5 million.
We might be a little desensitised when Kylian Mbappé is offered a one-year, $776 million deal to play football in Saudi Arabia and the “richest contract in NBA history” appears to make headlines every year or two.
But for everyone but a small group of people who have or will walk the world, $332.5 million is an amount that is inconceivable. It’s also completely assured, as is frequently the case in the NBA.
What does it mean for the company if Boston helped Brown on his way to becoming a billionaire?
Again, it better be prepared to win right now. As of right now.
According to Spotrac, the 2023–24 Celtics have almost $177 million in taxable compensation on their books. They currently owe $21.7 million in luxury taxes, falling just $5 million short of the second salary-cap apron.
To put it another way, they aren’t avoiding paying taxes this year. They’re expected to remain a repeater-tax club even when the cap rises in the future and they could be in line for new, stringent penalties that come with exceeding the second apron.
Boston added two additional years and $60 million to the contract of new big man Kristaps Porziis in addition to signing Brown to this extension. Next summer, Jayson Tatum will almost probably receive his own record-breaking supermax as well. They are unable to pay Brown this salary while refusing to do the same for Tatum.
More than $180 million will be committed to Brown, Tatum, Porziis, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Robert Williams III, and Al Horford alone in the 2024–25 season.
For simply Brown, Tatum, and Porziis the following season, they may need to budget around $140 million.
According to Spotrac, the 2024–25 salary ceiling, luxury-tax line, and second apron are presently anticipated to be $142 million, $172 million, and $190 million, respectively. The following won’t be permitted for the Celtics if they start that season operating over the second apron:
Include cash when making trades, use the taxpayer mid-level exception to sign free agents, sign a player on the buyout market whose prior salary exceeded the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, send outgoing players in a sign-and-trade, trade picks with a seven-year expiration date, or utilise a trade exception from a previous year.
In other words, under the new collective bargaining agreement, team formation has become considerably more challenging for second-apron teams. For at least the foreseeable future, the Celtics appear to be one of those clubs.
The only option may be to trade Brown or Porziis before their contracts expire. This may be the reason ESPN’s Zach Lowe suggested on his Lowe Post podcast on Tuesday that Brown would finish this contract with another team.
This analysis might be revised if the league receives a further infusion of funding following the 2024–25 season from a new broadcast rights agreement. However, “cap smoothing” clauses that will stop a salary boom like the one we experienced in 2016 have already been agreed upon by the owners and players.