The NFL is a league of unpredictability, thrilling for the fans but hard on the bettors. There is so much at stake, and picking winners is no easy task. Things get a lot more difficult when you talk about NFL picks against the spread. Over time, the NFL betting scene has grown huge, with fans and bettors seeking some kind of edge in making smart predictions. Okay, so how do you pick against the spread, and where can some solid prediction picks be found? Dive into some timeless trends that’ll have you out in front of your game every season.
Understanding NFL Picks Against the Spread
To pick NFL picks against the spread, first, you must understand what the spread means. The point spread is how a bookmaker evens the playing field between two teams. That means the favored team needs to win by more than a certain number of points—think of it as by more than the spread for gamblers to collect—while the underdog just needs to lose by fewer points than the spread or win straight up. For instance, if the Dallas Cowboys are -7.5 against the New York Giants, they must win by at least 8 points for a bettor to win a bet on the Cowboys.
It’s about more than just guessing who wins; it’s about predicting whether or not a team will cover the spread. Secret factors in picking consist of such things as injuries, home-field advantage, and matchups.
Where to Find Reliable NFL Prediction Picks
Distinguishing between trustworthy NFL prediction picks can become a chore, with so many experts, websites, and algorithms doling out advice. First and foremost, one should refer to sites reserved for NFL picks and parlays: ESPN, NFL.com, and other sites dedicated to sports analytics. Certain bettors like to invest their funds into a subscription-based service that offers in-depth, detailed analysis from professional handicappers. Others might enjoy tapping into a variety of free picks from reputable sources such as Pro Football Focus and CBS Sports.
Keeping a pulse on various experts’ consensus picks can also give you a sense of where the lean of the betting public is, but again, always take the time to do your own research and stay away from following trends blindly.
Key Stats to Look For When Making NFL Picks
Key statistics to focus on when making your NFL picks and parlays are much bigger than a win-loss record. Things such as yards per play, turnover differential, third-down conversion rates, and red-zone efficiency all help explain how a team executes in high-pressure moments. Also, paying attention to a team’s record ATS can be just as valuable as their overall performance.
Take, for example, the New England Patriots during the Bill Belichick era. They have always been great to the underdog, but not every great team is great at beating the number. A hot trend that shouldn’t be ignored is keeping a close eye on how teams perform ATS over time.
How to Pick Against the Spread
Home-field advantage is real, but not all teams are created equal when it comes to playing at home. Some teams dominate in a home stadium, while others struggle to beat the spread. Then some teams are true road warriors and consistently beat the spread away from home.
When evaluating NFL picks against the spread, pay extra consideration to a team’s road versus home performance. The Seattle Seahawks have become the gold standard for home-field advantage, but keep in mind that some teams’ road success drastically changes from year to year, and sometimes there is that big payoff for going deeper into team trends.
Betting Trends to Watch
Each season has its own set of hot trends, but a few themes just seem to keep popping up. One such trend involves underdogs getting it done over the first few weeks of the season. Sure enough, historically speaking, underdogs have performed well against the spread early in the season as oddsmakers adjust their lines from preseason expectations.
Another trend to keep an eye on is performance based on the bye week of teams. Well-coached teams often respond much better with added rest, and this could be one of the deciding factors for midseason picks.
Can You Trust NFL Expert Picks?
This begs the question on every bettor’s mind: Are NFL expert picks reliable? Not as simple as that. Expert picks can definitely serve as a good guideline toward the right decisions but are most certainly not foolproof. The idea here is to take such expert advice and combine it with your research and instinct.
Some experts have a good track record in things like prop bets or point spreads, while others are better at showing trends. Either way, do not depend on them entirely; just use their input for one piece of your overall strategy.
Staying Updated on NFL Betting Trends Throughout the Season
Keeping current with the betting trends in the NFL is key to long-term success. This will be best achieved by reading content from trusted sports sources. Websites include but aren’t limited to Rotoworld, The Athletic, and Action Network, which give in-depth analyses and current trends throughout the season.
Social media is another powerful tool, with Twitter often a source for real-time injury updates and information on how the betting lines are moving. Keeping track of the line movement will indicate where the sharp money is going and, therefore, give you ideas as to which side of the line the action from professional bettors is going to.
Giving NFL Picks a Little More Oomph
Beyond just the traditional point spreads and over/under, the best NFL prop bets have grown in popularity among those who wager. Prop bets are dependent on the performance of a single player or action within the confines of the contest itself, be it how many touchdown passes a quarterback will toss or how many rushing yards a running back will gain.
Prop bets add a layer of fun to the game, but can they be profitable at all? Of course, if you do your homework. Examples might be that some players always fared well against certain defenses or in certain conditions. If you know your trends, then prop bets can become a key part of your betting arsenal.
Final Notes
Knowledge is power when trying to make NFL picks against the spread. It’s really all about recognizing the trends, comparing different statistics, and knowing just how things change throughout a given season. While experts and predictions are good ways to gain insight, an ability to blend such bets with your knowledge regarding team trends and player performances will make something a bit reliable because such things grow. Pay attention to the injuries, stay on top of the line movement, and do not be afraid to bet on an underdog when the numbers fall in your favor.
