The 2016 NFL season is finally here. Now we can talk about conference and Super Bowl favorites, and it will actually mean something. So let’s do that. We’ll discuss the top three Super Bowl contenders, as determined by Bovada’s futures odds, then throw out one dark horse to investigate and one could-be contender you should most definitely avoid.
Have a look at the entire 2016-17 NFL schedule, find out the best betting lines for every game and heed some tips on how to make more money from your NFL bets.
Favorites
Green Bay Packers (+600)
The Green Bay Packers’ odds have shifted recently, making them Bovada’s favorite to win the Super Bowl. It’s not hard to see why, either. The NFC is laden with talented what-ifs and potential powerhouses, but Green Bay’s path to the NFC North division title is pretty much clear.
Indeed, the Minnesota Vikings profiled as a possible threat. They won the division last year, boast a staunch defense and had an outside shot at improving a great deal on the offensive side. But that all changed once Teddy Bridgewater went down with a torn patella tendon. He is out for the rest of the season, at the very least, and has been replaced by Sam Bradford. Some will argue this is a lateral move. It’s not. Teddy B is an up-and-coming stud; Bradford is riding the wave of marginal success through fractions of different seasons.
All of which, while devastating, is good news for the Packers. They are heavy division favorites (-275) and guaranteed a playoff appearance, with a strong chance at gaining a buy week and home-field advantage to open up the postseason. And remember, getting that far is half the battle, hence why the Aaron Rodgers-piloted Packers are such an intriguing draw.
New England Patriots (+650)
To think, the New England Patriots were one Teddy Bridgewater injury away from leading the Super Bowl pack, even though Tom Brady is suspended for a quarter of the season. That tells us all we need to know.
Sure, the Patriots might struggle up until Week 5. But that’s not really a huge deal. They could go 0-4 without Brady and still traipse their way to 11 or 12 victories upon his return. They are that good at full bore and their schedule, relative to the rest of the league, is that easy.
We won’t, however, be talking about a 0-4 Pats team when Brady suits up under center. Jimmy Garappolo is unknown commodity, yet ranks as one of the game’s better backups. The Patriots have some depth to carry them in the backfield, namely LeGarrette Blount and James White, if he can’t establish himself as a strong passer and the team’s defense is wildly underrated.
Plus, the only game New England really has to worry about is its season-opening tilt against the Arizona Cardinals. Every other game without Brady is very winnable, and every game after his return, barring further setbacks, should be penciled in as a win. The Pats are once again on 13-win watch until further notice.
Seattle Seahawks (+900)
People are sleeping on the Seattle Seahawks this year, which is a weird thing to say when they have the third-best Super Bowl odds in the league. They are still looked at as this defensive juggernaut that just about gets by on offense, when nothing could be further from the truth.
The defense will be great. That’s a given. But the offense really started coming into its own last season. Running back Marshawn Lynch will be missed, but his successor, Thomas Rawls, is basically him, only two inches shorter. The real key, though, is the continued development of Russell Wilson, who, with his combination of precise passing and effective feet, ranked as one of the best quarterbacks in 2015.
Maybe you don’t believe Wilson will share the same connection with wideout Doug Baldwin at the end of last season, and that’s fine. But the Seahawks’ defense is now so much more than one facet or a single one-two punch. They have weapons all around Wilson, their greatest weapon of all. They should contend for top-five status on both sides of the ball and, subsequently, flirt with 12 or more wins.
Dark Horse Pick
New York Giants (+1800)
It’s usually a bad sign when someone is talking about the New York Giants. They prefer to fly under the radar, as a clutch team that sneaks up on its opponents, stumbles into the postseason and makes a whole lot of noise. When they’re talked about, it’s typically because they are bad, as they were over each of the last three seasons.
That’s different now. This team is bringing back a deeper version of the same offense that ranked sixth in points scored per game last season, and their historically bad defense from 2015 has received an adequate boon from a free-agent spending spree.
On top of that, the path to an NFC East division title shouldn’t be too difficult. The Dallas Cowboys are trotting out a rookie quarterback, Dak Prescott, now that Tony Romo is on the shelf for most of the year, and the Philadelphia Eagles officially threw in the towel by trading Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings.
If there was ever a season not to sleep on the Giants, it’s now. So don’t be like the rest. Board their dark-horse bandwagon in advance.
Fool’s Gold Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1100)
Yes, we get it. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a polarizing squad. But that doesn’t mean they’re in good shape to contend for a Super Bowl. They could be, make no mistake. For now, they just feel overrated.
Losing the suspended Martavis Bryant for an entire season is going to sting. He has no clear replacement alongside Antonio Brown, and that will make life harder on the Steelers’ No. 1 wideout.
Running back Le’Veon Bell is also suspended for part of the year. DeAngelo Williams is a solid stopgap, but he doesn’t pose the same upside as a pass-catcher.
And let’s not pretend that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, an unequivocal superstar, is all of a sudden the billboard for health. He has played a full 16-game season just three times in 12 years and is going to get banged up sitting in the pocket behind a lackluster offensive line.
Yes, a rather weak AFC contender’s field buoys the Steelers’ stock. But, on paper, they just don’t have what it takes to usurp their foremost competition.
Final Picks
AFC Champion: New England Patriots
NFC Champion: Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl Champion: New England Patriots
