Week 4 of the NFL season is the first round of bye weeks, and this element adds another layer of strategy for fantasy football owners. There are 6 teams on bye; Denver, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. There are many players from all 6 of these teams that will leave some fantasy owners scrambling to insert players into their lineups. Week 4 is important for fantasy football; teams that are 0-3 definitely can’t afford to go 0-4 and expect to make the playoffs, while teams that are 1-2 or 2-1 would prefer to start gaining separation from the pack. For this week’s start and sit column, we will try to decipher which players will serve as the best bye week replacements and keep your fantasy team afloat.
Quarterbacks to Start
Eli Manning, Giants: Manning’s ownership percentage is up to 40% now in ESPN leagues and I have to guess that most people are picking him up to plug-and-play for week for their 4 against the Redskins, who allow the 13th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s. Last week Eli was finally able to connect with Victor Cruz for their first TD of the season, and they should be able to revisit that connection with Washington’s top CB Deangelo Hall lost for the season. If you are a Peyton Manning owner and looking for a bye week replacement, insert his little brother Eli, and reap the benefits.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Roethlisberger will be facing the unreliable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, and should be able to take advantage of them through the air. Roethlisberger has connected with his #1 wide out Antonio Brown for 3 TD’s already this season, and I expect him to get the other pass catchers involved this week. Not to mention that the Steelers have been using a big dose of Le’Veon Bell in the passing game as well, look for a big week from Big Ben.
Joe Flacco, Ravens: Someone has to throw the ball to Steve Smith in his revenge game against his old team the Carolina Panthers. Do not be surprised to see Flacco have a big game at home against the Panthers. Flacco will also probably get his #1 wide out from last year Torrey Smith involved in the game plan finally this year, and fantasy owners should not fret over the loss of tight end Dennis Pitta, as Owen Daniels is a more than capable replacement in the Gary Kubiak offense.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Nick Foles, Eagles: Foles’ hot streak has to come to an end at some point right? Right?! This is almost serving as the perfect trap game for the Eagles, having to travel across the country to face the San Francisco 49ers that are 1-2 and in desperate need of a bounce back win. I expect the 49ers defense to come out a lot more focused than they have been over the last 2 weeks, and force Foles into some timely errors.
Geno Smith, Jets: Smith finds himself with a very tough matchup of having to face the Detroit Lions front 7 led by Ndamukong Suh, who will undoubtedly put pressure on the mistake prone QB. Smith finds himself at a very critical juncture for his season and career; another turnover filled game, and Rex Ryan may be inclined to give the veteran Michael Vick a look.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: Tannehill has been dealing with controversy all week from having to answer qestions about his status as the team’s starter after Coach Joe Philbin gave him a less than ringing endorsement. Tannehill also will face an Oakland Raiders defense who has been surprisingly efficient this season ranking as the 6th overall defense against the pass. Combine that with Tannehill having thrown more INT’s (18) than TD’s (17) away from home, and this could be a long trip across the pond.
Running Backs to Start
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys: Murray leads all NFL RB’s in carries and yards, and that trend does not appear to be stopping anytime soon. The Cowboys seem to be very committed to running the ball for the 2014 season, and as long as Murray stays healthy, he will be an elite fantasy option. This week Murray gets the New Orleans Saints defense who has allowed a whopping 17.3 fantasy points per game to starting RB’s thus far in the 2014 season.
Eddie Lacy, Packers: Eddie Lacy has not gotten off to the start that many of his fantasy owners expected when they drafted him in the first round. Lacy has been the victim of some very tough run defenses through the first 3 weeks (Seahawks, Jets, Lions) and his production has suffered because of it. This week Lacy gets to face the Chicago Bears defense who has allowed 4.9 per carry. Expect lacy to get out of his slump and to produce only show up to the standard that his owners expect.
Donald Brown, Chargers: Brown finds himself as the only show in town in the Chargers backfield after injuries to Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead. Brown is a sheer volume play, as he received 31 carries last week against the Buffalo Bills. This week Brown will face the Jacksonville Jaguars who have allowed 160 rushing yard per game. Sign me up for any RB receiving that type of workload against a weak defense.
Running Backs to Sit
Chris Johnson, Jets: After watching the Jets play on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears it was very apparent that Chris Ivory is the running back to own for the Jets. Johnson averages 3.5 yards per carry to Ivory’s 5.7 ypc. Johnson’s fantasy value may solely rest on whether or not Ivory is in the lineup.
Reggie Bush, Lions: Bush is splitting playing time almost directly 50/50 with Joique Bell, and that does not bode well for his fantasy prospectus going into a tough matchup against the NY Jets. The Jets allow a league low 5.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RB’s, and I do not expect Bush to break the trend.
Shonn Greene, Titans: It’s only a matter of time before Bishop Sankey takes over as the starter in the Titans backfield. Greene is exactly who we thought he was, a plotter of a RB with no wiggle or explosiveness through the hole.
Wide Receivers to Start
Julio Jones, Falcons: I think it would be safe to say that Jones is fully recovered from last year’s foot surgery that prematurely ended his season. Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards with 365 yards, and his targets should only continue to rise with Roddy White and Harry Douglass hampered with injuries.
Reggie Wayne, Colt: Wayne still remains the most targeted receiver in the Colts offense, and with TY Hilton nursing a sprained ankle, look for Wayne to use his veteran savvy to take advantage of the Tennessee Titans secondary.
Brandin Cooks, Saints: Cooks has emerged as one of Drew Brees’ favorite targets this season. Cooks led the Saints in Targets and Catches in their first win of the season last week against the Minnesota Vikings, and this week he gets the inconsistent Dallas Cowboys defense. Look for Cooks to take advantage of his matchups with disgruntled Cowboys corner Mo Claiborne, and allow Brees to open up the Saints offense with the deep threat.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Keenan Allen, Chargers: No player has suffered the second season regression more than Keenan Allen, who has failed to have any fantasy impact thus far in the 2014 season. The most disappointing thing about Allen’s situation is that the Chargers are playing well without him having big numbers, so it leaves them less inclined to force feed him the ball. Earlier this week I wrote about why teams should add Malcolm Floyd because if his chemistry with QB Phillip Rivers, and it appears as if Floyd and not Allen can be considered the #1 option in San Diego.
Kendall Wright, Titans: Wright had emerged as the #1 pass catcher in Tennessee last season, but has gotten off to a slow start in 2014. Wright faces a tough matchup in the NY Jets defense, and also faces uncertainty with who will even be playing QB for the Titans on Sunday, with Jake Locker battling a wrist injury. Wright should be on your bench until further notice.
Eric Decker, Jets: Decker is battling a hamstring injury, and cannot be trusted in your fantasy lineup until he proves that he has regained that explosiveness from last season. Geno Smith playing terrible at QB also is not doing him any favors.
Tight Ends to Start
Greg Olsen, Panthers: Olsen is one of the most consistent tight ends in fantasy purely based on his role in the Panthers offense. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Olsen ranks as the 4th overall fantasy TE. Olsen is second on the Panthers team in targets to rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin, and he is primed for a breakout game Sunday in Baltimore.
Vernon Davis, 49ers: The 49ers have gone 0-4 without Davis in the lineup since coach Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco. Look for Davis to get back on the field this week against the Eagles and help lead the 49ers to a much needed bounce back win.
Jason Witten, Cowboys: Witten has struggled to find his groove this season, and many analysts do not consider him an elite fantasy option anymore. The Cowboys have a primetime game Sunday night against the New Orleans Saints, and Witten has a tendency of showing up as a leader in big spots for the Cowboys. You should play him with confidence this week, but also temper expectations going forward if you were relying on him to be an elite option for you this season.
Tight Ends to Sit
Delanie Walker, Titans: Walker has been a favorite target of QB Jake Locker over the first 3 weeks of the season, but the only problem is Locker has a wrist strain that could limit him in Sunday’s game against the Colts. It will be hard to get away from playing him with 6 teams on bye this week, but if you can, look for another option to plug in at TE.
Charles Clay, Dolphins: Clay has gotten off to a slow start this season, and has disappointed many fantasy owners who took a mid-round flyer on him after he finished last season as a top 10 fantasy TE. Clay is coming into Sunday’s game listed as questionable with a knee injury, and should not be in anyone’s fantasy lineup. As a matter of fact, Clay is a prime drop candidate if you need extra roster space.
Defense and Special Teams to Start
Chargers: The Chargers get a rookie QB in Blake Bortles, traveling across the country to play on the road. Yes please.
Steelers: Even though the Steelers are dealing with a rash of injuries, I expect them to be able to contain the Mike Glennon lead Bucs to a modest scoring output.
Bills: The Bills front seven has been wreaking havoc on opposing QB’s and this Sunday should be no different as they face Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is known for holding on to the ball too long in the pocket.