The first thing we need to do is showcase some of the greatest boxing upsets of all-time.
The one everyone thinks of immediately is……
Buster Douglas beating Mike Tyson.
Mike Tyson at this time was considered an unbeatable monster who made opponents pee themselves before they even got in the ring. In retrospect, we know now that Tyson was primed for a downfall, but no one expected it to be Buster Douglas, but all the stars aligned for what is considered by some the biggest upset in all of sports.
But there were more notable upsets in boxing history.
Hasim Rahman over Lennox Lewis, Frankie Randall over Julio Cesar Chavez (JCC was 89-0-1 at the time), a young Cassius Clay over Sonny Liston, Antonio Tarver vs. Roy Jones Jr (Roy was undefeated as well and spawned what forever would be known as the Tarver punch), Max Schmeling over Joe Louis and Leon Spinks over Muhammad Ali to name a few.
Before we talk about where a Berto win would be in world of boxing upsets, let’s first talk about what Berto needs to do to win.
Almost all boxing upsets have a combination of a couple of things.
The three main ingredients for a boxing upset are.
1- A highly motivated underdog who is Clubber Lang mode (Mr. T deserves an Oscar for this).
https://youtu.be/S-ntFroiHOA
2- The favorite being distracted and not taking his opponent seriously.
3- There is some slippage in the favorite’s skill set either from age or lack of preparation.
Only Berto knows how motivated he is. As far as Mayweather, one of the things that has made him great is no matter the opponent he doesn’t slack off. But with all the talk of retirement and his age, you wonder if there is enough slippage in skills and focus to give Berto a chance.
In the ring Berto is at an extreme disadvantage because he lacks basic defensive skills. Fighting slower and less skilled opponents Berto has been easily hit by all. Most of those opponents didn’t mind slugging with him, Mayweather won’t do that.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Mayweather connected with 50% of his punches.
But, there is a reason “The Tarver Punch” exists. It only takes one punch to change the complexion of a fight and frankly a legacy.
If by some chance Berto would win, I don’t think it would be as big of an upset as Tyson vs. Douglas. Tyson was in his prime and seen as a mythical god.
It would be more in line with Ali losing to Spinks or Tarver beating Jones, where age more than anything else allowed a lesser opponent an opportunity to win.
We will see what happens Saturday night.